Quarterback is arguably the most important position in sports, and as it stands right now the Patriots do not have a viable option, especially as it relates to beyond the 2021 season.
“Look, the quarterback is the most important position on the team. We know that. One way or another, we have to get that position solidified,” Patriots owner Robert Kraft said last month speaking via conference call following the virtual owners meetings.
With free agency in the rear-view mirror, the next chance to add a quarterback is via the draft and the Patriots select No. 15 overall, their highest spot since 2008. Obviously, everyone is aware there are five top players at the position and many speculate they will all go in the top 10.
If that is the case, the Patriots will need to trade up, and to do that will need to give up multiple draft picks, including at least one future first-rounder. Some believe that isn’t something Bill Belichick would be willing to do and thus not get a quarterback in the first round.
While that is OK and a quarterback could be selected later on the draft, just don’t expect that player to one day turn into the Patriots’ QB of the future.
Since 2010, 130 quarterbacks have been drafted overall, which include 33 in the first round and 11 in the second. Of those 44 players, they have averaged 43.5 games started in the league.
Then when it comes to Rounds 3-5, the same number of players (44) have been selected during that time, but yet those players have only averaged 13.9 games started. The three outliers are Dak Prescott (69 starts), Russell Wilson (144) and Kirk Cousins (104).
Lastly, the only player selected in Rounds 6-7 to really amount to anything is Tyrod Taylor, who has 44 career starts. And those stats are only in terms of games started, it’s even more staggering when it comes to actual team success.
Albeit just one season of a sample size, of the 14 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs in 2020, 11 were selected in the first round (Drew Brees was pick No. 32, but was Round 2 in 2001). Additionally, eight of the 14 were drafted in the top 10.
Bottom line, the majority of franchise quarterbacks get selected in the first round and more often than not in the top 10.
This brings us to this year and the Patriots.
They could potentially address the position for the future via trade or free agency, which would likely be next offseason, or they could do it via the draft in a few weeks. That of course likely would mean a big gamble by trading up from No. 15 and into the top 10.
On the flip side, when will the Patriots be this close to the top of the draft again? Selecting near the end of the first round like they have so much over the years has made it next to impossible to get into the top 10. An argument could be made to make the most of the poor season in 2020 and do what it takes to move up and land the quarterback of the future.
With that being said, it would be for the fourth or fifth player at the position to come off the board, as it seems a virtual lock that the first three picks of the draft will be quarterbacks. Atlanta at No. 4 reportedly is open to trades and that would allow the Patriots to get their choice of whatever two of the five best QBs remain.
Do they believe Justin Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones is their quarterback of the future? If as an organization it truly believes it, New England absolutely should do what it takes to move up because when else will it be in this position again? Also, next year’s quarterback class isn’t expected to be all that great.
But, what if the Patriots do not believe Fields, Lance or Jones is the answer? We just showed how important it is to get a quarterback high in the draft, but the one thing worse than not having a quarterback is having the wrong quarterback. Belichick is smart enough not to force the issue.
So in that scenario, the organization would reevaluate things next offseason, which may not be such a bad thing. It will be in a better spot than it was this year when Matthew Stafford said he didn’t want to play in New England. Perhaps, if a Stafford-type player became available he would want to play for the Patriots and they could acquire their QB of the future that way. Jimmy Garoppolo potentially could become available, as well.
Although not as simple as drafting the quarterback of the future this year, potential options for the long-term likely will be there next offseason.
When it comes to solidifying the position, like Kraft said, history says the Patriots will either need to take a gamble and trade into the top 10, or wait until next offseason and reevaluate their options.