Well, the NHL draft lottery did not go the way the Boston Bruins would have wanted. They wound up dropping two spots – the most that they could – and will now pick seventh overall in June’s draft.
Bruins hit bad luck in draft lottery
How much that drop hurts comes down to how big of a gap you think there is between the third- and seventh-best prospects in this draft. And the answer to that might depend on who you ask.
The one tier that everyone seems to agree on is the very top tier, which features two players: defenseman Matthew Schaefer and center Michael Misa. The Bruins entered the lottery with a 17% chance of landing a top-two pick, but the ping pong balls didn’t bounce their way.
After that, the next tier might be from three through five or six, which would cut off right before the Bruins’ pick and leave them selecting from the third tier. Or – again, depending on who you talk to – picks three through nine or 10 might be so jumbled together that it’s not even worth splitting that group into two tiers. If you believe that, then dropping from five to seven isn’t the end of the world.
Personally, I think there is still a 3-6 tier, one that features – in some order – right wing Porter Martone and centers James Hagens, Caleb Desnoyers and Anton Frondell. But the gap from that tier to the next one isn’t as big as it once may have seemed. That next tier, probably from seven through 10, features winger Victor Eklund and three more centers: Jake O’Brien, Brady Martin and Roger McQueen. You could make a case for defensemen Radim Mrtka, Kashawn Aitcheson and Jackson Smith in that range, too.
The reality is that this draft just isn’t rich on star power, and you may very well be looking at a bunch of second-liners after the top two. That’s not to say there isn’t first-line potential among the names above – they pretty much all have it, in fact – but it’s more ceiling than expectation.
Because the picture might not be very clear after the top two, it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see someone from that “second” tier drop to the Bruins at seven. So, we’re still going to include those players on this list – with the acknowledgment that the last three players on this list are more realistic for them than the first four.
James Hagens, C, Boston College (NCAA)
Hagens entered the season as the projected No. 1 pick, but slipped a little after “only” putting up 37 points (11 goals, 26 assists) in 37 games as an 18-year-old freshman at BC.
That might seem harsh, but it is fair to an extent. Macklin Celebrini (1.68 points per game), Jack Eichel (1.78) and Adam Fantilli (1.81) all blew that production out of the water at the same age, and that’s probably the level required to be seriously considered for first overall. Hagens’ production this season was more in line with what Kent Johnson and Matty Beniers did as freshman teammates at Michigan in 2020-21, which is still a really solid place to be.
Hagens could slip to the tail end of the top five, but it would still be surprising if he made it to the Bruins at seven. His skillset and the rest of his resume are too good. In 2023-24, he had 102 points in 58 games with the U.S. Under-18 Team, a rate of production that has only been eclipsed by Jack Hughes, Will Smith, Gabe Perreault, Auston Matthews and Phil Kessel. He was the No. 1 center and top forward in ice time as an under-ager for the U.S. team that won gold at World Juniors this year. At the 2024 World U18 Championships, he broke Nikita Kucherov’s record for points in a tournament. The year before, he broke the World U-17 Hockey Challenge record for points in a tournament.
Hagens is an incredibly dynamic player. He is arguably the best skater in this draft class, and he is a high-end playmaker. He consistently sets up teammates for high-danger scoring chances. He can be a one-man transition game. He does a great job of changing speeds to deceive defenders and create space for himself. He puts in the work defensively, and I think he’s more of a battler than some give him credit for.
The one thing Hagens definitely needs to do more is look for his own shot. He can be frustratingly deferential at times, especially considering he actually has a really good shot when he uses it. It was understandable at the start of this season given that his linemates were returning stars Perreault and Ryan Leonard (who led the country in goals this year), but there was still some overpassing even at the end of the season.
Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)
Desnoyers could have been a very realistic option at seven a month or two ago, but he may very well be playing himself into being a top-five lock with a strong finish that has eluded some others on this list. He’s one of the only players on this list still playing, as he has led Moncton to the QMJHL finals with a league-leading 24 points (9 goals, 15 assists) in 13 playoff games. The Wildcats will be favored to win that series and advance to the Memorial Cup.
Desnoyers has frequently been described as the “safe” pick among the group of non-Misa centers, which is both fair and something that sounds a bit like a backhanded compliment. In this case, however, “safe” might be a cherished commodity in a top 10 filled with uncertainty.
