With the entire AFC North currently sitting in playoff position at what amounts to the halfway point, but the Baltimore Ravens having a two-game lead for the division crown, it’s natural to take a look at the back half of the schedule and try to figure out what will differentiate the three 5-3 North teams from each other down the stretch.
First, let’s start with the strength of schedule for each team with nine games remaining. The Bengals have, by far, the hardest schedule remaining in the AFC North. While their home opponents (Houston, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the Steelers) are just above .500 (23-19, .548), their road slate is brutal: Baltimore (on a Thursday, no less), Jacksonville, Kansas City, and the Steelers.
Those four teams are a combined 25-9 (.735).
Cincinnati’s Strength of Schedule: .632 (48-28), the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL
The Browns, on the other hand, face a fairly middle of the road schedule.
At home they face the Steelers, Jaguars, Bears, and Jets (on a Thursday) , who’ve combined to go 17-16 (.515). On the road they’ll visit Baltimore, Denver, the Rams, Houston, and Cincinnati, a combined 22-20 (.524).
Cleveland’s Strength of Schedule: .520 (39-36), 7th most difficult in the AFC, 12th in the NFL
Then we have the Steelers’ remaining slate, which looks like a Michigan non-conference schedule, minus the sideline tape. Home games against Green Bay, Arizona, New England (on a Thursday), and Cincinnati (a combined 11-23, .324) means the Steelers don’t face another winning team at home until December 23rd. The road track is tougher, with visits to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Baltimore (26-16, .619).
Steelers’ Strength of Schedule: .487 (37-39), 3rd easiest in the AFC, 11th easiest in the NFL
In fact, only two other AFC teams have an easier schedule down the stretch than the Steelers, the Houston Texans (.459, 34-40) and Indianapolis Colts (.448, 30-37).
Are there dynamics entering the equation aside from team’s current records? Sure. Arizona will be getting Kyler Murray back soon, teams that fire head coaches may get a bounce (we’re looking at you, Raiders), and there will be injuries that are impossible to predict.
There’s also a chance one of the AFC’s four 4-loss teams finds a way to go 6-3 down the stretch, or in Buffalo’s case, just 5-3. Any of those teams getting to 10-7 would mean pressure on the AFC North Wild Cards to avoid falling out of the playoff field.
Are the Bengals playing the best football amongst three right now? Certainly.
But as it stands, if it’s going to take 10 wins to get in to the AFC Wild Card, the easiest path to five more wins belongs to the Steelers. They play four sub-.500 teams to Cleveland’s three and Cincy’s one. They only have one remaining opponent with more than six wins, as compared to Cleveland’s two and Cincy’s three.
They may be the most inconsistent of the bunch, but the path that’s laid out before them says they should be a playoff team.