On Tuesday, NBC Sports Boston’s Tom E. Curran made his return to Jones and Keefe as a regular contributor to Patriots coverage on WEEI, as training camp at 1 Patriot Place is just days away.
With New England, Miami and New York all undergoing massive changes to their roster this offseason, the outlook of the AFC East in 2025 is much different than it was heading into the 2024 season. Last summer, both the Dolphins and Jets were seen as upper echelon teams in the conference set to nip at the heels of the Bills for the top spot in the division, while the Patriots were perceived as being a team that would struggle under first-time head coach Jerod Mayo with a roster devoid of talent on the offensive side of the football.
Only one-third of those expectations came to fruition (sigh), as both the Dolphins (8-9) and Jets (5-12) massively underachieved. And with that underachievement came roster changes this offseason. New York now has a new head coach, new quarterback, and a receiver room that doesn’t include midseason acquisition Davante Adams, and the Dolphins have lost the likes of impact players like Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland, Jonnu Smith and Raheem Mostert to both trades and free agency.
New England’s expected underachievement in 2024 led to sweeping changes as well, including new head coach Mike Vrabel and massive free agent pickups like Milton Williams, Stefon Diggs and Carlton Davis III. They’ve also added new pieces along the offensive line in Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, as well as pieces on both the edge and middle of the defense like Robert Spillane and K’Lavon Chaisson.
“Do you think with all the changes that all three of these teams have made, that the Patriots should be the second-best team in the division?” WEEI’s Rich Keefe asked Curran on Tuesday.
“I definitely do,” said Curran. “I wrote something about that recently. I mean, the Dolphins are very much in transition mode, and I think that the buy-in with Mike McDaniel has seemed to wane drastically among the players.
“And I think he's been a good coach. I think he's an innovative coach, and everybody tends to, at some point, make a mistake or struggle in their first stop, regardless of who it is, and then he might be better down the road. But it seems as if it's a situation where the players are really having a hell of a lot more say than Mike McDaniel is, and the respect level seems to have waned. And then with the Jets - they have a lot more individually talented players than the Patriots do, but they don't have a quarterback that you look at and say, ‘that's the answer,’ in my mind.”
Even though individual Patriots have been absent from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler’s annual positional rankings as-voted-on by executives, coaches and scouts from around the league thus far (his corners list has yet to drop), the sentiment shared by Curran on Tuesday is one that’s shared by pundits around the football world. And the sportsbooks agree, with both FanDuel (+550) and BetMGM (+500) giving the Patriots the second-best odds to win the AFC East behind the Bills.
But why?
“The sum is greater than the individual parts,” said Curran. “To me, you look at that. You look at presumed and perceived improvement from their most important player in Drake Maye. You look at presumed improvement on the offense. You look at presumed output from guys like Diggs.
“You look at presumed performance along an offensive line that's been a disaster annually, and you look at a schedule that's going to be that much easier and a division that does not house, as it did last year - I mean, last year, the AFC East had like three of the teams that were in the top 12 going into the season according to most preseason rankings.
“The Jets were seen as - with Rodgers coming back - a team that should be in the upper-half, the Dolphins were a top 10 team by most people's measures, and the Bills were the Bills. So I think you combine all of those things, and it's not just whistling past the graveyard. They’re not talented in individual spots, but at least now they have players that you can go and say with a straight face, ‘This is our guy.’”
Training camp opens for the Patriots on July 22, with gates being opened to the public for day two of camp on July 23 at 9:15 a.m. ET.