Eight days ago, the entire narrative surrounding the AFC Championship Game completely flipped.
As Denver (14-3) put the finishing touches on a 33-30 overtime win over the Bills (12-5) in the Divisional Round, their starting quarterback Bo Nix quietly broke a bone in his right ankle. About an hour later, Sean Payton was at the podium saying Nix’s season was over, and that he was confident in backup Jarrett Stidham heading into their biggest game of the year.
Meanwhile, Stidham’s former team in New England (14-3) had a matchup that on paper looked like their toughest to date, as a historically great Texans defense rolled into town looking to spoil the Patriots’ dream season in-progress.
Turns out Houston (12-5) forgot to bring their offense along with them, as the Patriots beat the Texans 28-16 to punch their ticket for a reunion with their former 2019 fourth round pick.
All that stood between New England and their 12th Super Bowl appearance in franchise history was a quarterback who had not thrown a pass in a non-preseason game since the 2023 season, along with a defense that finished the regular season as the No. 2 overall unit in all of football.
Stidham’s rust mixed with a surprise blizzard was too much for Denver to overcome, as Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye and the 2025 Patriots did what they’ve done all season long - beat the teams they’re supposed to beat.
New England beat the Broncos 10-7, marking their first ever playoff win in Denver and keeping their perfect road record (9-0) on the season intact.
History has already been made by this group. It can be cemented with one more win on football’s biggest stage.
Here are your Ups & Downs from Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at Mile High:
Ups:
- Christian Elliss: The way this game was going, the Patriots needed a play like this to change the vibe.
On 3rd and 4 from the Denver 33, Stidham was forced out of the pocket on a blitz from Elliss, who had the added motivation of playing against his brother Jonah on the Broncos. Instead of taking the sack or throwing the ball out of bounds, Stidham attempted to push the ball forward to avoid a massive loss of yardage.
It ended up being ruled a sack-fumble as Stidham’s ball was determined to be a backwards pass (more on that in a bit), and the fumble recovery by Elijah Ponder set up New England for a 1st and 10 from the Denver 12.
Two plays later, it was a touchdown for New England. And an extra point later, the game was tied at 7-7 late in the second quarter.
Elliss deserves the hockey assist for that score.
- A Big Red Zone Stand in Q2: With 9:28 to go in the second quarter, the Broncos were in a position to put the Patriots on the ropes early.
On 4th and 1 from the Patriots 14, Payton opted to go for it instead of taking the points to go up 10-0. With Stidham under center, the Broncos looked to run a quick screen that would have picked up the first down. Milton Williams and Cory Durden had other plans, bull rushing up the middle and forcing Stidham off his spot. That brought on a bad throw to his right that was nearly picked by Craig Woodson.
Pats ended up punting 7 plays later, but their defense deserves the credit for keeping Denver from really changing the story arc of this ballgame.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Down the home stretch of the season, their 27-year-old running back emerged as New England’s second best player on offense.
And on Sunday, they leaned on the fifth-year pro to help control the time of possession throughout the second half.
It was nowhere near Stevenson’s best game of the season, but his 25 carries for 71 yards were crucial to this team’s victory on Sunday. Fumbling issues are a thing of the past. Stevenson is now as reliable as they come in the backfield.
- The Defense: Yes, it was Stidham. And yes, Denver is a team that’s strength is in the way they play defense. But New England’s defense deserves a ton of credit for making Stidham’s life difficult after taking it on the chin early.
He finished the day 17 of 31 for just 133 yards and 1 touchdown, to go along with a pick that sealed the win for the Patriots. He was sacked 3 times for a loss of 31, and had a passer rating of 63.0.
Their running game wasn’t much better, only picking up 79 yards on 24 combined carries as a team.
A hat tip to K’Lavon Chaisson, who was everywhere all game long.
New England might have the most underrated defense in the NFL. But that doesn’t matter, as they’re currently in the process of booking a trip to the Bay Area.
- Leonard Taylor: The defensive tackle was called up from the practice squad on Saturday.
On Sunday, he blocked a field goal attempt by Wil Lutz in the snow that would have tied the game at 10-10 late in the fourth quarter.
What a moment for Taylor. These are the types of plays that happen for teams amidst special seasons.
- Brenden Schooler: New England’s special teams ace showed up early, with two impressive solo tackles on two of the Patriots’ first three punts of the game.
An All-Pro in 2024, Schooler looks like the next Matthew Slater-type in New England for years to come. And on Sunday, he had his best game of the 2025 season.
Is it a bad sign when your gunner is one of the only players listed in the “Ups” column? Typically, yes. But Sunday was just that type of game.
Some Ups, Some Downs:
- Drake Maye: Through four offensive possessions, Maye had a passer rating of 63.2, and looked like he was trending towards one of his worst performances of the season. After consecutive games where the MVP candidate did not land in “Ups,” it was setting up to be a disappointing ending to a season none of us will soon forget.
