Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - It’s that wonderful time of year for college basketball fans with tip off of the NCAA tournament beginning Tuesday and Wednesday with the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
Over the next month, we will go back through each weekend and dissect the fallout as we get closer to the National Championship set to take place this year in Arizona on April 8 at State Farm Stadium, home of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals.
With that, let's go through some of the key matchups in the Round of 64, and also who will be the potential Cinderella’s in each region. And, of course, we'll predict the winners of each region:
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EAST:
Favorite matchup: No. 8 - Florida Atlantic University vs. No. 9 - Northwestern University
Florida Atlantic is an interesting 8-seed, as they have big wins over Texas A&M and Arizona, but also have loses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast and a below .500 Temple team in the American Conference semifinals.
It leaves one wondering if this is truly the same team that made the Final Four last year, even with much of the starting lineup returning.
On the other side is Northwestern, who has now become a staple in the Tournament with Chris Collins at the helm of the program.
They are also becoming a regular on the 8-9 line, having been there in their previous two tournaments (2017, 2023), which has also seen them win, at least, one game.
Both teams have great guard play with Northwestern’s Boo Buie and Florida Atlantic’s Johnell Davis, and have the ability to make a deep run. However, they both have the unfortunate circumstance of being in the same region as UConn.
Cinderella: No. 10 - Drake University
Coming out of the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake has the talent and has been battle tested coming into March.
While they do have a potential matchup with Iowa State in Round 2, Drake could make a deep run into the second weekend and beyond.
At the helm is Darian DeVries, who has the Bulldogs in their second-straight tournament thanks to a second-straight Missouri Valley Tournament title. In his six years on the job, the Bulldogs have yet to have a season under 20 wins.
On the floor, Drake has four double-digit scorers, led by DeVries’ son, Tucker, who averaged 21.8 points per-game (PPG) with 36.4% from three-point range, and has won back-to-back Missouri Valley Player of the Year awards.
Drake opens the tournament against No. 7 Washington State in Omaha on Thursday. Unlike Drake, the Cougars do it more by committee and have been a surprise out West.
However, Drake comes in after building a very good mid-major program, and has legit star power balanced out with good old fashioned experience.
Region winner: No. 1 - University of Connecticut
Was it going to be anyone else?
UConn won the National Title last year, and it isn’t even an argument how much better they are this year. Oh yeah, they also come in as the No. 1 seed of the entire tournament.
Five players scoring in double digits, a balanced rotation that sees depth at all five positions, and a coach in Dan Hurley who has firmly established himself as one of the best in the nation.
That all equates to the Huskies being the likely favorite to win the tournament this year, becoming the first team since the 2006 and 2007 Florida Gators to do so.
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WEST:
Favorite matchup: No. 12 - Grand Canyon University vs. No. 5 - Saint Mary's College of California
Grand Canyon has truly established itself as a power out of the Western Athletic Conference, and now just need a deep tournament run to establish themselves as a mid-major power across the country.
Led by, maybe, the best story in college basketball, Tyon Grant-Foster, who had to work his way back after suffering a cardiac arrest back in 2021 at DePaul. In addition, head coach Bryce Drew has now taken GCU to three NCAA Tournaments.
The Antelopes are primed and ready to announce themselves to the nation.
GCU gets maybe the best draw of the 5-seeds they could hope for, as Saint Mary’s, for as great as they have been as the bridesmaid to Gonzaga, have not made it to, at least, the Sweet 16 since 2010, and seemingly grabbed hold of the West Coast Conference due to a down year from the Bulldogs.
This matchup’s winner also zeros-in to potentially take on No. 4 Alabama, who has serious problems on defense. Both Grand Canyon and Saint Mary’s could exploit that.
Cinderella: No. 12 - Grand Canyon University
You may have wondered why I didn’t dive into GCU, and this is why.
Not only do they have an almost 20 PPG scorer in Grant-Foster, they also have two other double-digit scorers in 6-foot-7 forward Gabe McGlothan, who also shoots 42.1% from three-point range, and point guard Ray Harrison, who has taken a step back in scoring with the emergence of Grant-Foster but still adds in 13.4 PPG and almost four assists.
This is also a deep roster, which has both athleticism and size that looks more like a team such as Gonzaga, and not other teams GCU plays against in the WAC.
If GCU can get past Saint Mary’s, they have another favorable matchup with Alabama or another Cinderella hopeful in Charleston, who should definitely cause the Crimson Tide to sweat more than they’d like to.
Region winner: No. 2 - University of Arizona
I don’t know if this could work out better for Arizona than this.
The Wildcats get a great story in Long Beach State, who was, arguably, running off the adrenaline of playing for a coach already fired in the Big West Tournament.
They follow that up with a matchup between the winner of No. 7 Dayton and No. 10 Nevada, a great matchup in its own right. Dayton had a short run in the A-10 tournament, while Nevada finished second in the Mountain West but fell immediately in the conference tournament against Colorado State.
