We are officially halfway through August and preseason football is underway! With the regular season now on the horizon, fantasy football drafts are coming up quickly and you need to be as prepared as possible if you want to finally claim that elusive title of fantasy champion. The Fantasy Brief is going to provide as much information as possible so that you can conquer your friends and total strangers in the ultimate fantasy sport. Position rankings are great, but with camp just starting, everyone is faced with so many different questions. Which second-year receivers are expected to explode? How do you approach questionable backfields? How will injuries impact certain top-tier players? Well, Twitter came through and gave me the players that seem to befuddle people the most.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Consensus ADP in Half PPR: 28th Overall, 16th Running Back
Josh Jacobs should be the perfect candidate for a breakout season, but Jon Gruden’s gone and messed it all up. During the offseason, the Raiders decided it would be in the team’s best interest to trade two starting offensive lineman and not go out and replace them. Then, Gruden felt it necessary to sign Kenyan Drake to a relatively pricey two-year, 14.5 million dollar deal with $11 million guaranteed. Ultimately, an expected drop in offensive line play and now having to split time with Kenyan Drake makes Josh Jacobs far less valuable than he could have been. If Drake were to suffer an injury, then Jacobs may naturally become the three-down back we all know he can be, but without that one scenario, I just can’t see Jacobs increasing on his 33 receptions and 273 carries last season. His current ADP slots him in the beginning of the third round in a normal 12-team league, which seems accurate. There is a small chance he remains a thousand yard rusher and can find the endzone eight or nine times. Low-end RB2 seems to be the correct valuation with small hope for higher upside. Honestly, Josh Jacobs isn’t a player I’m dying to have on my team.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Consensus ADP in Half PPR: 59th Overall, 24th Wide Receiver
First things first, the report that Michael Thomas will miss at least the first five games of the season recovering from his ankle surgery immediately makes him a massive risk. Assuming Thomas only misses the first five weeks, you then have to deal with who the quarterback is for the Saints. The combination of these two major questions make it impossible to suggest taking him at the current ADP of 59 overall. The key with Michael Thomas is to not need him, but be the beneficiary of a possible comeback right around the time you need to start making a playoff push. If he was healthy, Thomas would have a somewhat realistic shot at bouncing back after last year’s disappointing season. If Taysom Hill is named the Saints' starting quarterback, Thomas should definitely get targets. In four games with Hill last year, he was getting just over nine targets per game and about 86 yards per game. The major issue was zero touchdowns in those four games and with Hill at quarterback and the touchdown machine that is Alvin Kamara, it seems unlikely Thomas would get a ton of red zone opportunities. To be honest, Michael Thomas is a stay away for me until his value becomes just too good to pass up. Don’t jump too early, but if he is still hanging around in the 11th or 12th round, I say jump because you should have your roster mostly filled out by then anyways and he becomes an easy drop if his injury holds him out longer than expected.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Current ADP in Half PPR: 90th Overall, 35th Wide Receiver
Easily the first player on this list that I am very high on. Jeudy has the opportunity to absolutely blow up in 2021. In my mind, he seems almost quarterback-proof this season as Teddy Bridgewater knows how to distribute the ball to his playmakers and Drew Lock is a big fan of playing YOLO ball. The biggest sign that Jeudy is bound to explode is the positive touchdown regression headed his way. People generally don’t pay attention to the rate of uncatchable balls thrown to receivers, but in Jeudy’s case it’s necessary. Jeudy led the league in uncatchable targets last season with 26. He had a league high 23 percent of his targets deemed uncatchable. On top of that, five of his seven red zone targets were also deemed uncatchable, which was second in the NFL. As long as Jeudy converts four or fie red zone opportunities and gets an increase in catchable targets, his numbers are going to get him into the WR1 conversation.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ADP in Half PPR: 48th Overall, 23rd Running Back
Yet another unfortunate circumstance for a guy so many people love. In 2020, Robinson was a massive force for so many championship teams and now his work load is a total question mark. After accounting for 86 percent of the Jaguars' rushing attempts in only 14 games last year, Robinson faces a committee backfield with Travis Etienne and even the possibility of becoming a full-time backup. Urban Meyer came in and drafted Etienne in the first round and has no prior ties to Robinson which leaves everything up in the air. I think there’s a realistic chance that James Robinson outright loses his job this season to a guy that cost much more capital to acquire and had SEVENTY touchdowns at Clemson. This again becomes a situation of value, where if he is still available in the seventh or eighth round, you should take the flier for, at the very least, a massive upside handcuff.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Current ADP in Half PPR: 38th Overall, 12th Wide Receiver
The Dallas Cowboys are generally a conundrum for football fans across the country. We always expect so much of them, but in recent years they haven’t been able to meet expectations. Last season was the latest example, when Dak Prescott went down with a season ending ankle injury, completely debilitating the offense. Even with all that being said, CeeDee Lamb is in a phenomenal position for a second-year jump in production. Prior to his injury, Prescott was on pace to throw for nearly 6000 yards last season. Even if you were to only get 70 percent of what Prescott’s pace was in 2020, he would still be slated for nearly 4500 yards in 2021. Any concerns of Lamb’s targets and yards being snaked by Amari Cooper or Michael Galliup should be resolved by the sheer volume at which Dallas passes. On top of the explosiveness of the offense, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has shown the desire to shuffle his three receivers around in the formation. In the first preseason game against the Steelers, Moore had both Lamb and Gallup running routes from the outside and the slot. There is going to be more creativity to an already explosive offense which opens the door for insane numbers opportunities for CeeDee Lamb.