Had it not been for that aforementioned sack-fumble on Stidham by Elliss leading to Maye’s 6-yard touchdown run just two plays later, there wasn’t going to be much of anything positive for the 23-year-old QB to hang his hat on heading into the second half.
With that said, you have to give him some credit for making a big play with his legs on the final offensive snap of the first half, picking up 16 yards to the Denver 41 yard line while getting down with one second left so Vrabel could call a timeout to set up a 63-yard field goal attempt for Andy Borregales.
The rookie kicker missed, but that’s still a heads up play by Maye to put the Patriots in position for the double-whammy, as they were set to receive the ball to start the second half.
That ho-hum half from Maye only resulted in 72 yards of total offense for New England - their lowest single-half total since putting up just 58 yards in the first half against Jacksonville in 1998. That ended up being a 25-10 loss on Wild Card Weekend
They needed more from the 2025 PFWA Most Improved Player of the Year, who through two quarters was at 7/14 passing for 41 yards with a passer rating of 56.2.
Maye’s legs continued to keep New England in the ballgame to open the second half, as he picked up a massive 28-yard gain while his pocket collapsed on 3rd and 9 to set up New England in the red zone. That drive ended with a field goal for New England to give them a 10-7 lead.
Fast forward to 3rd and 5 in the fourth quarter. A first down seals the win for the Patriots. Maye picked up the first on a 7-yard scramble off a bootleg out of play action, and the game was over.
Maye’s legs, man. They got the job done.
This was far from Maye’s best game, but he did just enough for the Patriots to win the ballgame. Brutal conditions - elevation, crowd noise, an impromptu blizzard, no time to throw - and yet the kid hung in there and did something Tom Brady never did in his entire career.
He won a playoff game in Denver, and there’s one more week of football to play as a result.
- Josh McDaniels: On 2nd and goal from the Denver 2 yard line, the six-time Super Bowl champion assistant coach called a direct snap to Stevenson that was reminiscent of both the early and late dynasty teams (let’s be honest, this play really should be renamed for Kevin Faulk).
But unlike those title-winning teams, Stevenson didn’t look like Faulk out there.
It was a bad snap from center Garrett Bradbury, and Maye didn’t do a great job of selling it. The running back was stuffed for a loss of one, and the Patriots were forced to kick a field goal two plays later to take a 10-7 lead.
Why take the ball out of your best players hands, whose legs are keeping you in the game, when you’re on the 2 yard line on 2nd and goal? Add in the fact that they haven’t run this play at all this season, and it becomes an even more baffling decision.
This isn’t the only reason why McDaniels isn't appearing in “Ups” yet again. He didn’t call a game that allowed Maye to get in a rhythm early. The first two and a half quarters were screaming for McDaniels to get the intermediate passing game going - tight ends and Mack Hollins up the seams, maybe some short passes to Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson.
That didn’t happen.
You have, arguably, the best offensive player in the NFL. You need to do more to get him feeling comfortable early.
Fast forward to their final drive of the third quarter for the Patriots, and you got the good version of McDaniels.
On 2nd and 6 from the Patriots 38, a blizzard broke out in Denver. With visibility as low as it can be in a football game, McDaniels called a flea flicker with Stevenson and Maye, allowing the QB to find Hollins down the field for a gain of 31. It was their first true “ex” play in the passing game all game, and it was a great example of why having an experienced offensive coordinator is huge when playing situational football.
With that said, the Patriots need a better effort from their 49-year-old AP Assistant Coach of the Year candidate in two weeks.
- Andy Borregales: Only putting him here as a way to say that the rookie should not receive much grief at all for his two missed field goals. One was for 63 yards, which would have been the second longest made field goal in Mile High history, and the other was a missed 46-yarder in blizzard conditions that actually looked like it had a chance.
He’s only being mentioned here as a way to say “it’s not your fault” Good Will Hunting style.
Downs:
- Christian Gonzalez: On the second drive of the game for Denver’s offense, the Patriots Pro Bowl corner got flat out beat deep by Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. for a 52-yard gain to set up a 1st and goal from the Patriots 7.
Two plays later, Stidham found Courtland Sutton in the corner of the end zone off of play action for the game’s first touchdown. An extra point later, and Denver was leading 7-0 with 10:19 to go in the first quarter.
Wow.
After a slight regression from his All-Pro season in 2024, the 23-year-old has been nails throughout this entire playoff run. But Stidham caught Gonzalez flat footed, and it led to Denver grabbing the momentum early.
Regardless of who the Patriots play in the Super Bowl, they’re going to have an MVP candidate at quarterback on the opposing sideline. That type of lapse in judgement will be taken advantage of regardless if it’s Matthew Stafford or Sam Darnold under center.
