Keep the umbrella close and the rain gear handy.
LSU climatologist Barry Keim says a stalled weather pattern is setting up across Louisiana that could bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, with some areas seeing several inches of rainfall.
The setup begins with a late-season cold front expected to move into the state and then stall, creating an unstable atmosphere capable of producing widespread thunderstorms.
"We're going to be in a very wet pattern really for the whole week, especially during the first half of the week," Keim said.
For the New Orleans area, Keim expects rainfall totals of two to four inches over the next seven days, with isolated locations potentially receiving higher amounts. Across portions of central, western and northern Louisiana, totals could reach seven to eight inches.
The wet forecast is being enhanced by a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf that is expected to help funnel additional moisture into the region.
While Keim says the system has a low chance of developing into a tropical storm, it will provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms.
"It's not so much the wind we're worried about," he said. "It's the moisture. There's going to be a lot of tropical moisture available for these storms to wring out."
The heaviest storms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours when daytime heating combines with abundant humidity.
Keim says residents should be prepared for brief periods of intense rainfall that could impact commutes and create localized flooding concerns.
"If one of these storms develops over your area, you could be looking at 20 to 30 minutes of some pretty ugly weather," he said.
Forecasters are especially watching for "training" storms, where multiple rounds of rain move across the same area repeatedly, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
The silver lining is that the rainfall will continue to improve drought conditions that have lingered across parts of Louisiana in recent months.
"This is the kind of rain farmers and ranchers would love to see spread out over several days," Keim said. "The challenge is when too much falls too quickly."
Current forecasts call for rain chances around 50 to 60 percent Monday, increasing to near 90 percent Tuesday before gradually tapering later in the week. However, scattered storms remain possible through the weekend.
Keim's advice is simple: plan ahead, allow extra time for travel and keep the umbrella nearby.
"It may not rain every day," he said, "but it can rain on any day this week."'
