1 - Monday night in Arizona, however you choose to look at it, represents a must-win game for the Patriots on a number of fronts. If the team is to get its offense on track, restore some confidence to the defense, begin the rebuilding process of QB Mac Jones, take the heat off of coach Bill Belichick and play-caller Matt Patricia, and keep their playoff hopes alive, then they have to defeat the Cardinals. Preferably in a lopsided or double-digit affair.
A one-sided no doubt win, the “get-right game” is what should take place, even if the Pats are only two-point favorites. Despite Kyler Murray’s athletic gifts and DeAndre Hopkins’ receiving talents, these are the types of teams the Patriots used to take care of with relative ease. The Cards are mired in a disappointing season that has seen QB and coach feud, with injuries aplenty and offensive inconsistency the norm (sound familiar?). A fundamentally sound effort on both sides of the ball should be the “get right” formula for a team that needs to satisfy a number of parties. Especially ownership, who, if we are to believe reports from Greg Bedard (and backed up by our own Christian Fauria), might place Belichick on the hot seat if the Pats don’t cruise Monday night. Yikes!
Since winning cures all, a big fat dub would likely do good by the many issues these Patriots are dealing with. Downing the Cards in convincing fashion won’t heal every injured muscle, ligament and relationship, but it would help across the board. Especially if the postseason is any sort of legitimate consideration.
The Pats are currently the AFC’s eighth seed and will likely be dueling with the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers the rest of the way for the final spot. The Jets' remaining five games are at Buffalo, home vs the Lions and Jaguars, then on the road at Seattle and a finale in Miami. The Chargers, meanwhile, host the Dolphins then Titans before taking to the road for a game against the Colts, then it’s home vs the Rams and a Week 18 finale at the Broncos. Seems likely that 10 wins will do the trick for the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. The Patriots asking themselves to win out, should they lose to the Cardinals, given how stiff the competition is over the final three games (Cincinnati, Miami, then at Buffalo) is an absurd ask, hence why a triumph Monday night in Arizona is a must.
The confidence boost that something as simple as taking care of business would provide can’t be overlooked or overstated at this point. Losing a winnable affair in Minnesota and then getting overwhelmed by Buffalo at home has morale pretty low in Foxborough right now. “Do Your Job” at State Farm Stadium, then take that win and whatever confidence comes with it to Allegiant Stadium in Vegas vs. old pal Josh McDaniels and the reeling Raiders, and maybe a streak can get started before the tough trio to wrap the season. Lose and we’ll be seeing a lot more hot takes, mock drafts and headlines about heads potentially rolling at Gillette Stadium. Hardly the way we like to spend the holidays in Pats Nation.
2 - Speaking of the (gasp!) potential of heads rolling at One Patriot Place, there have been the aforementioned rumblings of displeasure within the executive ranks of the Patriots as to how this season is going, the torpid state of the offense and the criticism the team has been facing. Robert Kraft, who can’t have been too pleased about getting flexed out of primetime in Week 15 vs. Las Vegas, has stated clearly and vocally how he isn’t happy about how long it’s been since the team last won a playoff game. Many franchises would kill to have but a three-season drought since the franchise's last playoff victory, but many other teams aren’t the Patriots.
If things go sideways Monday night, and if the season goes into a tailspin, could ownership really consider not just changes on the staff but the ultimate change, the unthinkable; parting ways with Bill Belichick? Seems unlikely from here, but we’re through expecting anything to play as we expect anymore, even with what we used to rely on for being the model of consistency in the Patriots. The idea of Life After Belichick (sounds like an NFL Network after school special) was broached recently on NBC Sports Boston, and Phil Perry mentioned one potential candidate with no head coaching experience yet some real merit.
Jerod Mayo, who’s been a member of the Patriots defensive staff since 2019, drew interest last offseason with two head coaching interviews, and is sure to draw the same if not more interest this offseason. Again, the idea of Bill Belichick’s run with the Patriots coming to an end at the conclusion of this season seems as far-fetched as Tom Brady returning triumphantly to lead the Patriots to Super Bowl 58. But if that were to be the case, Mayo would likely garner serious consideration. He’s adored, admired and appreciated greatly in the organization. He’s as hard-working as they come, and he’s been with one team since being drafted by the Pats in 2008. Making Mayo the coach could potentially be as much a valuing the asset as much as a preventing the asset from walking out the door. The ultimate “what if…?” scenario would be in the Krafts are frustrated with how the Belichick tenure has been going, and they know they risk losing Mayo to another team, could that influence their decision to let Bill Belichick pursue his goal of surpassing Don Shula’s all-time wins record (347) elsewhere? Again, if we were betting we’d still have our chips on Belichick calling the plays on the sidelines in Foxborough in 2023. But we might also bet on Mayo be a DC or even HC someplace in 2023 as well. A fascinating subplot spinning off of the “Pats need to finish strong” main story arc.
3 - You know what helps a team win? A million things, of course. Chief among the essentials to victory is health, which has eluded both the Patriots and the Cardinals to a significant degree this season. Monday night could very well be “healthiest team standing wins” to some degree. The Patriots have had a rash of injuries and illness sweep through their locker room recently, leading three starters to be ruled out for Monday night’s game already.