He’s safe because he really doesn’t have any weaknesses. He’s a 200-foot player. He has a high hockey IQ. He competes hard and plays physical. He’s a good skater, good passer, and good shooter. He has leadership qualities, twice wearing a letter for Canada in international play. He has good size at 6-foot-2, although he does need to fill out his frame as he’s currently just 178 pounds.
Desnoyers has the talent and production on top of all that, though. He might not have Hagens’ speed or Anton Frondell’s shot, but he makes some high-end offensive plays as both a playmaker and finisher. He was the best player on the QMJHL’s best team this season, with 84 points (35 goals, 49 assists) in 56 games. On a points-per-game basis, that’s the 11th-best QMJHL season for a 17-year-old since 2000, just behind Jonathan Huberdeau and Nico Hischier, and just ahead of Claude Giroux.
Hischier isn’t a bad comparison. I also heard the NHL Draft Pros show invoke two Florida Panthers by calling him “a poor man’s Aleksander Barkov” or “a rich man’s Anton Lundell,” which sounds like a really nice player. Desnoyers should be a good No. 2 center at worst, and he does have first-line potential.
Anton Frondell, C, Djurgardens (HockeyAllsvenskan)
After climbing the rankings thanks to a strong second half and maybe pushing to go top-three, Frondell slipped right at the end thanks to a disappointing showing in the U18 World Championships over the last week and a half. He had three points in five games and did some good things, but had too many quiet stretches, got overshadowed by several teammates who are either a year younger or projected to go later in this draft, and wasn’t used in some key late-game situations where you’d expect to see a top prospect.
That can’t be ignored, but neither can Frondell’s work prior to that tournament. He had 25 points (11 goals, 14 assists) in 29 games in the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second-tier pro league, this season while helping to lead Djurgardens to promotion up to the top division. That was good for the best points-per-game pace by an under-18 player in the league’s 20-year history. Second and third on that list are William Nylander and David Pastrnak, so yeah, he’s in some good company there.
The things to like about him go beyond the numbers. Frondell probably has the best shot in this draft class, including a rocket one-timer that he makes good use of playing on the right elbow on the power play. The idea of a Bruins power play with Pastrnak on one side and Frondell on the other is pretty tantalizing.
Frondell also uses the threat of that shot to fake out defenders and goalies before setting up teammates for grade-A looks. He’s not just a threat from distance, as he works to get inside to high-danger scoring areas. At 6-foot-1, 198 pounds, he plays a bit of a power forward game and is an effective forechecker. He uses his body and reach to hold onto pucks in the offensive zone and ward off defenders. He’ll throw some big hits, but could stand to bring the physicality more consistently. He’s also a good but not great skater, so that’s another area where he could improve.
Want another promising stat? NHLe is a formula that uses a prospect’s age, production and level of competition to project the chances he will become an NHL regular (defined as 200+ games played) and/or an NHL star (defined as 0.7 points per game for a forward or 0.45 points per game for a defenseman). According to Hockey Prospecting, Frondell runs away with the best NHLe in this draft class, with a 99% chance of becoming an NHL regular and an 89% chance of becoming a star. The only players with better projections from the last two drafts were Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Macklin Celebrini and Ivan Demidov.
Teams near the top of the draft, possibly including the Bruins, are going to need to weigh his impressive play in a pro league against men vs. his disappointing international play against his own age group. That’s not exactly a common split. In their post-lottery mock drafts, The Athletic and Sportsnet both have Frondell going right in front of Boston to the Flyers at six. TSN has him sliding past the Bruins to Seattle at eight – with Desnoyers also on the board for Boston, which would be a great situation for Sweeney and company. FloHockey still has him going third, and Daily Faceoff fifth.
Porter Martone, RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Martone is a power forward at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, but he might not quite be the classic prototype that you’re thinking of. That’s because Martone might actually be a better playmaker than he is a goal-scorer, a notion that’s reflected in his 61 assists this season vs. 37 goals.
That’s not a bad thing at all. If anything, it makes him more dangerous, because he can make plays all over the offensive zone and do more than just try to bull-rush his way to the net. He has legit vision and passing skills and does a great job of drawing defenders to him before setting up teammates. He has soft hands as a stickhandler, too.
Oh, and he can also score plenty of dirty goals. Martone is willing to go to the net-front and hard to move once he’s there. His good hands help him finish via deflections, off rebounds, or by lifting the puck in tight. He’s not as much of a threat from distance, but will snipe a corner from time to time. He’ll throw some hard hits on the forecheck, adding to his power-forward reputation.
