We did it again with another outright! Justin Thomas +1800 last weekend was a great sweat, but he got it done. Let's see if we can keep this gambling hot streak going.
This week, we shift our sights onto PGA National for The Honda Classic. The course measures around 7,140 yards for a par 70, and was the third most difficult on TOUR last year. When it comes to the gambling odds, Daniel Berger comes in as the favorite to win it all at +1050.
The field is opposite of last week’s star filled event. Many of the bigger names will be missing out on this tournament. Per Rick Gehman’s model, Strokes Gained: Approach is one of the key metrics to look for when trying to profile guys for this weekend.
Betting on golf always seems to come down to the wire on Sundays, which is why I’ve become hooked. So let’s dig in and see if we can pick some winners.
As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data at RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Viewing Details
2021 Honda Classic
Dates: March 18-21
Course: PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Watch: GOLF/ NBC
Best Bets
Generally I mix in a couple of heavy hitters with some longshots, but this week I’m going a little riskier. This event is up for grabs, so why not? I looked for guys who have 35-1 odds or greater for my picks. My strategy with longshots this weekend: if any of them are in contention come Sunday, I will get an opportunity to reassess my positions and live bet to hedge a little with some of the other contenders.
Picks to win outright
Talor Gooch +3500
Loved what I saw from Gooch last weekend. He was in the mix late into Sunday, finishing T5. Who knows what would’ve happened if he could’ve gotten a couple more putts to fall?
Gooch has also made the cut two straight years here at PGA National. I like that because those fields were a lot tougher than this week’s.
When it comes to the metrics, last week he had better Strokes Gained: Approach numbers than winner Justin Thomas.
The RickRun Tournament Predictor also likes Gooch this week, as the model is predicting him to win 5 percent of the time (4th best). Usually guys that show up in the top-5 to win are in the mix come Sunday.
Berger is also dealing with a rib injury, so there is a chance that he isn’t at his best, which makes this bet even juicier.
Brendan Steele +4500
Steele is striking the ball really well and is trending upwards, as he has not missed a cut in 2021. He’s also played well here in the past. He finished T4 last year, T14 in 2016 and 2017, and T11 in 2015.
I always look for guys that have done well at a track as one of my factors. This year’s field is softer than in year’s past, so at 45-1, I like the number here.
Keegan Bradley +5000
Bradley fits the profile of golfers that have done well here since he is solid at Strokes Gained: Approach, where he ranks 7th. He’s second to only Russell Henley in this field.
He’s also 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. To win this event, you need to strike the ball well, which he also is doing well.
I went back and forth between him and Henley, but in a week where I am trying to take a little bit more risk, I’m going with the guy with longer odds.
Doug Ghim +6000
Ghim was fun to watch last weekend. His Twitter game is also fire! Yes, the moment got a little too big for him, but he was playing well late into Sunday. He also had a similar situation at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. My hope is that he can learn from those experiences and put it together this weekend against a lighter field.
Metrics wise, he is averaging 0.61 strokes gained per round this season, per the RickRun database. For a guy that is playing really good golf, 60-1 sounds good to me.
Byeong Hun An +7000
70-1 dart here, but I see a lot of value at this number. He generally plays well in Florida and has made his last three cuts at this event, including a T4 last year and a T5 in 2018. He also has solid Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green numbers and puts well on Bermuda Greens.
I also like how he was a good sport on Twitter about his blowup on Hole 17 last weekend. To win at golf, you have to be able to shake off moments like that quickly. Hopefully he can be in contention come Sunday.
Harold Varner III +8000
He’s made the cut here each of the last four years. Putting has been his weakness, but this is the event where that all is out the door. He ranks 30th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is one of the best at that metric in this field. At 80-1, he is definitely worth a sprinkle.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook