Before the 2025 season even started, the Patriots’ (12-3) Week 16 game against Baltimore (7-8) was always a game media and fans had circled.
Whether you were glass-half-full with your preseason prediction, or you were someone who felt like year one of Mike Vrabel was going to be a foundation-building season that had them around .500 when it was all said and done, Sunday night’s game against the Ravens was always a met with the same reaction when going through the slate:
“Week 16 at Baltimore - that’s gonna be a tough one.”
Fast forward to late December, and the outlooks for these two teams have completely flipped.
The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives with two weeks to go, hovering around .500 after an early season stretch ravaged by injuries on both sides of the football.
The Patriots are in the midst of one of the more miraculous year-over-year turnarounds this century, clinching a playoff berth Sunday night and knocking on the doorstep of the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a first-year head coach and a second-year quarterback.
After a reality check performance against Buffalo (11-4) in Week 15, the Patriots got the train back on the tracks at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, beating the Ravens 28-24 and showing the entire country that they are more than a product of their historically weak schedule.
They can play tough teams, and they can win tough games.
Here are your Ups & Downs for Week 16:
Ups:
- Drake Maye: I know he threw a bad pick on the team’s opening possession in the red zone, and some might say that this automatically disqualifies him from appearing in “Ups.”
But without Maye making big throw after big throw throughout the entirety of Sunday night, the Patriots have no shot in Baltimore.
Four plays before that aforementioned pick, Maye dropped a ball perfectly into Hunter Henry’s hands in the corner of the end zone. The tight end was unable to come down with it, but it was a great ball by the 23-year-old that gets lost in the fold after the early interception.
On his team’s next possession, Maye was the catalyst of his team playing complimentary football, driving the ball 68 yards for a touchdown on 10 plays. The last three plays of that drive:
- On 3rd and 13, a 20-yard pass to Mack Hollins up the middle of the field, where Maye put the ball where only his receiver could grab it
- On 1st and 10, a 26-yard pass to Austin Hooper that set the Patriots up for a 1st and goal from the Baltimore 1 (this throw-and-catch had Brady-to-Gronk-in-Denver vibes)
- On 1st and goal, a 1-yard touchdown pass to Henry after a perfect fake hand-off to Rhamondre Stevenson that had everyone on the field fooled
That sequence right there is why Maye is in the MVP discussion. Arm talent and accuracy mixed with athleticism makes him one of the very best at his position right now.
Fast forward to New England’s final drive of the first half, and Maye had four consecutive completions on four consecutive plays, driving the ball 35 yards all the way to the Baltimore 30 yard line. It was another sequence that showed off Maye’s decisiveness. Unfortunately for Maye, he was let down by left tackle Vederian Lowe, who got beat on the left side of the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 2 forcing Maye to step up into pressure on the other side of the line by safety Ar’Darius Washington, who initially was handled by Rhamondre Stevenson. He didn’t hold him long enough, and Maye was brought down for a sack-fumble that ended the Patriots’ chances of putting up points before half.
Again, people will want him in “Downs” for this. But blame pie for this one should grade out with Lowe receiving the largest piece.
Fast forward to the fourth quarter, and Maye gave the Patriots life like defibrillator paddles against a nearly dead man’s chest.
On 1st and 10 from the Baltimore 37, Maye placed a ball directly into the bucket that was Kyle Williams’ hands, who was blanketed by two defenders as he arched backwards while sprinting toward the front right pylon. He made the impressive grab, and was in the end zone for six. Patriots went for two, and a shifty Maye avoided the sack to find Stevenson at the goal line for a successful two-point try.
It went from an 11-point Baltimore lead to a three-point Baltimore lead in the blink of an eye. It’s exactly what the doctor ordered.
Just another highlight for the MVP reel for Maye.
On his team’s next possession, Maye helped orchestrate a 9 play, 89-yard touchdown drive that gave New England a 28-24 lead with 2:07 remaining in the fourth quarter. The drive included 6 completions by Maye, including two of 20-plus that put Stevenson in position to score the go-ahead 21-yard touchdown run with just over 2:00 to play.
Maye had a career-high 380 yards passing on the day, and was the primary reason why this team came away with the victory.
A gritty, impressive performance from the kid out of North Carolina.
- Jaylinn Hawkins: Shoutout to the 28-year-old safety for making a timely play early in the game that helped change the momentum at a sneaky crucial moment.
It may have only been the first quarter, but the Ravens were marching up the field after a Maye pick gave Baltimore the ball on their own 4 yard line.
