“I don’t trust the polls”
“The polls are biased - no one ever called me.”
These are a couple of the comments that consistently come up whenever a poll shows that someone’s candidate is behind in the polls. So, how accurate are the polls?
When the midterm elections are over - I’m looking to compare the polls right before the elections to the actual results right after the votes are counted. How close will they be? We will find out.
The midterm elections are 26 days away and the polls consistently show that the Democrats are in a position to win a number of seats over Republicans - even in red states. Sen John Kennedy (R-LA) recently commented that he would never have believed that he would be traveling to red states campaigning for Republican candidates who are in tight races with Democrats. President Trump has constantly been on the campaign trail in red states stumping for Republicans. To say that President Trump is desperate to insure that Democrats don’t win the midterm elections is an understatement.
Should the Democrats win control of the House and the Senate - and the Democrats lead the Republicans by 8 points nationally right now - President Trump will probably be impeached again. But removing him from office will be a difficult task. There would be investigations into many of Trump’s activities from his cryptocurrency wealth to the gifted Qatari jet to the behavior of ICE agents breaking the law to refusing to comply with subpoenas. And that’s a short list.
Polls are showing that Democratic candidates are leading against many Republicans and enough political analysts are predicting a “blue tsunami” to make that seem like a real possibility. President Trump and his extremely low approval rating - now in the neighborhood of a low of 32% to a high of 40% - is responsible for the struggle of many Republican candidates. Some die-hard Republicans and MAGA supporters have broken with the president on key issues out of fear they will lose in the midterms. The war with Iran - a decision that seems to have been a single decision by President Trump - has caused a severe dip in the economy and a difficult rise in the cost-of-living in America. While the president continues to brag about how great the economy is - Republican voters know he’s lying every time they go to the store to buy groceries.
It’s no surprise that the polls show Trump with a low approval rating and Democratic candidates ahead of their Republican challengers. But how accurate are the polls?
My theory is that people - today - are more reluctant to express their honest feelings about politics - even to pollsters who do not make their names and their opinions public. Times have changed and many Americans are more cynical than ever about expressing their opinions about politics. It is not difficult to imagine that a voter who is called by a pollster may go along with the current narrative promoted in the media from the polls. The polls are showing that President Trump is toxic and the Democrats are heading for a “blue tsunami.”
Many voters might be saying what they think is the popular thing to say - but when they get in the voting booth on Election Day - they will vote Republican because that’s what they have always done. More importantly - many Americans define who they are - as a person. We often talk about who we are, Democrat or Republican first, and American second.
In this upcoming election - the polls may represent what voters think is the right answer rather than represent their honest opinion.
There is no doubt that many voters - even Republicans and MAGA supporters - blame President Trump for many of the problems Americans are facing. But are we really headed for a “blue tsunami”? It will be interesting to compare the polls right before the election with the actual results and see if the polls were right.
