1 – Two waves of positivity have washed over Patriot Nation this summer. One revolves around what should be a revitalized offense under the direction of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien that likely will have Mac Jones looking more capable than frustrated this fall.
The other is a sudden injection of not just hope but elite expectations for New England’s defense. Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon said in minicamp that the Patriots have “unicorns” on the unit. Hard-hitting veteran safety Jabrill Peppers said the group, which returns pretty much every key contributor not named Devin McCourty, is looking to “take that next step” by starting at a much more advanced point during offseason workouts thanks in part to the roster continuity.
But what is that next step? In recent years the Patriots have indeed put up impressive overall numbers under the guidance of Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo. They’ve made plenty of plays and even scored their own points.
The group’s been good taking the ball away, pressuring the passer and getting off the field on third down.
Some of those numbers though, were heavily swayed toward games against questionable quarterbacks, including backups and rookies at the position.
As it stands today, the gauntlet the defense will face this fall is formidable. Heck, the first month includes potentially potent offenses from Philadelphia, Miami, the Jets and Dallas. Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are anything but inexperienced or overmatched quarterbacks.
Given the overall versatility and depth of the defense, New England should have a good unit to face those challenges in 2023. But can the group be elite? Can it be the reason Bill Belichick’s team wins games, especially as the offense finds its new-look footing early in the year?
That might be a stretch. It’s certainly not been the case in recent seasons against higher-end offenses and elite quarterbacks, against the types of teams the New England defense will face early and often in 2023.
“I would just say this, essentially you’re bringing back all the same guys from last year,” longtime Patriots insider Mike Giardi told WEEI’s 6 Rings and Football Things podcast this week. “When they played good quarterbacks last year and they didn’t play very many, they didn’t do well. So, you look at this year’s schedule and the quarterbacks that are on the list if those guys are healthy when you play them it’s a massive upgrade in terms of the skill that they are facing at quarterback this year than they did last year. I still like this group. I’m not trying to tell you they’re not good. I think they are good. Whether they are great, whether they are this crazy thing that people are making it out to be right now, I’m not there yet. Because I didn’t see it last year in moments against good quarterbacks.
“They’re good. But I’m not going to declare anybody great yet. If they start stacking it up against these good quarterbacks then we have something to talk about.”
2 – While the bulk of the offseason is in the rearview mirror, many fans and media in New England continue to clamor for roster changes. Much of that seems to focus on free agent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins or even free agent running back Dalvin Cook. In one sense the desire to add the big-name offensive playmakers makes sense. They’re available and they have impressive resumes. But from a pure needs perspective, neither fills what would currently be considered the biggest voids on the Patriots’ depth chart, which at this point would have to be offensive tackle and cornerback. Even if Trent Brown puts his missed minicamp time in the past, there remains doubt as to just how stable the tackle position is. And while first-round pick Christian Gonzalez could very well lock down the No. 1 cornerback spot, Jack Jones’ recent arrest at Logan Airport certainly puts his availability in question. So while it’s fun to think about adding playmakers like Hopkins and Cook to the offensive mix, the more ideal late veteran additions would probably be more valuable at tackle and cornerback, if possible. Both key spots feel like houses of cards built on shaky ground right now.
3 – With Cook pondering the possibility on Adam Schefter’s podcast of joining forces with Hopkins on the same team, it ignited a fantasy football dreams for fans everywhere. Imagine what adding a game-changer at both running back and wide receiver would do for any offense, including O’Brien’s attack in New England. Certainly Hopkins’ arrival, which kinda feels more realistic by the summer day, would add a true No. 1 target to the Jones-led passing attack. And Cook would pair with budding star Rhamondre Stevenson to form one of the best backfield tandems in the NFL. It’s an unlikely lottery scenario for New England, but one that was apparently realistic enough for the Twitter account of Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football to speculate as to whether or not the late offensive additions would propel the Patriots into the playoffs. Maybe most sobering for New England fans is that the question even has to be asked. And with both Hopkins and Cook seemingly prioritizing contract dollars at this point, both landing in New England seems farfetched, even if former Belichick assistant Michael Lombardi thinks adding a running back makes sense for the Patriots.
4 – Speaking of Thursday Night Football, the broadcast’s lead analyst Kirk Herbstreit created some Patriots’ buzz last week with comments made on the Pat McAfee podcast regarding Mac Jones. Many ran with the fact that Herbstreit declared that New England would have one of the top three most improved offenses this fall under O’Brien and that Jones would become a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in the near future. Neither is saying much given how bad the Patriots offense was last fall and the fact that Jones actually made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. The most important comment from Herbstreit, if you respect his football knowledge, is that he’s one-thousand percent a believer in Jones. After an up-and-down start to his NFL career over two seasons, it’s hard for anyone to be that sure of Jones’ future. If Herbstreit is right and Jones is in place for the long haul as the franchise QB in New England that would be a boon for Belichick as he rebuilds his team on the run and chases Don Shula’s all-time wins record. There’s no question that 2023 could be a make-or-break season for Jones, and clearly Herbstreit believes the former Alabama star is going to make it count.
5 – With all the hope of signing Hopkins combined with the focus on offseason additions to the offense of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki, one returning veteran with upside potential for the Patriots offense is very much flaying under the radar. After missing almost the entirety of his first season in Foxborough on IR due to a shoulder injury, Montgomery is now healthy and in great shape. The veteran’s versatile history with experience both as a receiver and out of the backfield could be extremely valuable for a New England offense that could use the depth at both spots. During OTAs and minicamp he got the bulk of his work at receiver and appeared to be next in line at the position after the top four of Smith Schuster, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton.
“He's a skilled player, can do a lot of different things in the kicking game and offensively,” Belichick said. “We’ll give him an opportunity to do those things and see how it goes.”
To do that, Montgomery must stay healthy. “His availability is probably a big thing for him,” Belichick said.
6 – Stevenson certainly showed the ability as both a runner and a receiver a year ago to be not only an impact player but a potential star. But there were times that the second-year back appeared to wear down due to the heavy workload. Stevenson was on the field for more than 75 percent of New England’s offensive snaps in seven of the 16 games he played. He had 210 rushing attempts and another 88 targets in the passing game, including 69 receptions. That’s a massive load for any player and probably not a sustainable approach for such a key part of the Patriots’ offense. Whether it’s Montgomery or Pierre Strong Jr. lightening Stevenson’s load in the passing game or Kevin Harris taking a share of the early-down rushes, New England will need to find another backfield option to step up this fall. Sure Stevenson is young. Sure he’s probably the best player on the New England offense right now. But if he’s asked to carry too much of the offense it will likely lead to injury or diminishing returns.
7 – With all the hope for a revitalized offense and hype surrounding the potentially elite defense, New England’s training camp practices that will be open to fans beginning July 26th will be daily battles worth watching. Assessing practice field action can always be difficult, given the variable tempo and competitive level of action. And it’s sometimes challenging to declare in 11-on-11 action the difference between a good play from one side of the battle and a poor one from the other. Jones will face plenty of challenges on the practice fields of Foxborough this July and August from a veteran, versatile defense he’ll be competing with each day. If the defense is as good as some believe and Jones’ unit can be competitive after a month-plus of camp action, it could prepare the offense for regular season work. Either way, it should be fun for fans to watch in what is a unique football environment that provides maybe as much value as any in professional sports these days, especially for families.