You’ve got to love how after every NFL Draft teams hold their press conferences (or Zoom calls) and tell us how despite the scrutiny their picks face, the important thing right now is that their team got better.
It’s not like any team could get worse at the draft. It isn’t possible. Maybe someday the NFL will create a level of punishment where instead of a team being penalized a pick, another team gets to choose a player off the offending team’s roster. Then it would mean something for teams to point out how they got better.
Until then, despite our dutiful efforts in the media to transcribe those “we got better” quotes, they mean nothing. “Getting better” is a given.
It’s nonetheless a big event, and it’s also big for fantasy players. The fantasy dynasty crowd will watch each team’s draft carefully next weekend. Depth charts will be scrambled. Teams will begin to phase out veterans, players a week in advance we can’t identify. Sure, some reads are more likely than others – are the Baltimore Ravens really going to sit tight at wide receiver, e.g. – but a lot of what will happen a week from now is hard to predict.
Certain veterans need to watch out for rookies drafted to take their jobs.
Here are five teams who could realistically shake things up at the skill positions, to some degree, in the draft:
Jacksonville Jaguars:
As it stands now, the Jags are one of three teams with five picks in the Top-100 (Miami Dolphins, New York Jets). No. 1 overall will be Trevor Lawrence, arguably the finest college quarterback prospect ever.
The Jaguars are intriguing at the skill positions, with three players in particular that have been, and/or should be, valuable assets. Running back James Robinson was a stud in 2020, wide receiver D.J. Chark made a big impact in 2019, and wide receiver Laviska Shenault – like Robinson, a rookie last year – has a varied skill set. They also added veteran receiver Marvin Jones in free agency.
But Jacksonville is far from all set, and with so many good picks it shouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a running back, receiver or both by as early as the end of Round 3.
Robinson is really the one here. If the Jags don’t pick a running back in, say, the first half of the draft, Robinson is set up to be a bell cow again in 2021. If they do, however, “watch out”. Robinson wasn’t drafted, and NFL teams have a history of looking down on a player’s production if that player wasn’t picked.
Personally, I’ve been unloading Robinson in my dynasty leagues. Too many years of watching Fred Jackson play great for the Buffalo Bills only to have the front office repeatedly draft guys to replace him, maybe.
Miami Dolphins:
Myles Gaskin did a fine job in about half a season’s work for the Dolphins in 2020. There are parallels here to the Jacksonville situation, as Gaskin was a lowly seventh round pick by Miami in 2019. Not much invested. And, like the Jaguars, the Dolphins are loaded with picks.
I don’t know if Jacksonville will draft a significant running back, but I expect Miami to do so. That likely would leave Gaskin as a backup with hardly any fantasy value.
My guess is that with the sixth overall pick, the Dolphins select standout wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase of LSU. They signed Will Fuller away from the Houston Texans, and they still carry DeVante Parker. Obviously an addition of Chase would mitigate the values of Fuller and Parker, to some extent.
I’ve been in several best-ball drafts already this year. Fuller tends to go in Rounds 8 or 9, and Parker not until 13. Add Chase, and Fuller goes down slightly, Parker significantly.
The key for any of them, including Chase, is whether Tua Tagovailoa can post good numbers. If not, that’s a lot of receiver talent slated to be sources of fantasy frustration.
Atlanta Falcons:
The Falcons were 4-12 in 2020. A dreadful record, but nonetheless a team with tremendous fantasy value.
Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones – are we to the point where is that the right order? – were each over 85 yards per-game last year, and lesser-known Russell Gage posted an impressive 72 targets. This team has loved to throw the ball, and, to make things better, were losing a lot.
Now what?
Atlanta is a key team in this draft. They could choose Matt Ryan’s replacement at No. 4 overall, leaving us to wonder whether Ridley and Jones can replicate their prior monster seasons. They could instead go with super-prospect Kyle Pitts at tight end, which also could have a negative effect on the other receivers. Or they could draft defense, perhaps by trading down. As someone perennially invested heavily in Ridley and Jones, this is what I hope they do.
The Falcons are a tough call. My guess is they don’t draft a quarterback, but I don’t feel strongly. While adding Pitts could, again, cut into the others’ production, that doesn’t have to be significant – or happen at all.
I’m holding onto Jones, whose appeal has slipped slightly in fantasy after an injury-plagued season, and I’m all in on Ridley.
Los Angeles Chargers:
I am very curious about these guys. New coaches are there, including offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Lombardi was the New Orleans Saints’ quarterbacks coach the last five years, and before that led a Detroit Lions offense that was pretty prolific through the air (the biggest beneficiaries being Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate).
Wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler are both great players. If the Chargers do anything at the skill positions in this draft, I doubt it would do much to compromise Allen’s normal levels of production.
On Ekeler, however, I’m not as sure.
In the fantasy community I feel that I’m a little bit on my own with this opinion, that the Chargers could prefer Ekeler to play more of a complimentary role in their offense. Justin Herbert was off the charts as a rookie getting the ball downfield. They probably do add a receiver, or two. Last year, they tried Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson as early-down runners, and neither shined.
My guess would be they add a running back in this draft – and if it’s early enough, it’ll be someone they’ll plan on using.
Again, I think Ekeler is a stud. It should be noted that the Chargers paid him before last season; they’ve made an investment. In my worst-case scenario, Ekeler still would have real value in fantasy, but not at the level he’s drafted at now (usually the middle of Round 2).
Philadelphia Eagles:
The original idea of this column was to pick out a few teams with established veterans at the skill positions who are at risk of being upended in this draft. The Eagles are not quite a fit, however. Because – especially at receiver – who exactly would those veterans be?
Jalen Reagor got hurt to start his rookie year in 2020 and never really took flight. Still, an investment and a talent. Philly turned to Travis Fulgham, a former sixth round pick by Detroit, and he was serviceable. Greg Ward, Quez Watkins, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside… the Eagles need a receiver or two.
I’m mostly just curious about what this offense will amount to. I’m excited to see Jalen Hurts play as a starter (even though Wednesday the Eagles wouldn’t pronounce their commitment to him as such). Tight end Dallas Goedert is my favorite skill guy on this roster. Zach Ertz is still there, and thus I won’t omit his name. Miles Sanders enters Season 3 as the No. 1 running back.
It’ll all revolve around Hurts and to what extent their receiving options are valuable at all. If they invest a high pick in a receiver – Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall Jr. at pick 37, to name names – there’s potential for a sneaky nice fantasy opportunity. Hurts won’t get credit for passing production entering the season, but if he’s good a new receiver could quickly vault to the top of the depth chart.
I’ll be rooting for it.