The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the “Monster Mile” this weekend. Dover International Speedway offers drivers a one mile concrete track, which is unique to the rest of NASCAR tracks on the schedule.
The Drydene 400 served up different winners the past five years; Kevin Harvick was last year’s champion. Harvick is one of only two active drivers, who won multiple Drydene 400’s twice in their careers, the other is Ryan Newman.
Trying to find a winner this week shouldn’t be too difficult. Dover offers a pool of drivers, who have historically driven well here, and the truth is there hasn’t been any surprise winners in past years.
The favorites this week are last week’s winner Martin Truex Jr. (+350) and runner-up Kyle Larson (+450). After that, there are a couple of drivers looking for their first win of the 2021 season in Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott. It wouldn’t be a shock to see one of these three drivers find victory lane Sunday based on their history at Dover and how dominant each driver was in 2020.
All that being said, let’s look at some drivers to buy or sell this week. Plus, there may be a longshot or two who could surprise with a top-5 finish.
Buy:
Kyle Busch (Odds: 8/1)
After getting a win in Kansas two weeks ago, KB looks to have gotten his mojo back. Busch followed up his win with a third place finish last week and could be on the verge of his second win of the season. He’s second among active drivers in laps led at Dover right behind last year’s winner Kevin Harvick.
The last time the #18 M&M’s Toyota was victorious at Dover was in 2017, but since then it has finished with four top-10 results in the last six races. Both of Busch’s teammates, Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin recently won here. Hamlin was last year’s Drydene 311 winner with Truex Jr. finishing right behind him in 2nd. Truex also has a Drydene 400 win back in 2016. That being said, the Toyotas looked very strong at Dover International in 2020, so I’ll stay with them again in 2021.
Brad Keselowski (Odds: 13/1)
I was going to pick Kevin Harvick here, but I went with another Ford in the #2 Penske Ford of Brad Keselowski. His driving history at Dover has been very consistent, but since his win in 2012, Keselowski finished mostly around 10th place. The reason I like him this week is consistency. The #2 Ford led laps in each of the last four races and has a win at Talladega followed by a 3rd place at Kansas.
Keselowski is tied with Truex and Larson with five top-5 finishes. The only other driver who can top that is Denny Hamlin with nine, but zero victories.
Two bets I like this week on Keselowski. Right now the #2 car is (+165) to finish in the top-5. The other is Keselowski finishing as the Top Ford driver at (+325). That means a $100 bet would win you $325 plus your $100 returned for a net of $425.
Sell:
Chase Elliott (Odds: 8/1)
Dover used to be one of Elliott’s best tracks on the Cup Series circuit, but lately that hasn’t been the case for last year’s champion. In his first year in the #9 Hendrick Chervolet, Elliott picked up a win in Dover. Since then, he’s had some really bad luck with engine trouble or unavoidable accidents.
Normally, I would ignore the bad luck and buy low on a driver. I just can’t ignore the results in 2021. In the past two months, Elliott only led three laps during this eight race span. Like drivers Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, so far Elliott can’t replicate the results of 2020. It seems all the Hendrick muscle power transferred over to his teammate Kyle Larson, who’s arguably one of the best drivers this season.
Longshots:
Christopher Bell (Odds: 25/1)
The fourth of the Joe Gibbs Toyota drivers, rookie Christopher Bell, should be the beneficiary of all three of his teammates having recent success at Dover. Bell won the second race of the season and since then has only finished top-5 once. That top-5 finish was at Richmond, which is a track that historically favors Toyota drivers.
Bell should be a safe bet for a top-10 finish at (-118). If you want to gamble a little more, his odds to finish top-5 this week are (+325).