1 – Nine games into the 17-game schedule and with the 5-4 Patriots enjoying the bye in Week 10, there is no better time to review the first half of the season and offer up some midseason awards for New England than now. Certainly there have been plenty of ups and downs through the first two-plus months of 2022 football and there’s lots for New England to clean up during the bye week, but there’s also been some pretty high level football that deserves acknowledgment at this point.1 – Nine games into the 17-game schedule and with the 5-4 Patriots enjoying the bye in Week 10, there is no better time to review the first half of the season and offer up some midseason awards for New England than now. Certainly there have been plenty of ups and downs through the first two-plus months of 2022 football and there’s lots for New England to clean up during the bye week, but there’s also been some pretty high level football that deserves acknowledgment at this point.
MVP: Matthew Judon. New England’s edge rusher has been elite, playing at a much higher level than he did a year ago at this point in what was a Pro Bowl first season in Foxborough. Judon not only leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks, but has been a consistent, persistent problem for opposing defenses throughout most games. He’s also been a source of consistent positive energy for the Patriots, something the team could use more of on both sides of the ball.
Offensive Player of the Year: Rhamondre Stevenson. The second-year running back has been without a doubt the best playmaker on the Patriots’ offense, maximizing runs and catching the ball well out of the backfield. Stevenson has already taken his game to the next level, but with three-down ability the sky is the limit to just how much he can accomplish moving forward as one of the best young running backs in the NFL.
Defensive Player of the Year: Deatrich Wise Jr. With Judon getting the love as the MVP, his pass-rushing pal Wise deserves attention for what has been a breakout sixth season. Wise is playing more than 80-percent of the New England defensive snaps, has been a force opposite Judon in the pass rush and a versatile piece along the defensive front. The captain also brings steady, positive leadership to his team. Wise has worked hard over the years and deserves all the success he’s finding in 2022.
Rookie of the Year: Jack Jones. Playing more than 60 percent of the snaps on defense as a fourth-round rookie cornerback is far from easy. But Jones has shown the ability and the attitude to get the job done for a New England back end that’s needed it. Jones has confidence, playmaking ability (two interceptions, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery) and obvious developmental upside.
Special Teams Player of the Year: Nick Folk. The veteran kicker continues to amaze with his consistent, much-needed production in New England. He’s perfect on PATs and missed just two of 21 field goals. He’s had multiple games with five field goals for an offense that needs all the scoring help it can get. Despite turning 38 years old earlier this month, Folk shows no signs of slowing down. In fact he seems to improve with age.
2 – Certainly the above players very much deserve midseason recognition for their positive play and contributions in New England this fall. But, all’s not been roses and wins for the Patriots. There have certainly been some significant disappointments. While much has been written and said about Mac Jones’ regression and the overall struggles of the offense, it’s not all on the shoulders of the second-year QB.
Two of the biggest disappointments on the offensive side of the ball in New England would have to be offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn and wide receiver Kendrick Bourne. Wynn struggled in the move to right tackle, giving up too many pressures and earning too many penalties. The former first-round pick even found himself outside of the starting lineup, serving a sub role that included reps at guard. Meanwhile, Bourne has failed to build on what was a very good first season in Foxborough a year ago. The veteran seemingly found himself in the doghouse in training camp and has just 14 catches for 167 yards at this point.
Defensively the biggest disappointment through nine games in New England would probably be second-year defensive tackle Christian Barmore. After an impressive rookie season and enticing summer, Barmore has been quiet through the first half of the year. He’s learning to play while getting a lot of attention and double-teams from opposing lines, while also missing time to a knee injury. Barmore still has plenty of time to salvage his sophomore season, but it doesn’t feel like he’s making the Year 2 Jump to Pro Bowl-caliber play that was expected.
3 – While a lot can change in a little time in the NFL, nine games into a season is a pretty large statistical sample size. Just more than halfway through the year it feels like players have somewhat established their level of play. As such, first-half production can certainly be an indicator of what a player’s final stats might be. So, it’s worth noting at this point that Stevenson is on pace for 1,167 yards and 66 receptions, a number that would put him in James White Land in terms of passing back production. Judon is on pace for a hair under 22 sacks, which would not only set a Patriots record but could challenge the NFL record. Wise could top 10 sacks for the year, meaning New England could have multiple double-digit sack guys for the first time since 2011 (Mark Anderson 10, Andre Carter 10).
Not all the second-half production projections are positive, though. With seven interceptions in four-plus games, Jones could throw more than 16 interceptions on the season, which would be most by a Patriots QB since Drew Bledsoe had 21 in 1999.
4 – Asked about the possibility of reaching 20 sacks during his weekly interview on WEEI this past week, Judon took a team-first approach to what would be an incredible individual statistic.
“If that’s what my team needs…If that’s what I need to do, that’s what I’m going to have to do,” Judon told WEEI.
5 – Bill Belichick agreed this week with the notion that over the last couple games defensive opponents, including Colts’ linebacker Shaquille Leonard and Jets’ linebacker C.J. Mosley, appeared to know what play New England was running before the ball was even snapped. That has only emboldened the outside criticism that the Patriots’ offense under Matt Patricia’s leadership is too predictable.
Asked about defenders knowing the plays, players on both sides of the ball in New England downplayed the issue, including the man in the middle of it all Jones.
“I think, like I always say, in the NFL, there’s good players everywhere. We watch film, we sometimes know what teams are doing, sometimes we don’t,” Jones said. “I think people just watch a lot of film and there’s good players out there, so you just have to give credit where credit’s due. Obviously, we want to fix anything that we’re giving away, but at the end of the day, we’ve got plenty and we just need to do better.”
6 – It’s been pointed out that the second half of the Patriots’ schedule is more challenging on the whole than the first nine games of the season, and rightfully so. One area that’s notable is that an argument could be made that seven of the eight quarterbacks faced in the final eight games have played at an MVP level at some point in their NFL careers.
Looking at the list of upcoming opponents statistically based on the first nine weeks of action, there are some notable numbers. Based on yardage rankings, New England faced three top-10 offenses and three top-10 defenses in the first nine games. It will face four top-10 offenses and three top-10 defenses in the final eight. If scoring is used as the metric, New England faced three top-10 offenses and just one top-10 defense in the first nine games but be matched up against five top-10 offenses and three top-10 defenses over the final two months.
It’s also worth noting that New England faced five offenses and five defenses in the first nine games that ranked 20th in the NFL in scoring or worse. It will face just one such offense and three such defenses in the final eight weeks.
7 – Prediction Time: No game to predict this week, so we might as well take a swing at projecting the results of the second half of the season. Certainly things can change by the week in the NFL – and Josh Allen’s elbow injury is a key factor to keep an eye on with New England left two face Buffalo twice in the final eight games. As it stands now, though, it feels like a 4-4 mark over the final eight contests would be a fair projection for New England. The Jets, Raiders and Cardinals are very much winnable games on paper. The Vikings and Bills (twice) are probably pretty losable. How things go against the Bengals and the Dolphins could probably swing how the final two months plays out and whether New England remains in the playoff hunt into the holiday season. And a 4-4 mark down the stretch would leave the Patriots at 9-8 for the season, pretty much where many people expected them to end up all along.
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