1 – The Patriots may no longer be realistically in the running to win the AFC East or even compete for a playoff spot after the dismal 1-5 start to the 2023 season, but if New England is still looking to win football games then it probably needs to lean on its running game to do so.
That’s especially true in Sunday’s matchup with the Bills at Gillette Stadium.
Buffalo has won the division each of the last three years, built on the strong right arm of franchise QB Josh Allen. And the Bills defense annually ranks among the best in the NFL.
But one area that the Bills are not overly strong in this season is run defense, a weakness up front that can only be exacerbated by the fact that star defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out of action with a toe injury.
Buffalo owns the NFL’s 25th ranked rush defense through six weeks, allowing opponents to average 5.4 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Patriots theoretically have the makings of a productive backfield tandem in third-year star Rhamondre Stevenson and veteran free agent addition Ezekiel Elliott. The problem is the talented duo has found tough sledding behind a banged up and makeshift offensive line this season, Stevenson averaging just 3 yards per carry and Elliott hitting for 3.9 per attempt as New England averages just 3.4 yards per rush as a team on the year.
If there is one matchup the Patriots might win on paper against Buffalo, and an approach the team might take to pull off the upset as a heavy home underdog, it would probably be through the ground game. If New England can get some successful blocking up front and get Stevenson/Elliott going it would be good step for a struggling Mac Jones-led offense. It would also keep Allen and the Bills offense off the field.
But given how much of a struggle pretty much everything on offense has been this season for Bill O’Brien’s unit, New England’s rushing attack is anything but a given even against a banged up Buffalo defense that’s susceptible to the run.
2 – Speaking Allen, the Bills’ QB has clearly established himself as one of the truly elite in the game in recent years and has done so in part with some pretty impressive performances against the Patriots. There are some in Buffalo who believe that the talented passer has had a little extra motivation against Bill Belichick’s team since the coach reportedly told ESPN prior to a Monday Night Football matchup in 2020 that he didn’t “buy into” they hype of the then-budding Bills’ star. Not only did Allen’s Bills blow out the Patriots in that MNF contest 38-9 at Gillette, Buffalo has beaten New England in four of five meetings since. The lone Patriots win was the wind game in Buffalo in 2021. In the five matchups since those quizzical and controversial comments by Belichick, Allen has thrown 14 touchdowns compared to one interception against New England. It’s safe to say Allen heard the noise from Belichick back in 2020 and might just still use it as extra motivation when he takes the field against New England.
3 – The Patriots continue to have plenty of roster movement on a weekly basis and much of it has revolved around three positions dating all the way back to the summer – offensive line, cornerback and wide receiver. This week the team got good news at cornerback with the activation of Jack Jones from IR, the second-year option adding some depth to the position that’s been hanging on by a thread with No. 1 pick Christian Gonzalez likely lost for the season. Jones showed flashes of high-end play as a fourth-round rookie a year ago, even in just two starts over 13 games played. Given the struggles the Patriots have had dealing with Buffalo stud wide receiver Stefon Diggs over the years, having another talented coverage man in the mix for this one can’t hurt. Given J.C. Jackson’s past struggles with Diggs, either Jack or Jonathan Jones (if healthy) might need to take a shot at the matchup.
4 – While, Jones adds depth and upside at cornerback, New England had to place veteran offensive lineman Riley Reiff on IR yet again this week due to a knee injury, a different ailment than the one that landed him on IR to open the season. With Reiff on IR, all five of New England’s projected starting offensive linemen heading into the season were on the injury report and missed practice time this week. That includes Trent Brown (chest), Cole Strange (knee), David Andrews (ankle) and Mike Onwenu (ankle). Andrews deemed himself “available” for the matchup with the Bills, but it will be interesting to see what the personnel up front looks like for a team that’s used five different starting lineups in six games this season. Sure the Patriots want to run the ball against the Bills, but first it needs to get five guys on field performing together at a relatively high level to get that done. That hasn’t happened often enough this fall for Adrian Klemm’s group, though the opening drive of the third quarter last week in the loss in Las Vegas was one positive example of the line and the backs getting the job done.
5 – Many would like to see the Patriots give their young wide receiver options more chances in the coming weeks, especially considering how dismal the production has been despite plenty of playing time for veterans Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster (who’ll reportedly be sidelined another week with a concussion). The good news for the young receivers is that Tyquan Thornton was not on the injury report this week and is fully healthy after making his season debut against the Raiders. Demario Douglas also returned to practice action on a limited basis and is expected to play after missing the game in Las Vegas to a concussion. Both could be youthful options against Buffalo, while Kayshon Boutte missed practice reps this week to hamstring injury that only adds to his issues getting on the field as a healthy scratch in recent weeks. Practice squad call-up Jalen Reagor, a former first-round pick in Philly, could also be in the mix as the Patriots keep looking for any spark they might be able to get in a stagnant passing game.
6 – Two truly unique legends from the New England dynasty days were inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame this week as former offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia and linebacker Mike Vrabel took their rightful spots among the other franchise greats. Scarnecchia is one of the most unique coaches in NFL history given his longevity with the Patriots that bridged coaches and ownership groups as well as his ability to be a hardline perfectionist with his players while simultaneously building bonds and loyalty with them that was unmatched. Vrabel was well known as a versatile player on the field, but he was equally unique in his leadership and culture-setting character off the field. Scarnecchia and Vrabel are the types of all-time performers and characters that team halls of fame are created for. They not only deserved their day in the spotlight at Gillette Stadium, but certainly deserve to forever be included in the greatness and accomplishments of the Belichick and Tom Brady era in New England.
7 – Prediction Time!: On paper this very much looks like a lopsided matchup between a Super Bowl contender and a team headed toward one of the top picks in the draft next April. The Patriots have looked up at the Bills in the division in recent years and failed to measure up to a team they dominated for so many years in the AFC East. Now it’s Buffalo that has the elite franchise QB and New England that’s searching aimlessly for answers at the position. Buffalo is banged up on defense without some of its top talents in that area, but so are the Patriots. The Bills also continue to try to find their stride on offense consistently, but they are still light years ahead of New England in that area. While there is some wind expected at Gillette, it won’t be the kind that helped the Patriots steal a win in Buffalo back in 2021. Sure Allen might be loose with the ball at times, but New England hasn’t shown it can take the ball away with just three turnovers in six games. Maybe Malik Cunningham will provide a unique spark to the offense. Maybe New England can get Stevenson and Elliott going on the ground against the Bills’ suspect run defense. Or, maybe Buffalo will play like it’s the better team with the better QB and better No. 1 receiver, as Vegas expects. The Patriots haven’t earned the right to the benefit of the doubt against equal or inferior competition. They certainly don’t get it against a better team. The expectation here is that Buffalo makes more than enough plays to win, something in the range of a 27-13 victory for the Bills. And the Patriots continue to search for answers that may not come until next spring.
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