Several of the forecast computer models have consistently called for a more intense Hurricane Ida than what the National Hurricane Center is forecasting.
The official forecast calls for a category three storm with tops sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, a major hurricane, and landfall near Houma, LA late Sunday into early Monday.
Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven, Ph.D., however notes that is not as strong as much of the model data suggests.
"This intensity is lower than that forecast by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Florida State Superensemble," Beven wrote.
With the hurricane protection system surrounding the New Orleans area designed to protect against a category three, an official forecast or a category four hurricane (winds of 130+) would likely trigger an evacuation of the entire region.
We have already seen a mandatory evacuation of Grand Isle.
Mayor of Jean Lafitte Tim Kerner, Jr. and Jefferson Parish President Cynthia Lee Sheng have issued a voluntary evacuation for the town of Jean Lafitte, Lower Lafitte, Crown Point and Barataria at 9:30am. Sheng holds a news conference at 2:00pm.
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell has called an 11:15am news conference to "provide updates related to Tropical Storm Ida."
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards speaks at 3:30pm.
