The 6-2 Buffalo Bills face the 6-1 Seattle Seahawks in a matchup of division leaders on Sunday at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park.
Here are my keys to the game, plus notes and stats:
1.) Big play battle
The Seahawks offense has had six pass plays of 40 or more yards this season. That’s tied for second in the entire National Football League.
Meanwhile, the Bills defense has given up only one pass play of 40 or more yards, which was a Jamison Crowder’s catch-and-run touchdown in Week 1. That’s tied for first in the NFL.
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is fourth in the league averaging 8.4 yards per-attempt, and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is second in the league averaging 18.89 per-reception.
Since Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have been in charge of the Bills defense their first year together in 2017, they’ve consistently been one of, if not the best team in the league in not allowing long pass plays. Seattle will want to push the ball down the field and make those plays, and they’re very good at that. The Bills will want to limit them and have been good at doing that.
Something’s gotta give, and whichever does will go a long way towards winning.
2.) Back on track
The Bills offense was one of the best in the league through the first quarter of the season. They were averaging over 30 points per-game, but they’ve averaged less than 19 points per-game over their last four.
Sunday is a day they need to get back on track and score like they were through those first four games, for a couple reasons. First, Seattle is leading the league, averaging a whopping 34.3 points per-game, so the Bills will need to do their best to keep pace. Second, the Seahawks defense has allowed 28.4 points per-game, ninth most in the league, and they’re allowing over 358 yards passing and close to 460 total yards per-game, both dead last in the league.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is completing 67.1% of his passes. The Seahawks defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68%, which is ninth-highest in the NFL. Allen and the Bills will have their chances. They need to make the most of them.
3.) Touchdowns not field goals
The Seahawks offense is No. 1 in the NFL, scoring on an incredible 88% of their trips to the red zone. The Bills are 13th at 62.50%.
Strangely, in their six games against teams other than the lowly New York Jets, the Bills are over 89% scoring touchdowns in the redzone, but only 3-for-13 against the Jets, including when they trotted rookie kicker Tyler Bass out eight different times to attempt a field goal two weeks ago.
That can’t happen against the Seahawks. The Bills need to convert those trips into touchdowns, possibly even having to go for it on fourth downs.
Defensively, the Bills are slightly better than the Seahawks in the redzone, allowing the exact same 62.5% they’ve converted on, which is tied for 16th in the NFL. Seattle is allowing 69.23%, tied for 23rd overall.
NOTES AND STATS:
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