Brad Marchand opened the scoring in the Bruins’ big 4-1 road win over the Hurricanes on Thursday, ending his 10-game goal drought and scoring career goal No. 400 in the process.
Bruins finish road trip strong with big win over Carolina
David Pastrnak took over from there, scoring Boston’s second goal on a nifty short-side roof job and setting up the third on a gorgeous pass to Danton Heinen. It was Pastrnak’s 36th multi-point game of the season. He’s now up to 106 points (47 goals, 59 assists) in 77 games.
You can argue that what Pastrnak is doing this season is even more impressive than what he did last year, when he finished second in voting for the NHL’s MVP award, the Hart Trophy. And yet, Pastrnak seems destined to miss out on being one of the three Hart finalists this season.
It begs the question: Is his season being underrated? Should he get more Hart consideration than he’s probably going to get? Let’s take a look.
And let’s start with what’s changed for Pastrnak from last year to this year. At the top of the list is the supporting cast around him. As we know, the Bruins lost Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement after last season, plus Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi and others to free agency or trades.
Last year, Pastrnak’s five most common forward linemates at 5-on-5 were, in order, Krejci, Pavel Zacha, Hall, Brad Marchand and Bergeron. This year, it’s Zacha, Marchand, Morgan Geekie, Heinen and Jake DeBrusk.
Last year’s group was better, and most of them already had chemistry with Pastrnak going in. That’s not a knock on this year’s group; it’s just a statement of fact. Geekie and Heinen have certainly exceeded expectations and made the most of their opportunities, but let’s not confuse them for Krejci, Bergeron or Hall. DeBrusk, as you’re probably well aware, has had a down season offensively.
Last year, the Bruins had eight 50-point scorers. This year, they will likely finish with just four (Pastrnak, Marchand, Charlie Coyle and Zacha).
Yet, Pastrnak is still on pace to match his career-high 113 points from last season. His goal-scoring is down, from 61 last year to 47 so far this season. But his assists are up, as his 59 are already seven more than his previous career high.
That is a product of Pastrnak needing to take more control and do more work to create chances. Last year, Pastrnak could play off the puck in the offensive zone more and trust his linemates to get him the puck once he popped open. This year, he has more often needed to be the one to make things happen, drawing defenders to himself before setting up teammates.
“I think he’s had to change his game because of the way we’re constituted as a team,” Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said last month. “He needs to have the puck on his stick more. Instead of being a 90% goal-scorer, he’s become 50/50.”
The Bruins’ offense has run through Pastrnak more this season, and they have been more reliant on his contributions. Last year, he had a point on 37.5% of all Bruins goals and was on the ice for 47.8% of them. This year, he has a point on 42.1% of them and has been on the ice for 51.6% of them.
The problem for Pastrnak when it comes to the MVP race has nothing to do with his own game. The problem is that too many other guys have made pretty big jumps this season.
Last year, Pastrnak’s 113 points were good for a third-place tie with Nikita Kucherov, behind only Hart winner Connor McDavid’s 153 and Edmonton teammate Leon Draisaitl’s 128.
This year, Pastrnak’s 106 points put him fifth, behind Kucherov (133), Nathan MacKinnon (130), McDavid (126) and Artemi Panarin (110).
All of those guys have strong MVP cases of their own, as does Auston Matthews (who has 99 points but is running away with the Rocket Richard Trophy with his 63 goals) and Connor Hellebuyck (who continues to look like the runaway Vezina Trophy winner as he leads the league in save percentage while ranking third in minutes played).
We mentioned that Pastrnak has a point on 42.1% of all Bruins goals this season. Let’s compare that to the other forwards in the Hart race:
Kucherov: 49.8%
McDavid: 48.1%
MacKinnon: 45.9%
Panarin: 42.3%
Matthews: 36.5%
For as reliant as the Bruins have been on Pastrnak for offense, you can argue – at least statistically – that the Lightning, Oilers, Avalanche and Rangers have been even more reliant on Kucherov, McDavid, MacKinnon and Panarin, respectively.
And while Matthews brings up the rear here, he has actually scored 23.2% of all Toronto goals, the highest percentage in the league. Pastrnak has scored 18.7% of Boston’s goals, which ranks second among this group and fourth overall (Florida’s Sam Reinhart is second, Edmonton’s Zach Hyman third).
Let’s also take a look at Goals Above Replacement (GAR), as calculated by Evolving-Hockey. Like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball, GAR attempts to be an all-encompassing stat that captures a player’s total value to his team. It’s not perfect and should not be considered a be-all, end-all, but it’s a tool to use.
MacKinnon: 34.1 GAR
McDavid: 30.1 GAR
Matthews: 29.4 GAR
Kucherov: 23.5 GAR
Pastrnak: 22.9 GAR
Panarin: 17.8 GAR
MacKinnon, McDavid and Matthews all get a bit of a boost in defensive value here, which is in part because they all play the more valuable defensive position (center), as compared to Pastrnak, Kucherov and Panarin (all wings). That makes sense; we all understand that center is inherently the more important 200-foot position.
Pastrnak’s best argument against the rest of this group comes back to supporting cast. His best teammate and sometimes linemate in terms of offensive production is Marchand, who has 65 points – 41 fewer than Pastrnak.
MacKinnon has had Mikko Rantanen (101 points) on his wing pretty much all season, not to mention Cale Makar (82 points) on the blue line behind him. McDavid has Hyman (52 goals) and sometimes Draisaitl (99 points) on his line.
Matthews had one of Mitch Marner (76 points in 62 games) or William Nylander (95 points) with him at all times until Marner’s recent injury. Kucherov has Brayden Point (85 points) as his center and usually Brandon Hagel (70 points) or Steven Stamkos (71 points) on the opposite wing.
Panarin is the closest comparison in terms of not having as much star power around him. Vincent Trocheck, Panarin’s center, is second on the Rangers in points with 75, 35 fewer than Panarin. Even still, the Rangers have five 60-point scorers; the Bruins have two.
Again, none of this is to say that Pastrnak’s linemates stink. They’re good players. They’re just not as good as the linemates pretty much every other MVP candidate gets to work with.
The question, for the purpose of the Hart discussion, is whether having less to work with makes up for the gap in both the counting stats (point total) and the advanced stats (GAR). Our guess is that it won’t.
Pastrnak is having an excellent season, possibly even a better one than last year, but our expectation is that he’s probably heading for a fifth- or sixth-place finish in Hart voting – behind a top four (in whatever order) of MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews and Kucherov, with Panarin or Hellebuyck possibly finishing ahead of him as well.