The evolution of Rob Refsnyder
It was exactly one year ago the Mets hit their low point, living life 11 games under .500 after dropping a 10-3 decision to the Dodgers. They were already 16 games out of first-place in the National League East.
It was after that May 29 game the Mets got together and had the kind of "enough is enough" meeting that is always the last resort for big league clubs. This time it worked. From that point on, no team in baseball had a better record than New York, which ultimately 67-40 on the way to an appearance in the National League Championship Series.
That was an extreme.
But it also offered the example of how some difficult conversations - and actions - can still save a season.
The reality of the Red Sox is, in many ways, just as uncomfortable as that Mets team. Alex Cora's club has lost five straight, sit four games under .500, are 9 1/2 games in back of the first-place Yankees and are 4 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
According to Fangraphs, the Sox' chances of making the postseason sit at 18.3 percent, which is lower than all but four clubs in the American League.
The good news is that the Red Sox have evidence that fortunes can be altered thanks to a June resurgence, even beyond the Mets' remarkable 2024 run. At this time last season, the Sox' playoff odds were actually worse than they are now, residing at 13.9 percent. By July 15, they had crept up to 51.8 percent, significantly better than a team that ultimately made it to the divisional round of the AL postseason, Kansas City (32.6 percent).
So, what lessons can be learned? Start with players actually playing better. On June 1 of last season, the Red Sox lineup consisted of Dominic Smith playing first base, Enmanuel Valdez was the DH, Vaughn Grissom started at second base with Connor Wong coming in to play the spot, and Ceddanne Rafaela (CF) and David Hamilton (SS) rounding out the batting order.
The point is that as thinned out as the roster might seem, it wasn't all that different than a year ago. The biggest difference is that the Red Sox were settling into who they were. Right now, it doesn't feel like this team had a concept of its true existence.
That's the biggest challenge for the Red Sox, finding out who they can be as soon as possible.
The notion that the front office might lean on - that the Red Sox' plus-12 run differential suggests they have simply been unlucky - is a dangerous game to play. For instance, take away that 14-run, pitching-position-player-induced win over the Orioles and they would be in the negative column.
Coming back to the lesson learned from the Mets, it is time for tough decisions.
There are no perfect answers, but the most imperfect of them is not realizing changes need to be made. Rafaela may be the best defensive centerfielder in the game, but what is best for THIS team right now isn't having him block the promotion of Roman Anthony.
Rafaela best value is moving him into the infield, to play both second base and shortstop while allowing the Red Sox to finally introduce Anthony to the majors.
Kristian Campbell is going to be a very good major leaguer, but what is best for him and the team - particularly since the club is intent on playing him at first base - is to send him back to Triple-A. While the Red Sox keep leaning on the narrative of nurturing Anthony to the point of getting the best version of him upon arriving in the bigs, they have turned a blind-eye toward what would be best for Campbell.
It's all well and good that they feel comfortable enough to play Campbell at first base, but is that dynamic even currently worth it considering the player in question has the worst May OPS (.335) of any player in baseball.
Then there the ultimate difficult conversation: Rafael Devers.
The image of Devers staring blankly out at the field following Wednesday's loss offered the notion that the Red Sox' best hitter was flummoxed by his team's current existence. In a perfect world, those moments of reflection finally made him realize how impactful a change in his own approach would be.
Cora flatly said Devers at third base was not a consideration, with the team dug in on Marcelo Mayer playing there until Alex Bregman's return. He did, however, leave the door slightly ajar when it came to conversations about Devers working out at first base. Now, we need to hear from the player.
Maybe Devers wouldn't be any good at first. That's a possibility, although if he wants to play in the field going forward its a position he might want to start embracing. But the mere image of Devers going out and doing what Campbell has been doing - spending pregame working out with a first baseman's glove - would send the kind of message that undoubtedly would allow for the kind of step forward this team is starved for.
Masa Yoshida. Rob Refnsyder. Anthony. They would all be immediate options to slide into the DH role if Devers did embrace putting on a mitt once again, changing the dynamic of a lineup that is starved for more punch.
There is more. The April mindset for starters - when they managed the second-most innings of any group in MLB - has to return. Late-inning relief options beyond Aroldis Chapman, Justin Slaten and Justin Wilson need to consistently emerge. And patience regarding the kind of bad defense, baserunning miscues and mental errors we saw Wednesday needs to dissipate.
Tough times. Tough decisions. Too bad.