Starting receiver Jakobi Meyers, right tackle Isaiah Wynn and corner Jalen Mills were declared out before the team traveled to Arizona. That takes away the Pats' leading receiver and depletes a receiving corps that hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard of late. Wynn’s continued absence challenges an offensive line that was overmatched vs. Buffalo and has been fielding a different starting five for weeks. And the loss of Mills stresses a secondary that will have to contend with DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown, both of whom are averaging seven catches a game. Fortunately for New England speedster wideout Rondale Moore has already been ruled out for Arizona, as has corner Byron Murphy, Jr. For what it's worth, Damien Harris has been listed as doubtful, so expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson once again.
Mac Jones had success against a similar secondary in Minnesota a few weeks back, so even without Meyers, who missed a portion of that game as well, he might find opportunities for positive plays. The Cards don't give up a lot of big plays, but they rank among the bottom third in passing defense, and their red zone defense is the opposite of good. Expect a heavy dose of the tight ends involved Monday night…and maybe this time there won’t be a controversy as to what is or isn’t a catch at the goal line! Sarcasm fully intended.
4 - A little nugget for the stat-heads and history buffs regarding Monday night’s game: the Patriots hold the 8-7 all-time record in the Patriots vs. Cardinals series. Their last matchup, a last-minute improbable 20-17 Patriots victory with a 50-yard Nick Folk FG at the buzzer for the win. Bill Belichick is 4-1 against the Cardinals as Patriots coach, the lone defeat a 20-18 loss at Gillette with Stephen Gostkowski shanking a game-winning kick in the final seconds. He is also 1-0 at this stadium against the Cardinals (more on that in a minute). A win Monday would even the all-time series.
5 - As to Belichick and games at State Farm Stadium…lest we forget it was previously known as University of Phoenix Stadium. The venue is no stranger to memorable games for the New England Patriots. Monday night marks the fourth time the Pats will have played there under Bill Belichick. The first, and most infamous of those games, being Super Bowl 42…and we don't need to go on about that one. The second time - ah, much better! Super Bowl 49 and the surreal Malcolm Butler interception to preserve a stunning championship. The third and most recent game also bore historical significance.
The 2016 season opener, with young Jimmy Garoppolo filling in for a suspended Tom Brady, found a fully inflated Pats team escaping the desert with a 23-21 victory. Most expected a solid Cards team to win against Jimmy G in his first start, but the third year QB played well and the Pats rallied around him for the win (the missed last-minute Arizona FG helped, too). Will Monday’s game add to New England’s history of thrillers out west, or be the poorly received sequel released years later to a satisfying trilogy?
6 - Suffice to say we know who Bill Belichick will be pulling for in the 2022 World Cup semifinals.
Belichick is very proud of his Croatian heritage and has worn patches on his coaching attire with the Croatian emblem as part of the NFL’s initiative to let coaches wear decals or emblems that resemble a “flag that represents their nationality or cultural heritage.” It came during the Pats Week 4 tilt in Green Bay (Bill's father Steve was Croatian). Belichick made mention of the match during his Friday presser, pleased with the result (Croatia upset Brazil in penalty kicks). Croatia, back in the semis again as in 2018, has a final four match against heavily favored Argentina Tuesday at 2 p.m. EST…which would make for a nice watch out west for the coach and his players after a win Monday night, should that be in the cards (we’ll take a lap for that).
7 - Lastly, on a tangentially related Patriots topic…the NFL’s most recent primetime game, Thursday night’s improbable Rams win over the Raiders, was a thriller, as was last Monday’s come-from-behind win for ol’ pal Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, so the Pats and Cards have a lot to live up to (hint: don't play press-man cover with a rookie corner and the game in the balance with under 30 seconds remaining). What made the win for the Rams, their first since the middle of October, was QB Baker Mayfield, freshly claimed off waivers, having just arrived less than 48 hours prior to kickoff, playing for LA. He played very well, all things considered.
Mayfield, now on his third team in five years after being released from Carolina, where he was sent unceremoniously after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, is in an interesting spot. He has a few games remaining to basically audition for a job in 2023, likely not on the Rams, presuming Matthew Stafford returns to good health. There could be a number of teams interested in taking a flier on the former Heisman Trophy and Rookie of the Year winner, as he certainly has talent and at age 27 has plenty of football left in the tank. His availability, and the story that the Patriots allegedly were interested in trading up for him in the 2018 draft (yes, back when they had Tom Brady!) makes you wonder if maybe, just maybe…who knows? If Bill Belichick gets his team together and remains on the sidelines in Foxborough for 2023, he could potentially have his pick of QBs he once groomed or thought could be his next big thing in Mac Jones, Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo, who likely will be done with San Francisco after this season. Chances are slim either of the latter two come to New England, but stranger things have happened…like Mayfield leading a 98-yard drive for the win with less than two minutes remaining after having a day to look at the Rams playbook. But that’s 2022 NFL for you.
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