Appearing on Gresh & Keefe Tuesday, ESPN’s John Buccigross made a pretty damning statement about Bruins defenseman Jeremy Lauzon while discussing his ill-advised pass that led to the Islanders’ overtime winner in Game 2 Monday night.
“Jeremy Lauzon is proven to be, statistically, the worst 5-on-5 defenseman in the playoffs who have played a good amount of minutes,” Buccigross said.
Yikes. So, is that actually true?
Well, here’s the statistic Buccigross is (presumably) referring to, as first tweeted out by Tucker Boynton Monday night: Of the 100 defensemen who have played at least 30 minutes at five-on-five this postseason, Lauzon ranks dead last in goals against per 60 minutes at 5.91. In fact, that is more than a full goal worse than second-to-last Colton Parayko of the Blues (4.86).
Again, yikes. By the basic job description that a defenseman’s top priority is to help keep pucks out of his team’s net, yes, Lauzon is indeed “the worst 5-on-5 defenseman in the playoffs.”
That said, there is more context that is worth sharing here. For starters, Lauzon has been on the ice for nearly as many goals for as goals against. In three games -- and it’s important to note that’s all we’re dealing with since Lauzon missed four games in the first round -- he has been on the ice for four goals by the Bruins and five by their opponents at five-on-five.
In fact, Lauzon’s 4.72 goals for per 60 minutes is second among all defensemen in the playoffs behind only Colorado’s Ryan Graves, and just ahead of studs like Cale Makar and Charlie McAvoy.
Interesting! And therein lies the danger of drawing too broad a conclusion from one stat. The reality is that when Lauzon is on the ice, goals are being scored at a high rate -- both by the Bruins and against them. Putting it all together lands him smack in the middle of the pack in goals-for percentage -- 53rd of 100 at 44.4%.
Here is some more context on where Lauzon ranks among that group of 100 D (all stats from Natural Stat Trick):
-59th in Corsi against/60
-75th in Corsi-for percentage
-34th in shots on goal against/60
-46th in shots-for percentage
-24th in expected goals against/60
-48th in expected goals-for percentage
-37th in scoring chances against/60
-42nd in scoring chances-for percentage
-12th in high-danger chances against/60
-20th in high-danger chances-for percentage
Interestingly enough, Lauzon’s numbers actually get better the more you drill down on shot quality. Corsi is total shot attempts -- the Bruins are giving up a lot with him on the ice, and he’s on the ice for a lot more against than for.
But then when you get down to expected goals, scoring chances and high-danger chances, Lauzon ranks in the top half across the board, and inside the top 20 in high-dangers. What that means is that, for the most part, the Bruins are actually doing a pretty good job of keeping those shot attempts to the outside and away from the slot and the front of the net when Lauzon is on the ice.
Given that the Bruins’ third pairing -- whether it’s been Lauzon and Kevan Miller, Miller and Connor Clifton, or now Lauzon and Clifton -- has been getting by far the most defensive-zone starts of any Bruins D pairing, that’s kind of the ask for them. Bruce Cassidy and his staff know they’re going to spend time in their own zone and give up shots; the key is limiting the quality of those shots.
Goals in hockey are often random events, which is why it’s important to provide this additional context. Lauzon has certainly made mistakes that have led to goals against, with his turnover in overtime on Monday the most obvious example. He also had a bad pinch that helped lead to an Islanders goal in Game 1.
But a couple of those goals against have also been just plain bad luck -- think of the one that deflected off him in Game 1 against Washington when he was trying to block a shot. And while it wasn’t a five-on-five goal, the Islanders’ power-play goal that deflected in off his skate Monday night was just unfortunate too.
Tuukka Rask's .788 save percentage when Lauzon is on the ice this postseason is far worse than when any other D is on the ice. Clifton is next at .906, and everyone else is above .920. Is that all Lauzon's fault? Or is there some rotten luck involved there?
In Game 1 of this series, Lauzon also made a great pinch that kept an offensive-zone possession alive just before David Pastrnak’s second goal of the game. For all the talk of Lauzon being a disaster in Game 2, the Bruins actually broke even in five-on-five goals (2-2) and had an advantage in scoring chances (9-6) with him on the ice.
So, consider that a painting of the whole picture. This isn’t to say that Lauzon has been good this postseason. He has clearly struggled quite a bit at times. It’s worth exploring the possibility of taking him out of the lineup, although that might not happen until Kevan Miller is able to return.
But, “the worst five-on-five defenseman in the playoffs” is probably going a bit too far.
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