The New Orleans Saints are looking to keep their winning ways rolling against a Patriots squad flying high after an upset of the juggernaut Bills. So what gives?
The Saints will be getting some key players back in the action on both sides of the ball as Spencer Rattler looks to outduel another QB from the 2024 draft class.
THE GAME | Patriots (3-2) at Saints (1-4)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Oct. 12
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, La.
- Series history: Patriots lead 10-6
- Last meeting: 2023, Saints 34, Patriots 0
- Betting: Saints +3; over/under 43.5
- TV: CBS
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Jeff Nowak & Steve Geller, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Bobby Hebert & Steve Geller, 10 a.m.-noon
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching most closely when the Saints look to keep their winning ways going against the Patriots.
━━
1. Can Chase Young be a game-changer?
The Saints have been patiently waiting, and Saints fans have been impatiently waiting, but the wait is over: Chase Young is set to take the field in Week 6.
But what will it look like? This is what Kellen Moore said when asked about whether Chase Young would be on a snap count this week.
“We’ll keep an eye on it, but he’s done a ton of work," Moore said, "so he should be in a good place just to go.”
Fair enough. I'd still be surprised if he played more than 60-70% of the defensive snaps, and I think that'll be by design. Chase Young can do a lot of things, but where I need Chase Young to change the game is in the pass rush. I think you'll continue to see Brandon Staley utilize a rotation featuring Young, Cam Jordan, Carl Granderson and Chris Rumph, but where I always want to see Young is on passing downs. Any 2nd and 7 or longer, any 3rd and 4 or longer, I want him on the field. I expect he will be.
The Saints pass rush to this point has been a bit tough to grade. On the one hand they're taking advantage of pressure at as high a rate of anyone and their 12 sacks is tied for 14th in the NFL. But overall pressures? That's not a pretty picture, with their 45 total ranking 30th in the NFL.
Chase Young was 6th in the NFL last year with 73 pressures, even if that only resulted in 5.5 sacks. I think the Saints defense will benefit greatly from extra pressure that forces the QB to play under duress. That'll help on third downs, it'll help the young defense be more aggressive and not have to cover all day.
Young looked to fit this defense like a glove throughout training camp. The group has handled things without him as well as you could've hoped, but I truly do think his presence will unlock what this scheme is supposed to be.
Related
━━
2. Can Saints offense stay explosive?
I've sounded like a broken record over the first month-plus of the season, but ... explosive plays, explosive plays, explosive plays. I needed to see more, or at the very least more attempts to hit them.
We saw that in Week 5 with Rashid Shaheed's 87-yard touchdown that energized everyone from the sideline to the upper deck. But it wasn't just that play. Spencer Rattler made aggressive reads on two other plays targeting Chris Olave on double moves, in both instances drawing three long pass interference penalties (25 yards, 19 yards and 16 yards).
Yes, the Saints do count those big penalties alongside their big pass plays, because it accomplished the same goal: put pressure on the defense.
The Patriots and Giants are similar in the sense that they don't disguise a ton. They run their stuff, and the QB can typically trust what he's seeing pre-snap. Rattler will have to be alert for some trickery, but I expect him to continue to look like the confident player we've seen through the first five weeks.
The Saints currently have 1 pass play of 40-plus yards (T26) and 5 pass plays of 20-plus yards (32nd). The Saints are also tied for 29th in the league with 5.6 yards per attempt. The Patriots defense has only allowed one pass play of 40-plus yards (T3), but they have allowed a league-high 21 pass plays of 20-plus yards.
You get the idea. Block them up, take your chances. Be aggressive. This Patriots run defense is one of the best in the NFL, and you can't rely on being in 3rd and short. Getting chunk plays on early downs will be critical.
Related
━━
3. Can special teams be an edge?
I'll honestly settle for a wash, because the Saints' special teams execution simply hasn't been consistent enough through the first five weeks. There have been nice moments, but far too many lost value moments.
I'm not going to sit here and rehash them all, but I'm hoping the improvement starts early. The Saints' average field position after kickoffs last week was the 15 yard line (9, 20 and 16). The team can't settle for that, it they'll have at least one change on that unit. The Saints waived Velus Jones Jr., who has been back there alongside Kendre Miller through the first five weeks. Jones was brought back on the practice squad but was not elevated this week.
Who will it be lining across from Miller now? If you believe the depth chart it'd be Rashid Shaheed, but that just feels unwise. Shaheed is already handling punt return duties and a full slate at wide receiver. No kicker in their right mind would kick it to him if he's back there, so he'd effectively be out there to block.
The player who'd make the most sense to me is Taysom Hill, though he's just returned from a knee injury and maybe you don't see that wear being worth it right now, either. Mason Tipton could be an option, as could Devin Neal if the Saints opt to have him active. If they don't, they'd be entering the game with just two active running backs.
It's not all about the returns, though. I'd really like to see Blake Grupe have a perfect day and build some confidence. A 10-15 start is ugly. The team is sticking behind him, but there's got to be a course correction soon. I'm confident it'll happen. Special teams coordinator Phil Galiano agrees, and said he broke out the film of Grupe after he hit a 56-yarder against the Broncos in the preseason.
"I could see his swagger after he hit the kick, and I told him, this is the Blake Grupe I need back,' " Galiano said. " 'This is who we all believe in and we know who you are, so this is what we need back.' ”
But just for perspective, here's where the Saints rank in some key special teams metrics:
- Average net punt yards: 36.1 (28th)
- Punt return yards allowed: 151 (T27th)
- FG percentage: 66.7% (32nd)
- Kickoff return average allowed: 29.2 (32nd)
- Kickoff return average: 24 (27th)
Do I need to say more? There are teams out there that are good enough to win in spite of one of struggling special teams units. The Saints were that last week. They won't be most weeks. That group has to be better.
━━
LAGNIAPPE
The Saints only have one player who was ruled out due to injury this week (Isaac Yiadom), and I'm not sure he'd be starting even if he was available. It's probably too early to make any broad conclusions about Ted Rath's new program for this team, but early returns sure look good. ... Cesar Ruiz is back a lot faster than I expected from his ankle injury. That means the team will be getting its starting OL on the field for the second time this season. The lone other instance was Week 4 in Buffalo, with the Saints rushing for 118 yards in the first half before Ruiz left with the injury. ... Davon Godchaux revenge game? He spent the last four seasons with the Patriots before before unceremoniously shipped out by the new regime. He didn't play into that dynamic when he spoke to the media this week, but it's hard to imagine there's not some extra motivation. ... The last time the Saints played the Patriots they landed a 34-0 shutout in Foxborough. There's a lot of new pieces since that game was played way back in 2023 and both coaches have new regimes, but I have to imagine that game isn't remembered fondly by the folks still in the building. Maybe a little revenge narrative there, too? Anything to avoid the inevitable emotional letdown after what the Pats did in Buffalo last week. ... Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara have had virtually a 50/50 rushing attempt split each of the past two weeks, and I expect that to continue if things go according to plan. Doug Nussmeier has repeated compared the tandem to Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. That duo finished the 2022 season (the last Nussmeier was there) with 231 attempts (Zeke) to 193 (Pollard), with Pollard leading the tandem in rushing (1,007) while Zeke led in touchdowns (12). Do with that information what you will. Kamara was dealing with an ankle injury this week in practice, but he said he didn't expect that to impact the game.