Jeff Landry's chances of winning the Louisiana gubernatorial election outright in the primary are getting better as the night goes on. That's according to one analyst who's watching returns as they're tabulated.
John Couvillon of JMC Analytics says Landry is still overperforming in most parishes and precincts, while Democratic candidate Shawn Wilson are overperforming only in Orleans Parish and St. Charles Parish. Couvillon believes as more returns from Republican stronghold parishes come in, Landry will come close to--if not surpass--the 50-percent-plus-one mark.
"Forty percent," Couvillon says is the chance that Landry wins the governor's office outright in the primary. "My model, and this is after incorporating the more-Democratic-heavy early voting numbers from Orleans, East Baton Rouge, and Caddo (Parishes), I'm showing Jeff up 47-29 over Shawn, whereas my original projection had them at 45-31. The other thing that's happening is when I'm looking at election day votes in several parishes, whatever Jeff got in the early vote, you can add a couple of points to that for the election day vote because it's more Republican as I suspected."
Earlier in the night, Couvillon handicapped Landry's chances at winning outright at 25 percent. He also noted that no one other than Landry or Wilson has a chance to make the runoff.
