Talking trade deadline with Arizona GM Mike Hazen
Reactions. Overreactions. Patience. Take your pick. The Red Sox have lost their first two coming out of the All-Star break after winning 10 in a row, and their followers' emotions are back to being all over the place.
After being outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series against the best team in baseball, the Cubs, the urge to not make too big of a deal out of the defeats at Wrigley Field is a difficult one to fend off. There have been too many tales of woe throughout the first 3 1/2 months. Benefit of the doubt hasn't quite been tattooed on this team.
This is what we do know:
- The Red Sox currently own a Wild Card spot, living life 1/2 game up on the Rays, 2 1/2 over the Rangers and four ahead of the Angels. They reside a game behind Seattle and two in back of the Yankees.
- It's not going to get any easier, with one more against the Cubs before three at Philadelphia and then a series vs. the Dodgers. In case you weren't paying attention, those are the three division leaders in the National League.
- The Red Sox are currently entrenched in the "buyers" lane of the trade deadline, still on the lookout for a top-to-middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, reliever, and possible first baseman.
- They are 53-47. If that sounds familiar, it should because it's the same record the Red Sox possessed after 100 games as the previous two seasons.
So, with this remarkably identical record coming around once again, it should allow for the Sox to try and learn from what went right, what went wrong, and how life can be different in the final 62 games. (Because, in case you forget, the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs in either the 2023 or 2024 seasons.)
Two years ago, the Red Sox hit the 100-game mark feeling pretty good about themselves, having gone 12-5 in July while riding an offense that had five hitters managing an OPS of .972 for the month. In fact, no team in baseball - except for the Dodgers - was on more of an offensive roll than the Sox at that time.
There were issues. For starters, the Red Sox were still playing catch-up in the Wild Card standings. There was also a serious void of reliable starting pitching, with the collection of James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and openers starting to take a turn for the worse.
It was a team that desperately needed a deadline push from the front office. Instead, all that came their way was Luis Urias and the now-infamous. "Understanding that we're underdogs this year right now, where we are in the playoff odds ..." comment from then-Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom.
A 1 1/2-game deficit in the Wild Card standings on Aug. 1 quickly became something much more uneasy thanks to a sweep at the hands of the team directly in front of them, the Blue Jays.
Lesson learned: Trade deadline inactivity can turn a precarious situation into something more dire. Reading the room was everything at that point, and the front office did a poor job of doing just that.
Last season, the lesson should have been obvious. It was a team feeling good about itself going into the All-Star break, but willing to get out ahead of what was a looming problem - the bullpen.
The Red Sox's 100th game would be their fourth straight defeat, having been swept by the Dodgers to begin their post-All-Star break stretch. In those first two games at Dodger Stadium, the Sox carried a lead into the eighth inning. But without the services of Justin Slaten and Chris Martin, Alex Cora's team was caught short. It was an issue in that fourth straight defeat, when the Sox squandered a two-run lead in the 10th inning against the lowly Rockies.
From that first game until the trade deadline, the Red Sox went 3-8 with their bullpen allowing its opponents a .330 batting average and .989 OPS while totaling a 7.78 ERA.
Even if the Red Sox's ultimate trade deadline relief pitching acquisitions - Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims - worked out to the level of Hansel Robles and Austin Davis three years before (which they didn't), the inability to stay out of that late-July hole was the season's tipping point.
Lesson learned: If the Red Sox are truly already dug in on buying, then they should make sure not to wait until the last minute to attempt to fix what ails them. And when that time comes, make sure there is no room for interpretation when it comes to the level of help that is coming their way.
According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox stand with a 44.3 percent chance of making the postseason, significantly better than the previous two 53-47 landing spots. Despite the previous two games, it's not a bad spot. And there is evidence about a willingness to be proactive. (See, Rafael Devers.)
Now it's up to them to let history be their guide.