“I’m seeing ghosts.”
Sam Darnold’s words from October of 2019 surely stick in the minds of Patriots fans like the memory of a lost lover.
The knee jerk reaction around these parts is to associate a Patriots matchup with Darnold with a free win and multiple turnovers. In three games played against Bill Belichick, Darnold is 0-3 with a 53.2% completion percentage and has averaged 5.5 yards per attempt. Whether he’s conjuring up spirits on the turf is a separate discussion but the bottom line is that Belichick has had Darnold’s number.
The prevailing thought when the Jets traded Darnold to the Panthers this past offseason was that he’s the next Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill and former Dolphin Kenyan Drake both went to better teams with better systems in the Titans and Cardinals and had immediate success. Trained football eyes were high on Tannehill the entire time in Miami, and the same can be said about Darnold in New York. I too said the same thing about Darnold, I said that he’s clearly a good quarterback, but he’s in a haunted house.
If Darnold were the star of a horror movie, the movie would be Insidious. For those unfamiliar with the film, Patrick Wilson and his family live in a haunted house. It becomes so bad that they buy a new house and move, only to find it was not the house that was haunted, but in fact it was them who were haunted.
The price of real estate in 2021 makes this near impossible to the common man, but I digress.
Through eight weeks, it might be safe to say Darnold is haunted.
Darnold had us all fooled through three games. Against the Jets, Saints, and Texans, Darnold averaged 296 passing yards per game, 8.31 adjusted passing yards per attempt, and a 63.8 QBR. Carolina’s defense has been great, the offensive line has been fine but is definitely hit or miss, and the team has some of the best skill position players in the league, in addition to a bright, young offensive mind in Joe Brady.
After Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 3 against the Texans, Darnold’s play plummeted. It wasn’t outstanding to begin with, but since Week 3 he’s averaged 185.2 passing yards per game, 5.48 adjusted passing yards per attempt, and a 35.5 QBR. It’s fair to say that as McCaffrey goes, the Panthers go. Darnold is not the only aspect of the team to bilaterally suffer from McCaffrey’s injury -- but no other team in the NFL has a running back as dynamic as McCaffrey and it doesn’t bode well for Darnold’s career if his success is dependent on having an offensive weapon that 31 teams in the league don’t possess.
Further evidence of whatever spooky stench came with Darnold from the Jets to the Panthers is that Darnold isn’t necessarily playing better than he did with New York. His competition percentage and interception percentage are right around where they were with the Jets, while his touchdown percentage is much lower than the 3.66 he averaged in three years in New York.
I’m as big of an Adam Gase hater as anyone and as big of a Darnold defender as they come, and while the Jets drafting Darnold in the first place may have been the death sentence on his career it’s undeniable that Darnold is still seeing ghosts. Should he play Sunday, pending a concussion suffered this past week, expect that to continue.
Here are three more aspects of the Carolina Panthers to keep an eye on this Sunday...
Chubawamba
Speaking of McCaffrey, the Panthers’ contingency plan at running back has been to split carries between fourth-round rookie and hardcore liberal snowflake Chuba Hubbard and veteran Royce Freeman. Results have been mixed. Freeman is nothing to write home about, while Hubbard has been under four yards per carry each of Carolina’s last three games after breaking the mark in the previous three. But Hubbard’s yards after contact have been monumental in keeping the chains moving for the Panthers -- Hubbard is 14th in the category despite only being a full time starter for five games this season.
Snow Patrol
Phil Snow’s defense, which local radio stations throughout his various collegiate stops have allegedly tried and failed to dub “Snow Patrol” in honor of the Northern Irish-Scottish rock band, has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2021 season. A year after Carolina used it’s entire draft on the defensive side of the ball, the unit is eighth in DVOA, has the fourth-highest pressure percentage in the NFL, and is third in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
No member of Carolina’s front seven has stood out more than Shaq Thompson. The seventh-year linebacker is PFF’s second-ranked linebacker overall, but is second in coverage -- a very significant feat in a league where most linebackers find themselves chasing cars in coverage.
Gilmore Boys
Former Patriot Stephon Gilmore made his Panthers debut this past week against the Falcons, allowing two catches and coming down with the game-clinching interception. Gilmore is just one member of a rather stacked Carolina defensive backfield that is sixth in Football Outsiders’ passing VOA metric and has allowed the third-least net passing yards in the NFL.
Jeremy Chinn was the consensus runner-up to Chase Young for defensive rookie of the year last season and veteran AJ Bouye’s play has yet to slip. Eighth overall pick Jaycee Horn went down with three broken bones in his foot earlier in the season, but could rejoin the unit later in the season. Expect the unit to give the Patriots’ receivers trouble on Sunday.