Gary Washburn on Celtics' Game 7 win, conference finals vs. Heat
For a team that has been a staple in the Eastern Conference Finals the last few years, the Miami Heat sure aren’t being given much of a chance to beat the Boston Celtics and advance to the NBA Finals. In fact, the worldwide leader in sports' analytics model says it’s almost impossible. And neither fanbase seems happy about it.
In a tweet released Monday morning, ESPN promoted that their analytics model gives the Heat a…ready for this…THREE PERCENT CHANCE to advance to the NBA Finals. Which, no matter how ESPN spins it, reads as the Heat having virtually no chance of beating the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. The same team the Heat took to Game 7 last season, where the Heat were a missed Jimmy Butler three-point attempt in Miami away from advancing to their second NBA Finals in three years. Instead the Celtics won, advanced and lost to the Golden State Warriors in six games.
Like Jimmy Butler and the Heat need more motivation or bulletin board material. A play-in tournament team this year, Butler and the Heat have been on fire, knocking off Giannis Antetokounmpo and the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games, then bumping the higher-seeded New York Knicks in six. Now they’re set to rematch the Celtics, their third Eastern Conference Finals faceoff in the past four seasons. And they’re only given a 3% chance to win?
This needs some explaining. To both fanbases, who seem unhappy for different reasons.
Heat fans rightly feel disrespected as they’ve watched Butler play above and beyond the next level, carrying the team to the ECF.
And Celtics fans don’t seem to like the potential jinx or perceived arrogance or bad vibes this kind of heavily favored status could carry with it.
This is Boston. The fans have lived through teams overcoming insurmountable odds and analytical improbabilities for years. Super Bowl 51 come to mind for anyone?
The Heat knocked off the Celtics in six games in the 2020 NBA Finals in the bubble, and seem to always play them tough. Jayson Tatum might be coming off the best game of his career, scoring 51 vs. the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 7 on Sunday, and the Celtics have the better, healthier team, but that doesn’t mean anything to a battle-tested Heat team that’s rested and ready for a showdown. And now potentially more motivated than ever.
For the record, the Celtics are a heavy betting favorite to win the series at -500, and are set at an eight-point favorite in Game 1, Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. at TD Garden.
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