(WWJ) Hope, concern and cautious optimism. Those are words used by University of Michigan researchers when describing the economic outlook for Oakland County.
In its annual forecast of the Oakland County economy presented Thursday morning at the Suburban Collection Showplace in Novi, researchers said the county's economy has "downshifted" with rising unemployment and trade challenge, but there is hope for a gradual job recovery over the next three years.
Although job growth is forecast to be slower than the 2% annual growth experienced from 2010 to 2019, the county's strong fundamentals, such as a diverse job market and educational attainment, offer resilience, the U-M economists say.
"We expect job growth to remain subdued and uneven over the forecast horizon, with federal policy risks casting a long shadow," said Director Gabriel Ehrlich, who co-authored the forecast with Jacob Burton, Donald Grimes and Michael McWilliams.
The combined job gains for the construction and private health and social services sectors from 2025 to 2027 are projected to total 5,500 jobs. The finance and insurance industries are also expected to see job growth after adding 1,800 jobs last year.
Researchers say manufacturing has struggled recently, with an expected small employment decline this year before gaining back some jobs in 2026 and 2027. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing lost jobs in 2024 and is estimated to lose more this year, with some recovery expected over the next two years due to the reopening of GM's Orion Assembly plant.
There is concern with a recent decline in professional, scientific and technical services where 5,900 jobs were lost in the past two years combined. Another 900 job losses are expected this year before the sector stabilizes in the next two years.
More job losses are expected in administrative and support and waste management services, 1,500 jobs over the next three years, as well as with retail trade employment which is expected to continue to decline in the next three years, losing an average of 200 jobs per year.
Researchers say the county's average real wage is projected to rise to $77,300 by 2027, about $8,000 higher than the statewide average.
Although Oakland County faces a more complex and uncertain economic environment compared to a year ago, the U-M forecast remains cautiously optimistic, acknowledging that the road to full recovery will likely feature some twists.
"We believe that Oakland's long-run fundamentals remain strong," Ehrlich said. "Its well-educated labor force, high concentration of professional jobs and low poverty rate provide resilience in the face of uncertainty."
In the long run, Oakland's strong fundamentals are expected to prevail over short-term challenges, allowing it to remain one of the most prosperous local economies in the country, the economists say. The direction of federal economic policy, particularly related to tariffs and international trade, poses significant short-term challenges.