With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, our attention now turns to the end of the month and the trade deadline, with less parity than ever. As of Tuesday morning, five teams in the National League have a 90 percent chance or greater of making the postseason, per FanGraphs; the only real question is who wins the NL East.
The AL isn't much better: while there are six teams in the hunt for the two wild-card spots, FanGraphs only gives four of them (the Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees and A's) a fighting chance percentage-wise. It makes for a clear line between "buyer" and "seller" for most teams. So who is out there? From top-end starters to shutdown closers and big bats, here are the most notable names who could be on the move in the next 11 days:
1) Max Scherzer: The three-time Cy Young winner is in the final year of a seven-year, $191 million deal, and with free agency looming the 44-49 Nationals are likely to try and extract something for the 36-year-old. Don't let the age fool you - his numbers are still excellent. In 18 starts this year he's 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 105 innings.
While he could have many suitors, complicating factors include a full no-trade clause that Scherzer would have to waive, and a reported desire to sign a contract extension with any potential teams upon a trade. While he'd be a perfect fit with the Dodgers, who have a gaping hole in the rotation with Trevor Bauer absent for the foreseeable future, the Astros appear to be going the hardest after the right-hander. Prediction: Astros
2) Craig Kimbrel: After disastrous 2019 and 2020 seasons, the closer is back among the game's elite in 2021 with absurd numbers. In 33.2 innings this year he's allowed a total of two earned runs (0.53 ERA), walking only 11 while striking out 58. He has a $16 million team option for next year (with only a $1 million buyout), making a potential return just a tad sweeter for the Cubs, who sit 9.5 games out of first in the NL Central and eight back in the wild-card. The most-rumored destination? A return to Boston, where Kimbrel was an All-Star from 2016-18 and won a World Series. While the Red Sox have an All-Star closer in Matt Barnes, they need another trusted bullpen piece. Prediction: Red Sox
3) Ketel Marte: It's been a horrific season in Arizona, and as a full rebuild looks like it's coming the D-Backs appear willing to trade one valuable piece in exchange for multiple valuable prospects. The 27-year-old Marte is hitting .370 with a .974 OPS in 37 games this year and is under reasonable team control through 2024 ($8.4 million in '22, $8 million in '23, $10 million in '24). Of course, that means the price is going to be high for the utility man, who can play second base or the outfield. Further complicating matters is a hamstring injury that's kept him out for a month. Given he'll require a return of multiple (top) prospects, it's an injury that will keep him in the desert. Prediction: No trade
4) Kris Bryant: There's a price that automatically comes with trading for Bryant - a supplemental first-round draft pick at the very least - but it's one worth paying. The third baseman returned to All-Star form this year, hitting 16 homers for the aforementioned struggling Cubs. Still only 29, the former MVP is due a qualifying offer this winter (hence the price tag), and a team like the Mets could afford such an offer and have the need for a right-handed bat in a run-deficient offense. Prediction: Mets
5) Trevor Story: The shortstop should be higher up on the list, but it appears the Rockies might not be up for a deal? All the signs are there for it: the 28-year-old Story is one of the best shortstops in baseball, is in the prime of his career, is a free agent this winter, and is toiling away on a Colorado team that's in a full rebuild. There's little reason to keep Story, who is likely to leave anyways. And although they have way too many right-handed hitters as is, he'd be a great fit in the Bronx. The Yankees are four games (and three teams) out of a postseason spot, but selling isn't in their DNA. A deal for Story could push Gleyber Torres to second, DJ LeMahieu can play third or first, and Rougned Odor can move to the bench as a pinch-hit specialist. Prediction: Yankees
6) Joey Gallo: Who many Yankee fans have been pining for is Gallo, a left-handed power bat. Sure he strikes out a ton (114 times in 288 at-bats) and his current .233 average is far and away his second-best ever for a season. But imagine him at Yankee Stadium with that short porch?
Well, keep imagining. While the last-place Rangers look to off-load the first baseman, it appears he could be headed west, where the San Diego Padres are "panting" for Gallo, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. What that means for Eric Hosmer at first remains to be seen. But as the Padres proved last year, they are willing to do whatever it takes to win now.