Following two of the most disappointing losses in the Mike Tomlin era, the now-daily conversation over what the future of the Pittsburgh Steelers should look like -and how it aligns with Tomlin’s future- has hit a rolling boil. National pundits remind us that he’s never had a losing season and we should appreciate what we have in a future Hall of Fame head coach. Local analysts remind everyone that this isn’t Jacksonville or Arizona or Detroit, where simply making the playoffs is good enough, and furthermore, change has worked in places like Philadelphia, and… well, Philadelphia.
Regardless of whether you live in Yakima or Youngstown, Garfield or Guam, if you’re a Steelers fan, you undoubtedly have an opinion on how 7-4 turned to 7-6 against two of the worst teams in football, and how or why Tomlin is responsible or not.
That’s not why we’re here today, though. (Although, for what it’s worth, I think we can fault Tomlin for the losses to Arizona and New England, given the sloppiness of both games. I also think that while he has a great say in what his roster and staff look like, he is not the all-encompassing emperor some make him out to be. Nonetheless, if his top skill is being a leader of men and motivating players, he’s failing miserably this season.)
We’re here today to gaze in to a crystal ball. Or, if you like, play a game of Choose Your Own Adventure.
As a kid, probably around eight or nine years old, I got in to a phase where all I wanted to read were one of two things: Sports Illustrated or ‘Choose Your Own Adventure’ books. These books allowed you to make decisions that would then send you down one of two or three different plot structures by turning to a different page.
For example, “After walking with some classmates to Old Man Rooney’s house at 3400 South Water Street, your friend Jason tells everyone that it’s haunted, and dares you to sneak in. Choice: Do you go inside? (turn to page 2) Or: Do you convince your friends that it’s all a rumor and you should go to the movies instead? (go to page 3)”
So let’s play out some scenarios and see if we can forecast how things could go for Tomlin, his quarterbacks, and the Steelers, based on the final four weeks.
Scenario I (The Sunshine Scenario): The Steelers improbably go 4-0 down the stretch, including a massive upset of the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 18, winning the AFC North in the process. At 11-6, they host the 5th-seeded Browns for a Wild Card Game. Joe Flacco sees the ghosts that have long haunted him at Heinz Field. The Steelers exact some revenge for the 2020 Wild Card ‘Browns is the Browns’ massacre at the hands of Baker Mayfield. A Divisional Round trip to Arrowhead awaits, and as suspected, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce find a rhythm in the middle of the field and dissect the Steelers’ defense.
But the long playoff losing streak is vanquished, and against a divisional foe, no less.
Do you A) extend Tomlin, but make it clear he and his new offensive coordinator get no more than 16 games to figure out if Kenny Pickett is the guy. Scroll down to Option 4 B) make Tomlin coach out the final season of his deal, knowing vultures may start circling and his price may rise astronomically if he succeeds again next season? Scroll down to Option 1 C) capitalize on the strong finish and peddle Tomlin to a team drafting in the Top 10, knowing you can take another swing at QB after choosing the best of the future head coach hiring cycle? Scroll down to Option 3
Scenario II (The We’ve Been Here Before, Haven’t We? Scenario): The Steelers win two or three of their final four games to finish 9-8 or 10-7 and as a Wild Card head to either Baltimore or Jacksonville. Their anemic offense can’t keep pace with the opposing attack, and the opposing QB does just enough at home to survive and defeat Pittsburgh by a TD.
Despite showing life down the stretch, Tomlin’s playoff losing streak extends to five games in a row, and seven years, each the longest such drought for the franchise during the Super Bowl era.
Do you A) tell Tomlin he’s going to have to go into the 2024 season as a lame duck and prove himself capable of winning a playoff game before you’ll consider extending him next winter? You take charge of the OC hiring process, and warn him of how hot his seat will be next season. Scroll down to Option 1 B) You grant Tomlin an extension but make it just one year tacked on through 2025, and tell him the offensive coordinator hire is his, but it better be the kind of coach who can help figure out if Pickett is the guy or not. Scroll down to Option 4 C) see if you can deal Tomlin with just a year remaining on his deal, knowing there will be a market for a future Hall of Fame head coach but not knowing what it may look like given his inability to win in the playoffs recently. Scroll down to Option 3
Scenario III (The Flaming Elmo Meme Scenario): The Steelers collapse down the stretch, winning just one game, or perhaps none, finishing with a losing record for the first time during Tomlin’s tenure, at either 8-9 or 7-10. The 10-loss scenario would mean a six-game skid to end the season, the longest losing streak of Tomlin’s career, the losingest Steelers’ campaign in two decades, and quite possibly the first last place finish in 35 years.
Do you, A) fire Tomlin the day after the season is over, making a search for a forward-thinking, offensive-minded head coach your first priority? Scroll down to Option 2 B) attempt to deal a lame duck-Tomlin knowing you may not get nearly as much in return? Scroll down to Option 3 C) keep Tomlin as a lame duck under some very specific conditions, including taking the OC hiring process out of his hands, limiting his input on a new QB search conducted by Khan and/or Andy Weidl, and telling him he must win a certain number of games, including one in the playoffs, or he’ll be dismissed in a year? Scroll down to Option 1
You’ve chosen Option 1, electing to keep Tomlin as a lame duck head coach with one lone season remaining on his deal. Khan lets Mason Rudolph walk and releases Mitch Trubisky, but with little available in the QB market, whether via trade or free agency, he does what he can to provide Tomlin a competitive starter without mortgaging the future, acquiring Baker Mayfield to battle with Pickett for the starting job next summer, with Klint Kubiak brought in as Offensive Coordinator.
You’ve chosen Option 2, deciding to fire Tomlin. After watching their work with C.J. Stroud in Houston, you aggressively pursue and hire Texans’ OC Bobby Slowik and QB coach Jarrod Johnson to be your Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator, respectively, hoping they can salvage Pickett before you have to decide to pick up his fifth year option or not.
You’ve chosen Option 3, attempting to deal Tomlin and make drastic changes to turn the organization in a different direction. You find out the market for trading coaches isn’t nearly what it was twenty years ago though, when the Raiders received multiple 1st Rounders and 2nd Rounders in exchange for Jon Gruden. The Washington Commanders agree to give you their 2nd Round pick and swap 1st Rounders, though.
So you gain some capital, but not the highway robbery-style heist some expected. Moving up from the 18th pick to the 5th and adding the 37th to go with the 50th affords you the opportunity though to move back from 5th to 7th overall, add more high value picks, and take another swing at the QB market, selecting Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU. You know a Top 10 QB is only as good as the coaching around him though, so after watching what they did for C.J. Stroud in Houston, you hire a new offensive braintrust in Bobby Slowik & Jarrod Johnson, the Texans’ OC & QB Coach, to be your Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator.
You’ve chosen Option 4, leaning in to consistency because you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers. You allow Tomlin to give his 2022 1st Round draft pick at least another year to prove himself as the team’s franchise QB, and you tell him he better nail it with this offensive coordinator hire. He decides to go with the son of the guy who helped unlock Pickett’s potential at Pitt, bringing in Arizona’s Pass Game Coordinator and 2006 Pine-Richland grad, Spencer Whipple.
Congratulations, you’ve just completed the Choose-Your-Own-Adventure story for the 2023 Steelers!
Now we get to watch it play out.