Back in April, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the Red Sox and Rafael Devers were at least $100 million apart in extension talks. Based on the player and contract the team reportedly identified as a comparable, it’s not hard to see why.
Citing a major league source, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported Monday night that the Red Sox saw Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as “a basis for discussions.”
Is history repeating itself with Bogaerts, Devers?
Along with many others, WEEI’s Lou Merloni believes those kinds of numbers aren’t even in the ballpark of what it will take to get a deal done, writing on Twitter that it would take $100 million more.
Now, it’s worth noting that comparing Devers and Olson isn’t THAT insane. If you haven’t paid attention to Olson because he spent so many years in Oakland, 1) that’s understandable, and 2) he’s really good.
Both broke into the majors in 2017, but Olson was further along in his development given that he’s two and a half years older. So, we’re not going to start the statistical comparison there. Let’s begin with 2019, when Devers really started to develop into the star he is now.
Since then, Devers has hit .297/.355/.549 for a .904 OPS with 103 home runs, 326 RBIs, 324 runs and 997 total bases in 455 games and 1,991 plate appearances. Olson has hit .256/.351/.515 for an .865 OPS with 106 home runs, 304 RBIs, 246 runs and 835 total bases in 437 games and 1,880 plate appearances.
According to Baseball-Reference, their total WAR during that time is 13.8 for Devers, 13.6 for Olson. While Devers has the edge offensively, Olson makes up ground as a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, compared with Devers’ generally below-average defense at third base.
According to Speier, the Red Sox believed the cross-position comparison was fair given the likelihood that Devers eventually moves to first base or designated hitter.
All that said, there are a few points to emphasize here. One is that Olson is widely seen as a very good value. Just because he signed for $21 million per year doesn’t mean other sluggers of that caliber are going to. No one in their right mind thinks Devers’ average annual value is going to be that low.
Another, which we mentioned earlier, is that Devers is two and a half years younger. That means his next contract is going to cover more years of his prime than Olson’s is.
Lastly, you can’t ignore the fact that Devers has succeeded in a higher-pressure environment (no one would compare playing in Oakland to playing in Boston), including in the playoffs. Devers has a .955 OPS in 26 career playoff games and helped the Red Sox win a World Series in 2018. Olson has faltered in October, with a .690 OPS in nine career playoff games.
So yeah, Devers is going to cost more than Olson, and probably a lot more. The Red Sox front office would have to be naïve to think otherwise, no matter what numbers they can pull up.
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