After months and months of evaluations and rumors, Round 1 of the NFL Draft is finally days away.
There were even more rumors the last few days, particularly relating to the Patriots and the quarterback position.
In a roughly four-hour span Monday morning, there were various reports that said it would be a surprise to see the Patriots not trade up for a quarterback, they are trying to trade into the top 10 and appear to be targeting Justin Fields, they are more likely to trade back than move up, and Jimmy Garoppolo could be “more available than he’s been.”
Well then. It is smokescreen season, after all.
Here are some random thoughts on all these rumors and potential first-round options for the Patriots, who currently select No. 15 overall.
— The closer the draft gets, the more and more it feels like one or two of the top five quarterbacks will slide towards the end of the top 10. This comes after there was a time where the Patriots were being rumored to potentially trade up to No. 4 in order to land a quarterback. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore, but it still feels like none of the top five players at the position will be on the board when they are on the clock at No. 15. Trading from No. 15 to No. 7 or 8 is a lot easier than going from No. 15 to No. 4, especially following what the 49ers gave up to move from No. 12 to No. 3.
— It would be hard to imagine Denver not selecting a quarterback if one of the top five fall that far. Since the other teams know that, do not be surprised to see a team trade to No. 7 (Lions) or No. 8 overall (Panthers), as those feel like two teams willing to trade back.
— Who the 49ers end up selecting at No. 3 overall could certainly impact whether or not Garoppolo actually becomes available. If Mac Jones is the pick, the likelihood Garoppolo is dealt goes up because he’s more NFL ready than Trey Lance. If Lance is the pick, it makes more sense for the 49ers to hold onto Garoppolo for another year. And if Garoppolo is actually traded, the number of suitors he’ll have won’t be all that high, but the Patriots figure to absolutely be one of them.
— One thing to keep an eye on with the Patriots and potentially acquiring Garoppolo: Cam Newton. Based on social media, he’s been working extremely hard with some of the new Patriots pass-catchers and has been attending the voluntary offseason workouts the last two weeks. Garoppolo would likely be the starter, so how would Newton react? How would the locker room react? After all, there were reports one of the reasons Jarrett Stidham didn’t start down the stretch last year was because of how going away from Newton might impact the locker room. Given his injury history, Garoppolo would need a capable backup, but if Newton didn’t want to do it, his contract certainly wouldn’t prevent the Patriots from releasing him.
— While the bulk of the rumors in recent days have had the Patriots trading up, knowing how Bill Belichick thinks, trading down might be the better bet. The organization could feel it could get the same player it wants at No. 15 in the 20s and at that point it would make sense to trade back and pick up extra selections. New England does have a 50-pick gap between picks No. 46 and 96 and that is considered to be the sweet-spot in the draft. Don’t be surprised to see them make a few trades to change that.
— If they do stay at No. 15 overall, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them go defense because of the quality of players that may be available on that side of the ball. There’s likely going to be a huge run on offensive players ahead of them (quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle) and that would allow for a top 10 defensive talent to suddenly become available, which might be too hard for Belichick to pass up.
— It would be an absolute shock if the Patriots do not add a quarterback at all over the next week. But predicting who it will be is another story. At this point, despite all the smoke our gut says it won’t be Fields, or any of the top five players at the position. If Garoppolo is made available for a second-rounder, that would make a ton of sense. But if that doesn’t happen, they can sell themselves on Cam Newton being better in Year 2 and then reevaluate things next offseason when the narrative with the team is likely a lot better than it was this offseason.