Early voting for the November 5 election is now under way in Louisiana. Although the presidential election is at center stage of this election, one pollster believes overall voter turnout will be down this cycle.
"People just aren't into this election," JMC Analytics founder John Couvillon of JMC Analytics said.
According to Couvillon, mail-in voting is down nearly 50 percent from 2020 nationwide. He says some mail-in voters are becoming in-person voters. However, Couvillon doesn't believe the increase in early and Election Day voting will offset those losses. Couvillon points to two reasons why: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
"I think that you can make the argument there's fatigue from having the same person on the ballot for three elections in a row," Couvillon said. "From looking at primary voter turnout and early voting turnout, Kamala Harris is not energizing Democratic voters to the same extent that Joe Biden was in 2020."
Couvillon believes lower voter turnout will benefit Trump, especially in swing states.
"That dip in turnout has been disproportionally on the Democratic side," Couvillon said. "Those one- or two-point differences, in my opinion, can flip a state."
Couvillon expects Trump to carry Louisiana easily. He says if there are any surprises in the state's results, the early voting numbers from Jefferson Parish will be a signal.
"Jefferson Parish is a Republican Parish, but not overwhelmingly so. In fact, Governor John Bel Edwards carried it twice," Couvillon said. "Let's pretend for a millisecond that Donald Trump were having any problems in Louisiana: Jefferson Parish would be the proverbial distant early warning."
Early voting continues until October 29.
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