Eight plays later, the Ravens were on the New England 37 yard line.
On 2nd and 4, Derrick Henry rushed for what would have been yet another first down for Baltimore, if not for Hawkins swooping in from the backside to punch the ball out while Carlton Davis was tackling the future Hall of Famer. Rookie Craig Woodson picked up the football, and the Patriots were able to take some wind out of Baltimore’s sails.
Had the Ravens continued going the way they were going, it would have been an early 14-0 lead on a team not yet used to playing in the role of comeback kid.
They ended up having to assume that role anyways, but it’s a completely different game if that role is assumed much earlier on.
Hawkins’ heads-up play will go on his end-of-season highlight tape.
- Stefon Diggs: It won’t go down as his best game in a Patriots uniform, but the 32-year-old’s sure-handedness was on full display throughout the course of the night.
9 catches on 10 targets for 138 yards, and was getting great separation all game long.
His biggest play of the day was a 20-yard gain on 4th and 2 from the Baltimore 48 with just under 3:00 to play. It was reminiscent of prime Diggs in Buffalo, really,
He came out of the game for 5 plays in the first quarter after an awkward tackle (more on that later). Outside of that, Diggs was back to being a big part of the game plan after multiple weeks where the former All-Pro was basically nonexistent from the boxscore.
- Mack Hollins: For the second straight week, Hollins was someone who made big plays for the New England offense, catching 7 balls on 9 targets for 69 yards.
His connection with Maye is real, and he’s been a revelation as a reliable pass catcher in his first year in New England all season long.
Hollins was someone who made clutch catches for Buffalo during their run to the AFC Championship Game last year. I anticipate he’ll be a big part of the plan for the Patriots as they look to do the same next month.
Incomplete:
- Lamar Jackson: The two-time league MVP exited the game towards the end of the second quarter with a back injury.
It’s not like he was in the midst of a big game, but any time a player of that caliber exits the ballgame, it changes the entire outlook of how a game is played by both teams.
Not enough good or bad by Jackson to land him in either section, but his injury was impactful enough to beget its own category.
More on injuries coming in a bit.
Downs:
- Jeremy Springer: …or Mike Vrabel, or whoever was responsible for that fake punt attempt in the third quarter.
This was almost the turning point in the ballgame, with the Patriots down 17-13 at their own 44 yard line on a 4th and 10.
Instead of just punting the ball away, they direct-snapped the ball to Marte Mapu in the personal protector spot. It was as if the safety had no idea the ball was coming to him, and he eventually fumbled the football while carrying it like a loaf of bread.
Turnover on downs, and Baltimore was now in New England territory, perfectly set up to make it a two-score game as the game rolled into the fourth quarter.
7 plays and 4:03 later, that’s exactly what they did, as Derrick Henry rushed it in to help make it a 24-13 ballgame.
You really just have to see this thing to believe it. Just completely out of character for this coaching staff.
- Defense: With their best defensive tackle in Milton Williams still on IR to go along with their best linebacker in Robert Spillane missing his second straight week due to an ankle injury, you already knew the defensive side of the football was going to be an issue on Sunday night.
And out of the gate, Baltimore took advantage like a knife through soft butter.
5 plays, 65 yards, 2:39 off the clock, 7-0 Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson was able to find Zay Flowers on gains of both 19 and 18 yards respectively, and Derrick Henry was the finisher on the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run through a gaping hole on the left side of the line of scrimmage.
Slow starts on defense have been a problem all season long. And with the injuries piling up with guys like Marcus Jones, Carlton Davis and Harold Landry all being listed as questionable heading into Sunday, that problem got even more difficult to solve for a unit that’s been without its defensive coordinator since September.
Fast forward to the third quarter, and the entire left side of the field for the defense at every level - defensive line, linebackers and secondary - collectively took awful angles and missed tackles en route to an 18-yard touchdown run for Zay Flowers. Brutal stuff from a unit that’s certainly banged up, but that’s all effort.
On their next defensive possession (set up by the worst fake punt attempt this century by the Patriots), six straight runs by Baltimore led to Henry scoring his second touchdown of the game. Battered, bruised and lacking confidence, they just had no answers for the Ravens’ rushing attack.
Lucky for New England, Baltimore decided to go away from their running game down the stretch. Why? That's for John Harbaugh to explain. Had Baltimore not moved away from riding Henry, they might win this game.
- Red Zone Offense: Even with this team at double-digit wins, we continue to write about the same issues for the Patriots week after week.
