Much has been made of the Patriots after their bye week.
New England is 1-3 in its last four games, showed little resistance against opponents that haven’t had the first overall pick two years in a row, and saw the play of Mac Jones and Matt Judon tail off when it arguably mattered most.
But there's good news for the Patriots: the Bills are in a slump of their own.
But the Bills are 4-0 in their last four games! Josh Allen has played great! They scored at least 27 points in all of those games!
All accurate. Luckily for the Bills, they have a great quarterback who has put on his roadrunner legs.
The fine print of the 2021-22 NFL season will read that the 5-12 Panthers had one of the better defenses in the league, which Allen saw success against. He likewise dismantled the Patriots defense without Cole Beasley or Gabe Davis. He struggled to throw against Atlanta in Week 17, but made up for it on the ground. The same knack for running helped the Bills beat a Jets defense that finished the season strong.
It’s not that Allen is slumping like Jones is slumping: it’s that the rest of the team around him is slumping. Allen is the second-most pressured quarterback in the NFL in the last month of the season, yet his play under pressure hasn’t devolved to the level of rookie year Allen as is often the case with many QBs. In fact, he’s league average in most metrics while under pressure. Being an average passer under that kind of pressure is significant. And also somewhat accounts for Allen’s 22nd-ranked adjusted completion percentage in December and January.
Although Allen is pretty much the same passer when not under pressure, so maybe he’s just an average passer…
There’s an ancient proverb from the coal mines of western Pennsylvania: “It’s nut cuttin’ time.”
If the trends of Allen facing ocean floor amounts of pressure, his receivers dropping passes (Buffalo pass catchers are tied for the third-most drops in the NFL in the past month), rookie right tackle Spencer Brown not blocking anything, and his defense allowing 150 rushing yards to any team with a somewhat decent offensive line continue, then Allen’s legs will be the Bills’ only hope. That’s not to mention Buffalo not being able to put away teams like the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets until deep into the second half, needing a kicker injury and a taunting penalty to help them in the cases of Carolina and Atlanta. Trends like those are not sustainable in the playoffs.
But are those trends sustainable against a Patriots team facing myriad slumps of their own? Time will tell.
Here are three more aspects of the Buffalo Bills to keep an eye on this Saturday...
Sometimes I Wanna Disappear
Matt Judon has pulled a Houdini act in the past month. He’s tied for 160th (!!!) in pressures generated by defensive linemen and edge rushers who rush on more than 20% of their team’s defensive snaps, with a total of four. He’s only winning 5.6% of his rushes – tied for 164th in the league. For context, Judon was fourth in pressures and had the 14th-best pass rush win percentage of qualifying defensive linemen through the first 13 weeks of the season.
Is Judon playing injured? Maybe. Maybe not. If so, then that makes two Patriots pass rushers who may play injured on Saturday night: Judon and Christian Barmore -- coincidentally the only two pass rushers on the Patriots’ roster worth a damn. The weak link on the Bills offensive is rookie right tackle Spencer Brown, who has allowed the fifth-most pressures in the last month. If Judon does apply some pressure, look for it to come when he’s matched up against Brown. Although Judon couldn’t get pressure no matter who he rushed against when the teams played three weeks ago, so who knows.
We’ll Be Myles Apart, I’ll Let You Run Inside
In the absence of Beasley and Davis, Bills receiver Isaiah McKenzie really stepped up in the Week 16 meeting between Buffalo and New England. Eight of McKenzie’s 11 catches on the day came against Myles Bryant, accounting for 83 of McKenzie’s 125 yards through the air. And that was against a Patriots defense that was at full strength. New England's only hope is that having his four receivers healthy confuses Josh Allen to the point of submission and he throws the ball out of the stadium every play.
I Am Finally Clean
Speaking of pass rush, the Bills have one! Luckily, the Patriots’ offensive line has kept Mac Jones relatively clean down the stretch. But in the rare instances the protection did let up, Jones has not been as successful overcoming the pressure as he was in the beginning of the season. However, the level of pass rushing competition the Bills present may be superior than anything the Patriots have faced since their bye week. Harrison Phillips is a wrecking ball while Ed Oliver, Jerry Jughes and Gregory Rousseau are all average-to-above average pass rushers who can rush the passer from any spot on the defensive line. Add in Mario Addison, who is effective but almost exclusively rushes from the right side, and the Patriots offensive line is in for a dog fight.