If everything goes correctly, Arizona’s Caleb Love (18.7 PPG, 4.9 rebound and 3.4 assists) will get a shot at his former team in North Carolina. Give me head coach Tommy Lloyd to firmly establish himself in Year 3 at Arizona and make the team's first Final Four since 2001.
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MIDWEST:
Favorite matchup: No. 13 - Samford University vs. No. 4 - University of Kansas
For me, this comes down to one simple thing: Is Kansas any good/are they healthy?
With the likes of Hunter Dickerson down, coupled with the fact this is the first time head coach Bill Self has come into the tournament with 10 losses, Samford can smell blood in the water.
Making their first NCAA tournament since 2000, Samford is in the beautiful spot of not having anything to lose. However, they are talented enough to leave the first round as the main bracket buster. Four double-digit scorers, including three players who shoot over 40% from three-point range.
If Kansas isn’t completely locked-in for this tournament, they will lose.
Cinderella: No. 12 - McNeese State University
The Will Wade factor, one of the single biggest one-season turnarounds ever or a favorable first-round matchup with a blue blood.
Any one of those three, or any combination is why I like McNeese State to go far this year.
Wade built a juggernaut at LSU before NCAA violations saw him have to rebuild his image at a mid-major, and boy has he. 30-3, four double-digit scores and three of those players shooting over 40% from three-point range seems them as the perfect Cinderella type.
Gonzaga has been playing much better as of late, but the little giant of McNeese State has been building all year, and the Zags may have run into a wagon in Round 1.
Region winner: No. 3 - Creighton University
Finished second in the Big East, led by three players who could each be a No. 1 on most other tournament teams, and a favorable bracket that see’s perennial disappointment Purdue as the 1-seed, a Tennessee team that had a brutal exit in the SEC tournament as the No. 2, and an aforementioned Kansas team as the 4-seed.
This could not be better for a veteran-led Creighton.
I would be lying if I said the Blue Jays were coming in perfect. They lost to Providence in the Big East quarterfinals, but it can’t all be chalk.
Creighton has more positives than negatives, compared to the seeds ahead of them in the Midwest region.
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SOUTH:
Favorite matchup: No. 12 - James Madison University vs. No. 5 - University of Wisconsin
James Madison had three losses this entire year, two of which were to Appalachian State.
The Dukes are led by guard/forward Terrence Edwards Jr. and head coach Mark Byington, and actually started the year off with an upset win over Big Ten and preseason No. 4 Michigan State. But this was easily the Dukes' best matchup, and MSU had an up-and-down season that sees them as a No. 9 seed in the West region.
To me, this is to see how real this James Madison team is. They can beat a Wisconsin team who got hot late, and was just a six-point loss to Illinois away from being the Big Ten tournament champions.
Both of these teams can make deep runs in this year's tournament, and you have to feel for both programs who likely groaned when they saw the other's name pop up on the bracket.
No one should be surprised if the winner of this matchup goes on to the second weekend, especially with the potential of facing Duke team in Round 2 who is still trying to find their footing under head coach John Scheyer.
Cinderella: No. 10 - Boise State University
This is not totally fair, as Boise State has to actually win to get into the 64-team field against Colorado. If they do, though, I like them to advance against No. 7 Florida, who will have to quickly learn how to live without center Micah Handlogten, who left the SEC Championship with a brutal lower-body injury.
In the Round of 32, they will likely get Marquette, who is also not 100% healthy with point guard Tyler Kolek missing the entire Big East tournament, and still being on a game-by-game basis with an oblique injury.
I can also see this because of the brutal conference play Boise State had. The Broncos are among six(!) Mountain West teams to get into the NCAA Tournament, more than the ACC, Pac-12 and Big East.
Boise State finished third in the conference, but did fall to the eventual champions, New Mexico, in the quarterfinals.
Region winner: No. 1 - University of Houston
Houston has arrived, and, outside of UConn, have been the most consistently dominant team in the country.
In Year 1 of being in the Big 12, the Cougars claimed the regular season title in a conference that put eight teams in the tournament.
Veteran guard play lead by L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead sees a Houston team that can run-and-gun with everyone, but is also a smothering group defensively. It has really made Houston a special team in this tournament.
Don’t look at the Big 12 Championship Game as an indictment on Houston. Iowa State is more than deserving of a No. 2 seed, and could even argue to be a No. 1.
Instead, look at the body of work that Kelvin Sampson has put together in his 10 years on the job. A Final Four in 2021, and making the Sweet 16 in every tournament held from 2019 to now, you have a team that knows how to win in March.
All they need now is a national title to solidify themselves amongst the blue bloods of the sport.
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National champions: Houston Cougars
UConn is absolutely an easy, and maybe even a correct pick to win it all this year, but there is a reason we haven’t seen a back-to-back winner since the early 2000’s.
Crazy stuff happens, and the best team doesn’t always win. However, a No. 1 seed often does, and I can see the Cougars taking an embarrassing loss to Iowa State and turning it into proving themselves right, and everyone else wrong.
Great veteran leadership, great coaching and a good South region with favorable matchups will see the Cougars right the wrongs of 1983 and 1984, and win the team's first national title in Arizona.
