The NFC East race has been one of the most compelling stories of the 2020 NFL season, and we have reached the final stages with both the visiting Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants playing for their respective postseason lives.
Dallas is the betting favorite, laying three points to the Giants. The winner of this game will be big Philadelphia Eagles fans come Sunday night. If the Eagle beat the Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football, the winner of this game takes the NFC East and hosts a playoff game.
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*Odds Courtesy of DraftKingsSportsbook as of Wednesday
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5) at New York Giants
The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook opened this line with the Cowboys favored by a point-and-a-half, and Dallas has taken money since, driving this line to the key number of three.
The current form of each team is likely driving this line move. Dallas has won three straight, while the Giants are on the losing end of three in a row.
Questions are mounting in New York about quarterback Daniel Jones’ effectiveness just as Dallas QB Andy Dalton is finding his stride. This has led to many backing the visitors in this critical NFC East showdown.
Trends
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been a strong bet in NFC East matchups, going 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in his career.
New York has gone under the total in six straight games, while Dallas has gone over in 5 of 6 games since Andy Dalton returned to the lineup.
Cowboys’ head coach Mike McCarthy has been profitable as a road favorite, going 33-25 ATS over his coaching career. He is only 1-1 in this spot in Dallas, though.
Analysis
The Giants are limping to the finish line of the season. Daniel Jones has been in and out of the lineup over the past month dealing with a strained hamstring. When he’s played, the results haven’t been pretty. In his last two starts, Jones is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging six yards per attempt.
It’s obvious Jones hasn’t been 100% healthy and that’s impacted his effectiveness as a runner. He has just one rushing attempt since returning from the hamstring injury.
The New York offense has been an eye sore all season, but it’s hit rock bottom of late. After averaging 19 points through 12 games, Big Blue has combined for just 26 over its last three.
A key to this one is who wins the battle between the Giants O and the Cowboys D. The Dallas defense is allowing nearly six yards per play and has a pass defense that can get crushed by chunk plays, the unit ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in explosive pass defense. Can the Giants take advantage of the leaky Dallas secondary with a hobbled Jones? The New York defense will have to hold its ground and win the field position battle to make up for the sputtering offense.
Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and the Cowboys standout receivers have been firing on all cylinders of late. Dalton is completing 66% of his passes over the last three games and the Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in all of them.
Dallas has far more talent on the offensive side of the ball, but the Giants defense has been able to keep them in games with its bend don’t break play. New York’s defense has been especially stout in the red zone, allowing a touchdown just 52% of the time opposing offenses get inside the 20, fourth best in the league.
The Giants have also excelled at getting to the quarterback. New York's defense is fourth in the NFL in pressure rate, per Pro-Football Reference, generating a pressure on more than a quarter of opposing quarterback dropbacks. If the Giants can put heat on Dalton and rattle him early, they have a good chance to pull the upset.
Pick
Dallas should be favored in this game, but three is too much for my liking. The Cowboys found a winning recipe on offense, while the Giants are struggling to generate scoring opportunities, but this is still a high stakes divisional matchup.
Dallas went from being overrated in the market to underrated, back to overrated. Three wins over non playoff teams -- the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, and Eagles -- should not shift the line this far in favor of the Cowboys in what is an even game on paper and the Giants playing at home. Even without fans, we have to adjust the line at least somewhat for home field advantage.
Dallas’ defense still has some question marks and the public is way too high on the Cowboys after three straight wins. This is the perfect time to fade America’s Team.
The BetQL model agrees and sees value with the Giants +3, making New York +1.5 on Sunday. Make sure to check out all the latest betting information on this game at BetQL!