The NASCAR Cup Series continues its Florida swing as they travel to Homestead-Miami Speedway. The Dixie Vodka 400 will feature the first 1.5 mile track of the season. Usually this is the final race where a NASCAR champion is crowned; but with scheduling changes from 2020, the championship finale is now scheduled in Phoenix.
The past two races at Daytona International Speedway featured first time winners Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell. That will likely change this week as the cream rises to the top on 1.5 mile oval tracks.
Drivers Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin come into the race as favorites because of their dominance last season at similar tracks. Plus, they are just two of four drivers this season to have top-10 finishes in both 2021 Daytona races.
Fresh tires will be key in this race as tire wear on this track is similar to what we see at Atlanta Speedway. The falloff of the car’s speed significantly drops after just a few laps on used tires. We saw Denny Hamlin have no issues in last year’s race, sweeping Stages 1 & 2, leading 137 laps and taking the checkered flag.
Hamlin will definitely be a driver to watch, but with this NASCAR season already giving us two random winners, it’s quite possible the favorites will fail to win again. Here are some drivers you should buy and sell for the Dixie Vodka 400:
Buy:
Kyle Busch: (Odds: 10/1)
Last week I talked about Joe Gibbs Racing being the manufacturer to watch, and it was Christopher Bell who came out with the win. This week, the top drivers in JGR are going to feast at a track where they’ve had a ton of success in the past.
Busch has six straight top-7 finishes including two wins in 2019 and 2015. He’s also led 228 laps during that span in the championship finale. The #18 car struggled last season only getting to victory lane once. I think Busch has a big rebound this season, and that momentum could start this week at one of his best tracks.
Kyle Larson: (Odds: 8/1)
One name you’ll hear all week is #5 driver Kyle Larson. Larson took most of the season off last year due to being suspended by NASCAR. Now he’s back and inside better equipment with Hendrick Motorsports.
Looking at his recent performances at Homestead, nobody has dominated the race during Stages 1 & 2 like Larson. In just three races, he leads the field with 28 stage points in each stage compared to the rest of the drivers, who have an additional race under their belts.
All that is great, but the only factor holding Larson back is the finishing result. He hasn’t finished inside the top-5 since 2017. Larson does have a 3rd place finish in 2017, which he likely could have won; but let the championship contenders duel it out for the win. Kyle Larson’s success comes from riding close to the wall, which gives him a speed advantage on the track. His method also helps to give his car less tire wear during those final laps. Larson could get the win Sunday, but I expect a top-5 is a lock.
Sell:
Alex Bowman: (Odds: 33/1)
One driver who has struggled in Miami is Kyle Larson’s teammate Alex Bowman. In the four races inside the #88 car, Bowman has only one top-10 and zero stage points in three of the four races.
These results are kind of surprising coming from a Hendrick car. His teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron finished 2nd and 9th in last year’s race. Bowman crossed the finish line in 18th.
Bowman’s best results have come in the West Coast swing. Normally, NASCAR would be headed out west; but with scheduling changes in 2021, they’ll stay on the East Coast for a few more weeks. Keep your expectations low this week, and wait for better tracks like California Auto Club, Texas and Las Vegas.
Longshot Quick Picks:
Tyler Reddick: (Odds 22/1)
A driver whose style is similar to Kyle Larson is Tyler Reddick. Last year, in his rookie season, Reddick finished 4th place. Reddick was driving in the top-3 for the majority of the race and should find himself near the front again this week.
While Reddick is a long-shot to win, it wouldn’t surprise me if he makes it three straight first time winners in the NASCAR Cup Series. Tyler Reddick’s best chance at winning should come here, so a top-10 finish is expected.
Christopher Bell: (Odds 28/1)
Winner of last week’s Daytona road course race, Christopher Bell comes in trying to make it back to back wins. Bell showed off impressive driving skills for someone entering his second season in the Cup Series. Bell finished in 8th place in last year’s race at Homestead. I like his chances again for a top-10 finish.