Appearing again in the “Downs” category is red zone offense - a facet of the game that showed up as an issue for New England on their first offensive possession of the ballgame.
After a 7-yard gain from Rhamondre Stevenson on 1st and 10 from the Ravens 26 pushed the Patriots inside the 20, here’s what happened on their next six plays:
- TreVeyon Henderson rush for 2 yards
- Hunter Henry drops what would have been a 17-yard touchdown pass from Maye
- Maye rush for 2 yards on 4th and 1
- Henderson bottled up for a loss of 3 yards
- Maye sacked for a loss of 1 as he scampered out of bounds
- Maye picked off on a forced ball to a covered Kayshon Boutte on 3rd and 13
That simply won’t cut it against good football teams in the postseason.
- Officiating: It’s been bad the last few weeks, there’s no doubt about it. And I felt like it was better this week. But on the second to last play of the first half, a phantom flag on a curious roughing the passer call on Jack Gibbens negated a fumble recovery by New England that would have given them a chance at points before the end of the second quarter.
Watching this play over and over again, and it’s hard to see what the refs were seeing here.
Fast forward to the second half, and Kayshon Boutte was called for a questionable-at-best OPI that stalled a New England drive that, in the moment, felt like they needed to stay alive.
This duo of poor judgments lands the zebras back in “Downs.”
And if those weren’t enough, the refs missed one of the more obvious DPI calls on Boutte downfield that would have put Baltimore on life support late in the fourth quarter.
The officiating in this league continues to be at an all-time low.
- Vederian Lowe: Like the officials listed above him, with his blunder directly leading to the Patriots missing out on points, he’s earned himself a spot in downs - a place he was a mainstay in during the 2024 season.
No reason to rehash the play here, as you just read about it during Maye’s section in “Ups.”
Patriots fans should be lighting candles for a speedy Will Campbell recovery this holiday season.
- Injuries To Monitor: Buckle up, because it’s a long list.
You never want to see any player get injured under any circumstance. But with how well TreVeyon Henderson has played of late, it was especially devastating to see the 23-year-old go down in the second quarter. He was down for a while, and really took his time getting over to the blue medical tent.
Just before halftime, it was announced that the Ohio State-product was questionable to return with a head injury. At the top of the third quarter, he was announced as out. If Henderson goes into concussion protocol, this will quickly become one of the biggest storylines of the Patriots’ season thus far, as he’s become a true home run hitter for New England since Week 8.
While he only missed five snaps after a nice catch on the Patriots’ opening possession, Diggs having to leave the game for any reason is always going to be notable. He was brought down on an awkward tackle after that 25-yard gain, so this will be something to monitor moving forward.
Morgan Moses was announced as questionable to return during the second quarter with a knee injury. He was seen on the sidelines walking up and down, trying to work his way back into the game.
Rookie Joshua Farmer, a depth piece for that defensive line unit out of Florida State, was also announced as questionable to return during the second quarter with a hamstring injury. At the top of the third, he was officially ruled out.
On their third possession, tackle Thayer Mumford, who was already filling in for Moses, went down with an injury. It was another moment where the player took a fair amount of time to work his way off the field. He was announced as questionable to return with a knee injury.
Towards the end of the second quarter, it was announced that secondary depth piece Charles Woods was questionable to return with an ankle injury. In the fourth quarter, he was officially listed as out.
Just before half, Khyiris Tonga was announced as questionable to return with a foot injury. In the fourth quarter, he was officially listed as out.
Midway through the third quarter, DeMario Douglas was announced as questionable to return with a hamstring injury.
On the Patriots final drive, Kayshon Boutte was announced as questionable to return with a head injury.
For almost the entirety of New England’s 10-game win streak, they were blessed with good health. It was only towards the end of that streak with injuries to Williams, Spillane and Will Campbell where the injury bug started to become a concern. It feels like it’s starting to be time for the Patriots to pay the piper on that front.
Not what you want with the postseason just two weeks away.
The Patriots close out the final two games of their regular season starting next Sunday, as they hit the road for their Week 17 game against the Jets (3-12). New England needs wins against both New York and Miami (6-9) to clinch their first AFC East crown since 2019.
As of publishing, the Patriots are a 9.5-point road favorite, and sit on the moneyline at -500.
Tune in each and every Monday throughout the football season to Patriots Monday on WEEI. Head coach Mike Vrabel joins The Greg Hill Show at 6:30 a.m. ET, and quarterback Drake Maye joins WEEI Afternoons.