Nathan Eovaldi has never received a single Cy Young vote across his first nine Major League seasons. That could and probably should change this year.
With three, possibly four starts left in the regular season, the 31-year-old Red Sox righty is firmly among the small group of American League pitchers who deserve to at least receive some votes. A strong finish to the year could even put Eovaldi in the conversation for some first-place votes.
Before we go any further, let’s clarify what “receiving votes” even means. The Cy Young Award, given annually to the best pitcher in each league, is voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Each writer who has a vote votes for five pitchers, ranked one through five. So, saying Eovaldi deserves to receive votes means he deserves to be in some, or a lot of, writers’ top five.
Eovaldi has been about as reliable and consistent as any pitcher in the AL this season. He’s been as close to a “workhorse” as you get in today’s world of five-inning starts, tying for the AL lead in starts (28) and tying for second in innings pitched (163.2).
That alone is an impressive enough accomplishment for Eovaldi, who has struggled with injuries and consistency throughout his career. He has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and missed significant time due to two other “loose body” elbow injuries, most recently in 2019. That 2019 season ended with him in the bullpen holding an ugly 5.99 ERA and had many ready to declare the four-year contract he had signed before the season to be a major mistake.
Eovaldi bounced back with a solid 2020 season on an otherwise horrible Red Sox team, though, and has now followed up with easily the best season of his career, one that includes his first career All-Star appearance.
Staying healthy and taking the mound every five days isn’t what gets you in the Cy Young discussion, though. You have to be very good during those innings, and Eovaldi has been.
Eovaldi’s surface-level statline is good, but may not scream “Cy Young candidate.” He has a 10-8 record, and his 3.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings) are both tied for sixth in the AL.
But dig a little deeper and Eovaldi’s case starts to look stronger. Fangraphs has Eovaldi second among AL pitchers in WAR (wins above replacement) at 4.9, behind only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (5.1). Baseball Reference, which uses a different formula, has Eovaldi third at 4.8, behind Cole (5.5) and Toronto’s Robbie Ray (6.7). Point is, both have him as one of the three most valuable pitchers in the league.
Eovaldi ranks third in the AL in ERA+ (which adjusts for factors like ballparks and opponents) behind Ray and Cole, and second in fielding-independent pitching (or FIP, which measures a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the defense behind him) behind only Cole.
The difference between Eovaldi’s FIP and ERA, combined with a .317 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), suggest that Eovaldi has been hurt by some bad luck and poor defense on balls put in play, which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who has watched the Red Sox play defense this season.
Eovaldi has done a terrific job limiting damage in areas that are more in his control. His 1.65 walks per nine innings are the fewest in the AL, as are his 0.77 home runs allowed per nine innings. His 9.40 strikeouts per nine aren’t quite elite, but are still good for eighth among qualified pitchers. Combined with the low walk rate, it gives him a 5.70 strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks second behind Cole.
Eovaldi has also stepped up lately as the Red Sox battle for their playoff lives. Since back-to-back tough starts on July 31 and Aug. 6, Eovaldi has been stellar over his last six outings, posting a 1.91 ERA across 37.2 innings. The Red Sox have gone 5-1 in those starts.
Most recently, Eovaldi was dominant Wednesday night against the Rays, tossing seven shutout innings while giving up three hits and two walks and striking out eight. He ended up with a no-decision as Hunter Renfroe’s heroics would come after he left the game.
It was exactly what the Red Sox needed coming on the heels of three straight losses and three straight games in which a Boston starter (including both Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez) failed to get out of the fourth inning.
Eovaldi is probably behind both Cole and Ray in the Cy Young pecking order right now, but after that he has as good a case as anyone. The White Sox’ Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon have both been very good this season, but both have also missed a bunch of starts, which hurts them compared to someone like Eovaldi who has made all his starts.
Is the AL field a bit weaker than usual? Yeah, probably. The National League field certainly looks stronger with the likes of Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Brandon Woodruff, Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman. But that's not Eovaldi's fault. If he's one of the best in his league, he's one of the best in his league.
Barring a disaster over these next few weeks, Eovaldi should have a place on a lot of voters’ ballots. And if he finishes strong, he could end up closer to one than five.
All stats via Baseball Reference, Fangraphs or MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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