Fast forward to 2:11 remaining in the ballgame, and Gonzalez came down with a pick on Stidham’s worst throw of the game - a completely telegraphed deep ball up the sideline in the blizzard that was the easiest lollipop he’s seen all season long. It was such a bad throw and decision by the backup QB, the pick won’t be enough to lift Gonzalez out of “Downs.”
A player of this caliber needs to be held to a higher standard.
- Pass Blocking: Early and often, Maye was dealing with pressure. Even on clean pockets, Denver’s relentless pass rush was causing problems for a New England offense that could not find its footing.
Maye was sacked 5 times for a loss of 21 yards, and rarely looked comfortable as a passer on Sunday.
Will Campbell struggled again on Sunday, allowing pressure off the edge along with being called for a false start on the team’s final possession of the first half. The group on the whole didn’t play well, but Campbell’s continued struggles are worth pointing out as the two potential fronts New England will see in two weeks aren’t going to make his life any easier moving forward.
A bad day for a unit that has been much improved year-over-year, yet has struggled the last three weeks against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos.
They’ll need a better effort in two weeks.
- Officials: The refs got bailed out of receiving an offseason’s worth of hatred by New England fans with Maye running in that 6-yard score two plays after the Stidham sack-fumble.
There is no universe where that play should have been whistled dead. That should have been a touchdown for Ponder, who smartly picked the ball up and ran it into the end zone. Even though they were correct to change the call on the field from intentional grounding to a backwards pass, they fell short of getting the call all-the-way right by keeping their whistle out of their mouth and letting things play out the way they were supposed to.
Just because the Patriots ended up scoring doesn’t mean I’m going to let them off the hook. Refs remain bad at their job in the NFL, regardless of the stage.
- Bryce Baringer: After the Patriots’ second offensive possession of the game, the third-year punter came on to the field for his second punt of the game.
And instead of pinning Denver deep, Baringer’s punt only went 33 yards, giving the Broncos an incredibly manageable 1st and 10 from their own 23.
That thin Denver air is supposed to help balls on special teams fly. That wasn’t the case for the normally reliable punter on his second attempt on the day. It didn’t result in points for the Broncos, but it’s the type of shank that’s going to burn you in two weeks.
Late in the second quarter, the Patriots were stuffed on 3rd and 5 from their own 15 to bring Baringer out for another punt. They needed him to come out and absolutely boot this thing to keep Denver from getting points before half. Instead, he absolutely skyed it for a punt of 41 yards, giving the Broncos manageable field position to put up points before half.
Denver’s offense gave the normally reliable Lutz a great chance to give them a 10-7 lead heading into the half, setting him up for a 54-yard field goal. He went wide right, and Baringer was again let off the hook.
Fast forward to the fourth quarter, and the Patriots were forced to punt on 4th and 11 from their own 7 yard line. It was another situation where they needed Baringer to punt the bleep out of the football, using as much leg strength as possible to cut through the swirling blizzard winds.
Instead, he skyed it again, shanking the ball for a 26-yard punt that set Denver up for 1st and 10 from the New England 33.
Just awful, man.
Again, Baringer was bailed out by one of his teammates a few plays later, as Taylor blocked Lutz’s 45-yard field goal attempt that would’ve tied the game at 10-10.
The punter is going to have to bury this game tape and never have another performance like this again.
- Injury to Monitor: After a gang tackle on 1st and 10 from the Denver 44, Robert Spillane remained on the ground after ending up on the bottom of the pile on the 1-yard gain. ESPN’s Mike Reiss posted on X that Spillane slammed his helmet on the ground while remaining down.
After a few moments, Spillane came off the field on his own power and went right to the blue medical tent. Shortly thereafter, beat reporters on the scene shared that Spillane went from the tent to the locker room. Moments later, the team announced the 30-year-old was questionable to return with an ankle injury. With just under 10:00 to play in the second quarter, Doug Kyed of The Boston Herald posted on X that Spillane was back on the sidelines testing out that banged up ankle. He did not re-enter the ballgame
As one of New England’s most important defensive pieces as the wearer of the “green dot,” Spillane already missed four consecutive games to close out the regular season with an injury to his foot and ankle.
They will need him to win a Super Bowl, plain and simple.
Unfortunately, we will now wait two weeks for the Patriots to play in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. With that said, we’ll only have to wait a few more hours to see who they’ll play.
Sunday's NFC Championship Game kicks off in Seattle at 6:30 p.m. ET, as the Seahawks (14-3) play host to the Rams (12-5). As of publishing, Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite (-104) at FanDuel, sitting on the moneyline at -138. Rams are a slight underdog at +2.5 (-118), with their moneyline currently set at +118. The total for this one is 45.5.
Tune in each and every Monday throughout the football season to Patriots Monday on WEEI. Head coach Mike Vrabel joins The Greg Hill Show at 6:30 a.m. ET, and quarterback Drake Maye joins WEEI Afternoons.