Jarren Duran was really good in 2020. But what exactly does that mean for 2021?
This is the question the Red Sox are faced with when attempting to decipher just how ready Duran might be. The 24-year-old replacing Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field isn’t exactly a turn-key proposition.
This was the vibe offered by Chaim Bloom Wednesday.
“Looking at Jarren in particular, it’s a tough one in a good way, because he had a tremendous 2020,” said the Red Sox’ Chief Baseball Officer. “He made strides hitting wise and physically, didn’t lose any of his speed. He just had a really good year. I think for all players who didn’t play at the major league level, and even for some of those who did – because we had a shorter season – it’s tougher to feel confident in exactly what you know about them. He came into the year as someone who had spent some time in Double-A, but not with particularly distinguished performance, and then you see him put the year together that he had, and we have to try to figure out what that all means. So I think there’s a lot of different ways to read it. Given what the summer was, both in times of how much time we had with the guys, which was not very much, and the quality of what we were able to do with them, which in certain ways was great but was also very different from a normal season, I tend to think we should be cautious about putting too much weight on it. But I think there’s a lot of different ways you could reasonably look at this.”
And that’s the problem.
Duran hit as well as anyone in the Red Sox’ alternate site, but still — according to some scouts — has a ways to go before being considered an above-average centerfielder.
And while Duran’s competition was oftentimes pitchers with major league experience, the ups and downs that come with a regular minor-league Triple-A season were never thrown his way. It’s a reality Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore recently highlighted on the Bradfo Sho podcast.
“The outside competition. The toughness is required to get through an a minor-league season and an entire major-league season,” Moore said. “We’re certainly hopeful. We feel good about our current evaluations. But they’re incomplete. They just are. They aren’t what we’re accustomed to. I do believe the data and all the technology we have today helps us in that process. It’s probably more important to this process than at any other time in the history of the game, certainly since the onset of the technology. I think it kind of validates judgement and puts us more in a comfort level and allows us to compare it to past measurement and data. But again they’re incomplete. Baseball, as we all know, about commitment and a relentless focus on the day to day competition. The entire season. And we simply did not have that opportunity. We’re better than we would have been if we wouldn’t have played, but in the same sense I think it’s incomplete.”
Worcester Red Sox manager Billy McMillon, who oversaw Duran's workouts during the two-month exercise at McCoy Stadium, also offers a sense of caution when putting players like Duran at the big-league level.
“I think what the organization should do or would do is think about where we were initially thinking about starting those guys last year and give an honest account on how they developed, what they got better at and see if that’s worthy of a jump at another level,” McMillon explained. “For instance, (Triston) Casas likely was going to start at Salem this year so with the month at the alternate site is that enough to warrant a skip of High A? I don’t know if we can make that determination Oct. 2. But I think what he did do and guys like that it reinforced that these guys have an idea and they are trending in the right direction. I don’t know if I would want to have a guy jump too many levels because if he is a guy we think he is than maybe he starts at the level we thought he would last year and it’s a brief stay there before he gets promoted.
“Duran is going to be an interesting one because he had such a wonderful camp and he did have some time in Double-A last year, I’m not quite sure where we might start him. But I think there is still some development that needs to take place and as he continues to grow he’s guy who has a tremendous amount of upside.
“I think the player development, the coordinators, (farm director) Ben Crockett, I think we’re all going to have some serious discussions and try and find that balance between not putting too much on the players’ plate but giving them a good enough challenge where they can reach their potentials.”
The good news is that Duran seems to be a viable piece of the Red Sox' future, carrying a .322 career batting average in the minor leagues while now developing power that produced eight homers at the alternate site.
But the Red Sox need a full-time centerfielder for 2022 and as we sit here right now -- with the uncertainty of Duran -- that might not be something they necessarily possess.
“I think we have guys on this club who are capable of playing center field, but I would certainly like to be in as strong a defensive position as you can," Bloom added. "We know we play in a ballpark where you basically have two center fields here at Fenway Park, so you want to be mindful of that. We can’t be too rigid and miss good opportunities, but we certainly would like to have as strong a defensive outfield as possible, and lot of that obviously is contingent on having multiple guys who can play center field."