In the NFL, the sheer number of possible plays, assignments, split-second changes at the line, and variables that go into all 11 players executing each play properly makes the task of winning any NFL game extremely complicated. Usually, there are more things that can go wrong on a play than can go right. But, looking at the Saints' stats from the first four games through the rearview mirror and determining the winner and loser each week feels pretty simple: If you hold onto the football and run efficiently with it, your chances of winning increase greatly.
The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0; why? Because they have a high-powered offense? No, just the opposite. They average 263 yards a game, which is 31st in the NFL. They have just 1 offensive touchdown in their last 3 games. But they run it efficiently, averaging 104 yards a game – not great, but efficient. And they don’t turn it over. In four games, they have thrown 2 interceptions and haven't lost a fumble. Zero.
Before I get to the Saints offense, it is imperative to note that the Vikings defense has forced 7 turnovers in 4 games, which helps the balance sheet greatly.
But now onto the Saints offense through its first four games. They have 3 interceptions and have lost 5 fumbles. That’s 8 turnovers in four games. Their lone Week 2 victory in Baltimore is the only game where the Saints won the turnover battle, and they did so with 1 interception to seal the win.
Eight giveaways in four games is hard to overcome, and the Black and Gold have been inefficient running the football, averaging 88 yards per game. Not horrible, given that their big offseason free agent, Travis Etienne, is on injured reserve for 4 weeks, but the ground game hasn't been able to sustain drives. The Saints offense is throwing the ball all over the place and putting up impressive numbers through the air, sometimes because, as we all know, they are playing from behind.
Tyler Shough has been solid given what he’s been faced with. But, frankly, his being second in the NFL for QB attempts (Shough is first in attempts per game) is not the stat category I want for my second-year QB. Through 4 games, he’s thrown it 180 times, 18 more than third-place Matthew Stafford and Bryce Young. Now, Shough trails only Dak Prescott, who’s in first only because he’s already played his Week 5 game. Following this Sunday vs. the Vikings, it’s likely that Shough will lead the league again.
But all this to say: Throwing the ball an average of 45 times a game is rarely a recipe for success, and doing it that often brings interceptions and fumbles into the equation.
I’ll finish with a closer look at the last 2 Primetime games and the importance of running the football and turnovers. Monday night, in the loss to the Falcons, Atlanta rushed for 205 yards, the Saints for 50, and won the turnover battle 1-0. On Thursday night, the 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into Dallas and beat the Cowboys 24-16. They did so by rushing for 241 yards, holding Dallas to the same 50 yards on the ground the Saints rushed for against Atlanta. Tampa also won the turnover battle 3-0. That’s huge.
So, if the Saints want to hand Minnesota its first loss and finish this three-game home-stand on a positive note, they’ll have to run the ball efficiently and hold onto the football. Thus far, that’s been easier said than done.
