1 – The internal preparations and external predictions as to what the Patriots might do in this critical 2024 NFL Draft are coming to an end. Finally, it’s draft week in New England and across football!
Soon we’ll find out what is actually going to happen in regards to what has the potential to be the most pivotal draft of Robert Kraft’s ownership tenure.
When de facto GM Eliot Wolf met with the local media this week for the team’s annual pre-draft press conference, he acknowledged that New England has and will continue to “spend time on all those scenarios” that could happen atop the first round come Thursday night.
As such, we’re gonna have some fun and do the same thing here. But with one twist, we’ll assign a too-early, hypothetical and in many ways admittedly meaningless grade to some of the scenarios that could play out inside the War Room at Gillette Stadium.
Let’s start with what feels like the most likely possibility, and one that seemingly has been embraced by most New England media types and many of the team’s fans. That’s the simple option of standing Pats at No. 3 overall and taking North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. With many predicting that USC’s Caleb Williams is a lock to the Bears at No. 1 and LSU’s Jayden Daniels likely to land in Washington at No. 2, Maye would be top option on the board at No. 3.
#TakeDrake. Maye has been compared to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. He might just be the most physically all-around talented quarterback in the class. He’s certainly got franchise QB upside, even if there are concerns about his timetable and developmental floor.
Getting Maye at No. 3 may feel like the most “boring” of outcomes as this point, but it may also be the key to the next generation of successful Patriots football. Grade: A.
2 – Sticking and picking at No. 3 overall doesn’t mean Maye is a lock. What if the UNC passer gets the nod at No. 2 by the Commanders? Well, that changes things. But only to the point where New England selects the Heisman-winner Daniels out of LSU to run Alex Van Pelt’s new-look offense. As much smoke as there has been in other areas, sitting at the third pick and taking whichever of the three almost universally projected top QBs falls continues to feel like the most likely scenario. And the best one.
Daniels certainly has franchise QB upside. He can run. He can throw. He can beat a defense with either. He’s been compared to reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, with better passing ability than the Ravens’ star had entering the NFL.
Daniels is skinny. Daniels takes too many hits. Daniels may not have the upside that Maye has in terms of passing ability. But if he’s the one on the board at No. 3 he should be the chosen one in Foxborough. Grade: A-minus.
3 – OK, time to address the elephant in the room. Or the Wolverine, in this case. Wolf did his best to enlighten (persuade?) reporters that there were more than three or even four QBs who might be worthy of consideration for New England at No. 3. Michigan star J.J. McCarthy might be the most polarizing QB prospect in the draft. Some (sure, it’s his college coach) promote him as the best in the crop. Others think he’s been unrealistically elevated beyond his talent which probably has him as a late first-round prospect, at best.
McCarthy never had to strap his Michigan team on his back and carry it to victory. He played with the best O-line, best running game, best defense and best coach. He is a winner in that world. But that doesn’t mean he’s ready to do everything needed and expected of an NFL franchise passer. Or that he’s capable of it. Some believe McCarthy has a “high floor.” Some thought the same thing of Mac Jones. And we all know how that worked out in New England.
With dreams of Maye or Daniels for many fans in Patriot Nation, McCarthy may feel a letdown. Because it would be. Grade: C.
4 – So far it’s all about QBs, with Wolf making it clear he believes there will be a QB worthy of the pick when New England is on the clock. But what if an elite talent at another position of need is too much for the Patriots to pass up? The Patriots have needed a true No. 1 wide receiver for a while now. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. is nearly universally considered the top receiver in this class and one of the top overall prospects. He might just be the famed “best player available.” Many believe you never regret taking an elite player, although the Giants may have some recent evidence to the contrary with Saquon Barkley getting the nod over, say, Josh Allen.
Harrison has the potential to be a consistent Pro Bowl receiver in the NFL, where it seems all the best teams have such a weapon on their attack. Maybe he is actually a “safe” pick. But if you go this route you still are on the lookout for a franchise QB, and that can be a tough situation to simply “figure out.”
Harrison at No. 3 overall will please some, but it’s a tough argument in this QB-driven world. Grade: B-minus.
5 – There is another position of potential consideration at No. 3 and it’s the other most critical position on an offense, left tackle. It’s also one of the three biggest holes on the New England roster right now despite Wolf claiming career right tackle and free agent addition Chukwuma Okorafor could be up for the job.
Joe Alt is a prototype left tackle prospect out of Notre Dame, although that by no means guarantees he’s a foundational piece at the next level. Despite what some may pretend, drafting tackles high in the first round remains a relatively risky proposition.
This winter it was reported during the Patriots transition of power away from Bill Belichick that if Wolf got control then taking a tackle at No. 3 might be a likely scenario. At this point it doesn’t feel that way. It also doesn’t feel like it would be a smart path for a team that needs the flashier aspects of an elite offense. Alt at No. 3 overall? No thanks. Grade: F.
6 – OK, so we’ve pretty much exhausted the options in terms of staying at No. 3 and simply making a selection. Now let’s address the idea of trades. First, is a simple trade down. Wolf made it clear that the Patriots are very much “open for business” in terms of trade discussions and that in an obvious rebuild he would like to accumulate assets. “The more picks we have the better,” Wolf revealed. The best way to get those picks is probably to trade down from No. 3. That could bring three first-round picks or more based on recent history, especially with QB-needy teams hunting for their franchise passer.
The thought here is that each of the top three is worthy of being a potential franchise passer. But if Wolf and the collaboration don’t feel that highly of the quarterbacks on the board, then a trade down is probably the right thing to do. Collect more picks. Collect more talent at other spots. Build out the roster. If you don’t see the would-be QB worthy of the pick then try to build a more QB-ready roster. It’s not bad in theory. Grade: C
7 – Saving the best for last here, we’ve got the dream scenario of all Patriots dream scenarios. It may not be overly realistic, but there is at least a shred of possibility to it. Here goes…
Plenty of other teams seem to have a desire to move up for a QB. The Vikings seem to have the most capital to get that done. And there have been at least some reports and rumors that Minnesota covets McCarthy, who would probably find a nice landing spot throwing to Justin Jefferson and T.J.
Hockenson.
So here’s the proposal, trade No. 3 overall to the Vikings in exchange for No. 11, No. 23, a 2025 first-round pick and current Minnesota left tackle Christian Darrisaw. It’s a lot and it should be.
But wait, there’s more.
Now, assuming and hoping that the Vikings do take McCarthy, that would leave Maye on the board at No. 4 and No. 5 for the Cardinals and Chargers, neither needing a QB. That could allow New England to trade back up to one of those three spots, to snag Maye. Even if Wolf had to give up No. 11, No. 23 and the Vikings pick from next year, it would be worth it.
In this ballsy, sexy scenario the Patriots would leave the first round of the draft with a would-be franchise QB in Maye, a legitimate Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle in Darrisaw and still have the No. 34 pick to target a top wide receiver talent. It’s a dream. Maybe a pipe dream. But we still have a couple days left to dream. Grade: A-plus +!