Bill O’Brien’s legacy as one of the more notorious members of the Bill Belichick coaching tree was sealed last week when this excerpt was released from Patriots superfan pariah Seth Wickersham’s upcoming book It’s Better To Be Feared: The New England Patriots Dynasty and the Pursuit of Greatness:
"The plan was fanciful, but O'Brien heard about it. He was in a power struggle of his own in Houston, fighting with general manager Rick Smith, a 'dysfunctional' and 'toxic' situation, according to the Houston Chronicle. The leaks from O'Brien's camp, claiming he wanted out, were so aggressive as to be suspicious, as if he knew he had a golden parachute. In the end, though, the [Texans] chose O'Brien over Smith, giving the coach more control over football operations. O'Brien later joked to a confidant that it was a somewhat empty victory. 'I was trying to get fired,' he said."
O’Brien is like climate change: it’s bad, smart people know it’s bad, really smart people say it’s worse than you think, some people think it’s much ado about nothing, and it’s consequences are inevitable and long-lasting.
We all know the story of O’Brien’s Houston tenure. Here are some of the lesser known greatest hits:
In 2018, the Texans were the most-run heavy team on early downs in the first half and ran the ball 47% of the time after a 1st-and-10 incompletion despite consistently bad results (per Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview). Why does that matter? Because 1. Deshaun Watson was his quarterback, and 2. Those places were consistently very unsuccessful.
In 2019 specifically, the Texans trailed at halftime in nine games, but went 4-5 in those games. Heading into the fourth quarter they trailed in eight of those games, going 4-4 (per Warren Sharp’s 2020 Football Preview).
O’Brien’s stupidity as a play caller constantly put Watson in a position in which he had to play hero ball to give the Texans a chance. Since Watson is an elite quarterback, this worked out in the Texans’ favor well above league average. But O’Brien learned the wrong lesson.
That’s just on the field.
The off-field power struggle between O’Brien and former Texans general manager Rick Smith is more relevant to the future of the Patriots. Essentially a professional feud went public -- a culmination of years of poor communication spurned by a lack of people skills.
Last month, The Ringer’s Nora Princiotti wrote extensively about the idea of “the empathy gap” in NFL:
“Some organizations, like the Patriots or the Steelers, are top-down and hierarchical, which creates clear roles and consistency but limits the agency of most staffers. Others, like the Eagles or the Giants, consult widely throughout departments but sometimes fail to manage the ensuing conflicts over who gets the final say on decisions. There are costs and benefits to each style, but smooth collaboration is the exception, not the norm.”
Organizational implosion in the NFL can often come down to people not knowing how to deal with other people. The Patriots having streamlined this process is a hallmark of the Brady-Belichick era success. It’s also a feature the likes of Josh McDaniels in Denver, Matt Patricia in Detroit, and O’Brien in Houston have failed to effectively replicate. File Joe Judge’s tenure in New York as “TBD”.
Former Broncos receiver Brandon Stokley spoke on WEEI last season about his time under McDaniels in Denver:
“Josh and I had a great relationship in 2009...We talked pretty much every day that year. The following year I was in training camp, got hurt, and he just stopped talking to me. Kind of knew the writing was on the wall then…”
Stokley went on to note that he enjoyed McDaniels as a coach and that the team was always prepared for opponents, but the lack of the human touch from McDaniels, admittedly younger and less experienced over a decade ago, should be a red flag.
Popular belief a few years ago was that McDaniels was the layup pick to succeed Belichick. The rise of Steve Belichick as a defensive play caller, the return of Patricia as Bill’s right hand man, and O’Brien’s glorified internship as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama have muddied the waters.
Regardless of who the Krafts select to succeed Belichick, the successor needs to be able to effectively communicate in a professional setting and show a track record of positive conflict management. Otherwise the post-Belichick Patriots could make like a dying star and implode -- akin to O’Brien’s Texans, McDaniels’ Broncos, or Patricia’s Lions.
Help us Steve Belichick, you’re our only hope.