LSU vs. MSU in Sweet 16 is really Waters vs. Winston

Cassius Winston and Tremont Waters
Photo credit USA TODAY Sports

This time of year, nothing is easy.  That old cliche' is especially true for this year's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, where the top 12 seeds all advanced, and 14 of the top 16 seeds.  The best teams separated themselves from the March pretenders, setting up one of the most highly anticipated second weekends in recent tournament history.

LSU (#3) and Michigan State (#2) seemed to be on a collision course when the tournament bracket was unveiled, and both teams took care of business on the opening weekend to set up to the matchup -- although both teams advanced in different ways.

The Spartans (30-6) handled both #15 Bradley and #10 Minnesota with relative ease, beating each team by double digits in games that weren't ever really in doubt.  LSU (28-6), meanwhile, had to hold off furious late comeback attempts by both #14 Yale and #6 Maryland, winning those games by a combined six points.  The way both teams advanced to this week's game mirrored trends for each program late in the season, with Michigan State continuing their red-hot play that saw them with both the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament titles, with LSU struggling to find their way though the suspension of head coach Will Wade while navigating through the dark cloud of scrutiny that now surrounds the program.

So here we are, each team four wins away from college basketball's ultimate prize that are thriving in different ways.  Different except one notable similarity: the exceptional play of their Cousy finalist point guards, LSU's Tremont Waters and Michigan State's Cassius Winston.  Both are two of the best players remaining in the tournament, and both team's tournament fortunes now squarely rely on their floor generals.  

From overlooked point guard to Big Ten Player of the Year. @Chris_Grismer on @cassiuswinston: https://t.co/cce3wF3nHT

— The Ringer (@ringer) March 24, 2019

Consider that both Waters (15.0 ppg) and Winston (18.9 ppg) lead their teams in scoring this season.  They also lead the team in assists per game (Waters 5.9, Winston 7.6), with Winston leading his team in minutes (33 mpg) and Waters (32.5 mpg) a close second to Skylar Mays for LSU.  They two point guards shoot over 80% from the free throw line, and are capable deep threats, although Winston (40.1%) has the advantage over Waters (32.1%) in that category.  Both players are also finalists for the Bob Cousy Award that goes to the best point guard in the country.  

Simply put, these are two of the best players remaining in the tournament, and if LSU is going to advance to the East Region Final then Waters is going to have to out-duel Winston.  That won't be easy.

One of the glaring issues for the Tigers this season has been perimeter defense, specifically against guards that are multi-dimensional scorers.  Winston checks those boxes, and is also a maestro when distributing the basketball to his teammates.  When I wrote before the tournament that Michigan State may be LSU's kryptonite, Winston is the reason why.  It's tough to envision an LSU team that had problems defending Yale's Alex Copeland (24 points) or Florida's Jalen Hudson (33 points) in recent matchups is going to suddenly figure out how to defend Winston, one of the country's best guards, and this season's Big Ten Player of the Year.  

Winston has been his normal, consistently-great self in the tournament so far, averaging 19.5 points in two games, while dishing out 13 assists, grabbing seven boards, all while shooting over 46% from the field.  LSU will need to, at minimum, keep Winston around those numbers on Friday if they're going to advance.

Strong candidate for One Shining Moment. #TremontWaters #LSU pic.twitter.com/mZKDbIpjmM

— Camron Smith (@camronsmith) March 23, 2019

Waters, meanwhile, will need to play the best game of this Tigers' career to give LSU their best chance to win on Friday night.  He has been sensational in so many critical moments this season -- see his game-winning basket against Maryland last Saturday -- but he's also been bitten by the turnover bug late in games too many times: remember the ball-roll debacle?  Keep the sensational, ditch the mind-numbing turnovers, and Waters will give LSU a chance to pull off one of the bigger postseason upsets in program history. 

Heck, this is the time of year for Madness, after all, so LSU in the Elite 8 doesn't seem that far-fetched.  They're only 40 minutes of high-pressure basketball against one of this generation's best NCAA Tournament programs from making it happen.