Deciphering the Rafael Devers conundrum
BALTIMORE - The comment from Trayce Thompson midway through the Red Sox spring training was notable.
"This is the most sense of urgency group I've been with," said the veteran outfielder.
The message was clear: These Red Sox understood the importance of getting off to a good start and were attempting to use each and every day in Fort Myers to make sure they had that proper springboard.
And, through the first series of the season, much of the strategy took root. The bullpen didn't give up a single run in its 12 innings. The starting pitching wasn't as good, but it kept the Sox hanging around in all four games against the Rangers. And the team's instincts to run out and rely on Kristian Campbell and Wilyer Abreu were keen, with those two players carrying Alex Cora's team's offense.
And the defense was about as good as anyone could hope for, not making a single error throughout the four games.
But, ultimately, a few very important pieces of the puzzle didn't fit. And that's why the Red Sox are starting their series in Camden Yards Monday sitting at 1-3.
So, what happened?
The main focus is rightfully falling on Rafael Devers, who has gotten off to a historically bad start. Going 0-for-16 with 12 strikeouts is about as bad as you can get. But he wasn't alone in his struggles, with cleanup hitter Triston Casas going 1-for-16 and No. 3 hitter Alex Bregman leaving 11 runners on base.
In all, the Red Sox' hitters went 6-for-41 with runners in scoring position, striking out 16 times (the most of any MLB team facing that scenario).
When it came to Bregman and Casas, the struggles were not a familiar sight for those watching both throughout spring training's final couple of weeks. The duo had presented the best version of themselves for the majority of the Grapefruit League's homestretch. That image seemingly disappeared once the plane touched down in Texas.
That brings us to Devers.
There was definitely a leap of faith that needed to be taken when it came to identifying how Devers was going to perform. For whatever reason, the newly-minted designated hitter didn't want to prioritize playing in actual Grapefruit League games despite openly bemoaning a lack of timing.
Devers played in five spring training games - March 15, 17, 19, 21 and 23 - choosing to continue to take swings against the Trajekt pitching machine and on the backfields. The strategy clearly was the wrong one.
Devers has swung and missed on 67.4 percent of his swings, far and away the worst percentage in baseball through this first weekend of games. He has whiffed 31 times, 13 more than the player with the second-most swings and misses (Teoscar Hernandez).
According to Baseball Savant, Devers' bat speed has dropped below MLB average (70.3 mph) after being above-average throughout his entire career (73.5 mph in 2023 and 72.5 mph last season).
Of his 12 strikeouts, seven have been finished off with fastballs, seeing the pitch 68.5 percent of the time. His swings on heaters have resulted in whiffs at a rate of 75 percent.
The ramp up to entrenching Devers into this new world as full-time DH - which, most recently, had Cora declaring the former starting third baseman would not be playing the field - has proven to be the biggest miss of them all.
The good news? Devers is going to a ballpark he typically thrives in, having hit 13 home runs while carrying an .862 OPS in 56 games at Camden Yards.
One thing we do know: That urgency Thompson spoke of ... it hasn't gone anywhere.