“The foundation of it is similar. I wouldn’t say it’s quite the same.” - Bill Belichick when asked if Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme this year is similar to what it has been in the past with other teams.
Dan Quinn. The instincts of Patriots fans cause their mind to go to one place: Super Bowl 51. 28-3 in the closing minutes of the third quarter. A powerless Quinn on Atlanta’s sideline watching his defense, the very area he was considered to be a mastermind, flounder helplessly at the mercy of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Down for the count and drowning.
The name is one of a family of names that evokes an involuntary thought from Patriots fans. Not like the Eli Manning and Bernard Pollard family of names. More like the Adam Gase or Bill O’Brien family. And the thought is an uncontested notch in the win column.
But things have changed since the last matchup between Belichick and a Quinn defense. In fact, Sunday will only be the fourth time the two have matched up, with Belichick leading the all time series 3-0.
The first matchup was in Super Bowl 49, with Quinn as the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” defense. Brady threw for 328 yards and four touchdowns against what was the top defense in DVOA for the second year in row. Seattle as a team and as a defense seemingly never recovered from that loss.
The second matchup was the aforementioned Super Bowl 51 between the Patriots and Falcons. The rematch for that game came in Week 7 of the 2018 regular season, with the Patriots handing the Falcons a decisive 23-7 defeat.
Quinn was never able to recapture the success he had as defensive coordinator in Seattle in his time as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. In Seattle, Quinn came in with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Bobby Wagner already in place. In Atlanta, he certainly developed the likes of Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Robert Alford, but the unit as a whole never eclipsed the top half of the defensive DVOA rankings -- not until Quinn was fired midway through the 2020 season.
In fact, Atlanta’s defense also improved in 2019 when Quinn took the unorthodox approach of having two of his defensive staffers split play calling duties depending on the down. To this day, Quinn has never developed a defense into an elite unit himself -- he was assigned the moniker of “mastermind” for being in the room where the Legion of Boom happened.
Will that history manifest on Sunday against the Patriots?
The Belichick vs. Quinn all time series is borderline irrelevant in this matchup. Brady tearing into Quinn’s Seahawks defense in Super Bowl 49 or his Falcons defense in Super Bowl 51 really don’t have much bearing on this game.
A few things have changed in the span of time since the last time Belichick and Quinn played each other that will make this matchup unique: Brady isn’t the Patriots’ quarterback and the Patriots have the worst offensive line they’ve had in a decade.
Quinn was also handed two superstars that may not require much developing: Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons. Both are impact players the Patriots will have to heavily scheme around on Sunday. But as I pointed out Wednesday, much to the chagrin of Cowboys fans in the fantasy land of no consequences that is Twitter, there are a lot of weaknesses on this defense aside from Diggs and Parsons.
The history of Quinn’s homegrown defensive units in totality may have some bearing, as they are currently sixth in defensive DVOA. outside the superstars that are Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs that someone like Belichick should have no problem taking advantage of.
Quinn’s presence on the coaching staff shouldn’t be viewed as the joke it may have been two years ago -- not because he’s a game changer, but because the entire equation is different.
Unless Quinn puts on the pads himself.