Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean Sea.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars. It's center of circulation is located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.
Louisiana is in the center of Rafael's cone of uncertainty, with the NHC predicting landfall late Saturday or early Sunday. Although forecasters expect Rafael to reach Category 1 strength before making landfall on Grand Cayman and Cuba and to maintain that strength after crossing those islands, they believe Rafael will weaken as it approaches the Louisiana coast.
"In a few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the forecast period," forecasters wrote.
