We did it everyone! We made it to the playoffs. Not that there was ever a doubt that the playoffs would happen, but more so we are celebrating the long slog that is the NFL regular season coming to a close and the real games now starting. All season long I have been trying to predict what the standings and playoffs would look like, and if my standings predictions are any indication, you definitely do not want to trust any of my playoff picks either.
How did I do this season making these picks? Uhhh, not all that great to be honest. It took me until Week 15 to figure out how the NFC would finish because for some reason I believed the Vikings would ride their easy schedule to the 2-seed. I did not predict the AFC until Week 16, mainly due to the fact that it took me a minute to fully appreciate the slow motion train wreck that was the Titans season. So in this final edition of the playoff predictions, each entry will include just how well I did at predicting each team's season, including the highest I had them and the lowest in the standings.
Note: These are not power rankings. These are not picks based off any analytical data or insider knowledge. These are picks based off what I have seen during the season so far. I could be wrong, just like I could be right. Either way, I will be back again next week to offer an updated projection to cover any of my past mistakes. Check out the projections from weeks past here:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17
AFC
1 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) AFC West Winner
High Seed: 1 seed (10 times)
Low Seed: 3 seed (1 time)
The hardest part about the Chiefs was trying to figure out how much they will dominate the NFL on a week-to-week basis.
2 Seed: Buffalo Bills (13-3) AFC East Winner
High Seed: 1 Seed (7 times)
Low Seed: 5 Seed (3 times)
Things got dark when Josh Allen was out, but no one is talking about that anymore.
3 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) AFC North Winner
High Seed: 2 Seed (1 time)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (7 times)
Aside from the Jaguars, no team had a wilder rise in these predictions than the Bengals.
4 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) AFC South Winner
High Seed: 4 Seed (2 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (15 times)
No one had any reason to believe in the Jaguars until the Titans decided the division title was better suited for Trevor Lawrence and Co.
5 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
High Seed: 5 Seed (7 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (3 times)
The AFC West was the only division in the AFC where you knew the division winner all year long with no doubts whatsoever, which made sticking the Chargers in the 5 spot pretty easy to do.
6 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
High Seed: 2 Seed (1 time)
Low Seed: 6 Seed (4 times)
We all wanted to believe in the Ravens, but that was only because the Bengals took some time to get going.
7 Seed: Miami Dolphins (9-8)
High Seed: 3 Seed (3 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (1 time)
For a second, when Josh Allen was out, I briefly thought the Fins could capitalize. We will never know though because Allen got healthy and no one cared about the Dolphins after that.
NFC
1 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) NFC East Winner
High Seed: 1 Seed (13 times)
Low Seed: 2 Seed (4 times)
Once Tampa Bay decided not to be good, the Eagles pretty much put the NFC on cruise control.
2 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (13-4) NFC West Winner
High Seed: 2 Seed (3 times)
Low Seed: 6 Seed (2 times)
The Niners had yet to elevate Brock Purdy to the starting job when I predicted them to finish in the 6 spot back in September. Forgive me.
3 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (13-4) NFC North Winner
High Seed: 2 Seed (8 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (2 times)
The Vikings were exactly who we thought they were until they decided to masquerade as a good team starting after Week 3.
4 Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) NFC South Winner
High Seed: 1 Seed (4 times)
Low Seed: 4 Seed (11 times)
The Bucs are lucky they play in a JV division or else their projections would have looked VERY different this year.
5 Seed: Dallas Cowboys (13-4)
High Seed: 5 Seed (15 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (2 times)
Thanks to their friends in Philly, the Cowboys were able to comfortably set up shop in the 5 seed all year, win 13 games, and hit the road to play a team under .500. The playoffs are so fair and balanced.
6 Seed: New York Giants (9-7-1)
High Seed: 6 Seed (8 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (7 times)
There was a brief time when I thought the Commanders would be the ones to keep the Giants out of the playoffs. Then I remembered that the Commanders are the Commanders and reality took over again.
7 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
High Seed: 6 Seed (3 times)
Low Seed: Out of the playoffs (6 times)
Once the Seahawks found their way into the projected playoff hunt, they refused to go away, and that is about has high a compliment as I can give them.
AFC WILD CARD ROUND
(2) Bills over (7) Dolphins
Dolphins got a coach, a QB the coach likes, and young talent on both sides of the ball. Take your moral victory this season and try not to lose by 40.
(3) Bengals over (6) Ravens
How would this game look if Lamar Jackson was starting for the Ravens? Listen, we have all next year to ask that very same question, for now it does not matter.
(5) Chargers over (4) Jaguars
A game worthy of a primetime audience sees the Chargers win a game that has more turnovers than touchdowns. Great job, NFL schedule makers!
NFC WILD CARD ROUND
(2) 49ers over (7) Seahawks
No rain, no gain right? 49ers do all they can to blow the Seahawks out yet still somehow not cover the spread.
(3) Vikings over (6) Giants
The Giants have flopped into the playoffs and not get to play a team that flops into wins. Not ideal conditions.
(5) Cowboys over (4) Bucs
The Cowboys seem to be leaking oil right as the Bucs are finding their groove again, so naturally expect all of that to flip as the Cowboys shock the world by winning a football game (gasp!) on grass.
DIVISIONAL ROUND
(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers
The Chargers could save us all a lot of time by just firing Brandon Staley before kickoff.
(2) Bills over (3) Bengals
No one wants to bring this up but this is the game that should be played on a neutral field, not the AFC Title Game. The winner of the regular season contest would have hosted this game.
(2) 49ers over (3) Vikings
Brock Purdy replaced Jimmy Garoppolo, who replaced Trey Lance, who replaced Jimmy Garoppolo, who replaced the idea of Kirk Cousins. Imagine an alternate universe where Bill Belichick doesn’t make that phone call to Kyle Shanahan.
(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles
Jalen Hurts picks a bad day to have a bad day.
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs
13 times I have picked the Bills and Chiefs to face off in the playoffs. Final total: Bills 9, Chiefs 4. The Bills found a way to win in Kansas City, and they’ll buckle down and find a way to win in the cozy confines of Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
(2) 49ers over (5) Cowboys
Am I picking this game out of wishful thinking? Possibly. Would the game be epic? My guess is not because the 49ers defense will strangle the life out of the Cowboys offense.
SUPER BOWL
(2) Bills over (2) 49ers
I have picked the Bills to win the AFC 10 times now, and this is the 9th time I’ve picked them to win, more than any other team all year. They have been as good as any team on both sides of the ball, and Josh Allen is absolutely the kind of quarterback to give the 49ers defense the willys.