The question for Martone is his skating. It’s probably the biggest weakness of anyone who might go in the top five. He can offset some of his lack of pace by using his body and reach to shield the puck, but you’d like to see more pull-away speed from such a high pick. His effort, especially defensively, can come and go at times, too.
Martone has drawn some comparisons to the Tkachuk brothers, and there are *some* similarities. But I think it would be wise to slow down a little bit with those comps. He’s not as consistent a physical presence as Brady, and he’s not as well-rounded a player as Matthew. That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t get to that level; just that it might be unfair to expect that he will.
Martone will probably be off the board before seven, but if he’s not, he’s the one winger who might be worth taking over one of the centers in this range if you’re the Bruins.
Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
O’Brien was one of the biggest risers in the second half of the season. A few months ago, he was almost universally ranked outside the top 10. In NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings released in April, O’Brien had shot up to fourth among North American skaters.
If you want to know why, just watch some of his playmaking highlights, which we’ve conveniently included below. O’Brien’s vision, passing and hockey IQ are at or very close to the top of this draft class. He’s just a machine when it comes to creating scoring chances and setting up teammates in high-danger areas.
O’Brien was second behind Misa among draft-eligible OHL players in assists with 66, and finished tied with Martone for second in points with 98 in 66 games. O’Brien got off to a somewhat slow start with 12 points in his first 15 games, and then produced at a points-per-game pace the rest of the way that matches Tyler Seguin in his 17-year-old OHL season. He is also a good two-way center, putting his smarts to good use in the D-zone as well as the O-zone.
O’Brien has some bulking up to do, as he is currently just 172 pounds despite being 6-foot-2. He has a good shot, but like Hagens, he can be guilty of overpassing sometimes. He also still has room to improve as a skater, and has already taken some strides (pun intended) there. O’Brien is one of the younger players in the class as a June 2007 birthday, so he has a little more developmental runway than some others.
O’Brien could be a very realistic – and worthwhile – target for the Bruins at seven.
Brady Martin, C, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)
Martin might be an even bigger late riser than O’Brien. He made a terrific final impression at the U18 World Championships, helping to lead Canada to gold with 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists) in seven games, which ranked second on the team. He was also an assistant captain on the team, just as he was for the Soo Greyhounds this season.
Martin had 72 points (33 goals, 39 assists) in 57 OHL games this season, which is very good, but well below the production rates of O’Brien and Martone. So, why might Martin get drafted in the same range?
Because everyone loves the way he plays. Martin, who’s listed at 6-feet, 186 pounds, is probably the most physical and hardest-hitting player in this class. He is an incredibly hard worker who competes every shift, all over the ice, and never passes up an opportunity to finish a check. He plays big minutes in all situations.
On top of that, Martin does have some offensive skill and can make some plays. He has good hands, good vision and good hockey IQ. He’s good defensively as well and projects as a 200-foot center. He’s a good-not-great skater.
Martin probably doesn’t have first-line upside offensively, but it’s possible no one available at seven will end up being a legit first-line forward. What Martin can be is a tone-setting middle-six center along the lines of a Sam Bennett – a player every team hates to face and would love to have.
If I had to bet on the Bruins’ pick sitting here on May 6, I think I’d put my money on either O’Brien or Martin.
Roger McQueen, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
The pros: McQueen is 6-foot-5, 197 pounds. He has a very good shot, with plenty of power on both snap shots and one-timers. He uses his size to throw some hard hits and force turnovers on the forecheck. He also muscles his way to middle ice and is a strong net-front presence.
The cons: McQueen missed four months with a back injury this season. As pointed out by former scout Pete Hughes on X, 12 of his 20 points this season came in four games against the WHL’s two worst teams. He had eight points in 13 regular-season games against the rest of the league, and one point in three playoff games. He’s not a great skater and doesn’t really drive play in transition. He also needs to improve defensively and loses more 1-on-1 battles than you would expect.
Some respectable rankings have McQueen in the top five, so it’s not like it’s indefensible to take him in that range. But I just think he carries significantly more risk than other players on this list, and worry there might be a bit of falling in love with size and ignoring some red flags. Taking a chance on him at seven is more palatable than drafting him in the top five, but I would still take anyone else on this list ahead of him.