Even before the returns of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci became official last week, many were drawing comparisons between the 2022-23 Bruins and “The Last Dance,” referring to the 2020 ESPN documentary series about the 1997-98 Chicago Bulls.
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On one hand, the comparison is one that could make Bruins fans sad. It implies (but doesn’t guarantee) that, like the contracts Bergeron and Krejci signed, this is a one-year deal, with the end of this season marking the end of a Bruins era, just as the departures of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Phil Jackson after that 1997-98 season ended the Bulls’ dynastic years.
On the other, the thought of a couple franchise legends making one last run at a championship should be an exciting one. Of course, that’s only the case if the team is actually capable of making such a run. And that’s now the biggest question facing these Bruins: Can they really compete for the Stanley Cup this season?
To say there’s some skepticism among Boston fans and media would be an understatement. To an extent, it’s warranted. Unlike those 1997-98 Bulls, the Bruins are not going into the season as the defending champs. In fact, they are coming off a first-round exit. Arguably their two best players -- Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy -- will miss roughly the first two months of the season due to offseason surgeries.
The oddsmakers still aren’t very high on them either. Most sportsbooks have them around +2800 in their Stanley Cup odds, putting them outside the top 10.
There is a case for optimism, though, and we’re here to make it. It will require some good breaks, as it does every year for whoever wins the Cup. It will require them to keep their head above water without Marchand and McAvoy early on, and it will require those guys’ recoveries to go well and not leave them with lingering issues throughout the season. It will require more out of some of their role players, something the Bruins hope new coach Jim Montgomery will help with. But competing for the Cup is not some far-fetched fantasy.
For starters, this Bruins team, when healthy, is better on paper than last year’s team. The biggest difference is Krejci’s return, which gives them the legitimate No. 2 center they never had last season. Erik Haula did an admirable enough job playing between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak in the second half, but he struggled in the playoffs, with his defensive deficiencies in particular getting exposed.
While Krejci might not be quite as good as he was two years ago during his last NHL season, even a bit of a step down from his 2020-21 level would be an improvement over Haula, who had the same number of points (44) in an 82-game season last year as Krejci had in a 56-game season the year before.
General manager Don Sweeney shipped out Haula for Pavel Zacha this summer in a move that may prove to be a wash production-wise, but at least landed the Bruins a younger, bigger forward who still has some upside. Zacha could plug into the Bruins’ top six while Marchand is out and should prove to be an upgrade to the third line once Marchand returns. A bounce-back season from Craig Smith would be a big help to the third line as well, and top prospect Fabian Lysell looms as a potential top-nine addition at some point.
The net sum of Bergeron, who is still a high-end No. 1 center, staying and Krejci returning without any impact losses up front (apologies to Curtis Lazar) is a better top six (one that has the potential to be one of the best in the NHL) and a deeper forward group overall. Both were needed.
The defense and goaltending remain intact. While a portion of the Bruins fanbase would have you believe that the defense stunk last year, it’s worth pointing out that they did in fact rank fourth in goals against, third in shots against, first in scoring chances against, and first in expected goals against.
They will have a full season of Hampus Lindholm, who gives them the No. 1 on the left side they’ve lacked since Zdeno Chara’s departure. If he and McAvoy are reunited when McAvoy returns, they should be one of the best top pairings in the NHL.
They will need Brandon Carlo to be better than he was last season and at least one of Matt Grzelcyk (who will miss the first month of the season), Mike Reilly or Jakub Zboril to step up in order to solidify the top four. That’s not an unreasonable ask for any of them, but obviously nothing is guaranteed.
Having eight NHL-caliber defensemen under contract provides good -- and to start the season, necessary -- depth. The Bruins could end up moving one of them if they need to free up cap space once everyone’s healthy.
In net, Jeremy Swayman should be able to build off a good but inconsistent rookie season. There will be no shadow of Tuukka Rask lurking behind him for half the year. If his struggles late in the regular season were the result of hitting a “rookie wall,” then he should be better equipped to handle the NHL schedule this time around. Getting his first real taste of playoff action last season was a valuable experience, too. Linus Ullmark should continue to make for a solid veteran complement and hug partner.
So, even if the Bruins don’t end up with as many points as last season’s 107 because they get off to a slower start, the pieces are there for them to be a better team when it matters in the spring. And the second part of this equation is that a lot of the teams that went further than them got worse this offseason.
The three-time Eastern Conference champion Lightning lost Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh and were unable to add any real impact players to replace them. The team that beat them in the Cup Final, the Avalanche, lost two major pieces in Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky and hasn’t replaced them… not that we’re looking that far ahead just yet.
The Rangers, Tampa’s opponent in the conference finals, made basically a lateral move at second-line center with Vincent Trocheck replacing Ryan Strome, but lost two middle-six forwards in Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano and didn’t replace them.
The Hurricanes, who knocked off the Bruins in seven games, had a busy offseason, adding Brent Burns, Max Pacioretty and Ondrej Kase while moving on from Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter, Tony DeAngelo, Ian Cole and Max Domi. There’s no guarantee it’ll be a net positive overall.
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Panthers made a blockbuster move to acquire Matthew Tkachuk, but he alone won’t make up for the losses of Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux, MacKenzie Weegar and Mason Marchment. They’re a worse team overall, and getting swept in the second round showed they may not have been a true contender anyways.
Looking at the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff teams, the Capitals improved their goaltending with Darcy Kuemper, but face a big question regarding if or when Nicklas Backstrom will return from major hip surgery. The Penguins maybe got slightly better by tweaking their defense. The Maple Leafs somehow managed to downgrade their goaltending and didn’t improve in other areas.
Some non-playoff teams in the East definitely got better, most notably the Senators, Blue Jackets and Red Wings. But it has to be noted that they had a Grand Canyon-sized gap to close; Columbus was the closest to the postseason last year and still missed by 19 points. The Bruins finished 26 points ahead of the Jackets, 33 ahead of the Wings, and 34 ahead of the Sens. There’s wiggle room.
We’re not arguing that the Bruins should be the favorites to win the East or the Cup. But any road to that happening starts with them improving and the teams ahead of them getting worse, and that may very well be what we’re seeing.
Then the question becomes whether the pendulum swings far enough in their favor. We all know how small the margins are in the playoffs. The Bruins lost in the first round, but went to seven games and lost that Game 7 by a goal. The Hurricanes lost in the next round, but had a 3-2 lead in that series. The Lightning won the conference, but had been 11 minutes away from losing in six games in the first round. It doesn’t take a ton for some outcomes to start flipping.
The Bruins won’t be overwhelming favorites going into the season like the 1997-98 Bulls were, nor should they be. But maybe they shouldn’t be viewed as such a long shot, either.