The stakes are high as conference championships take center stage this weekend, and the public betting action has been pouring in. From the Big Ten showdown featuring No. 1 Oregon to an intriguing Mountain West clash, bettors have made their preferences clear. Let’s dive into the public betting report for this weekend's marquee matchups and identify where the books are most exposed.
Big Ten - Oregon (12-0) -3.5 vs. Penn State (11-1): -105, DraftKings
When it comes to public betting, all you have to do is look for the best team in the nation, and you know that everyone and their brother will be wanting a ticket written on them. The Oregon Ducks have that honor here, ranked as the No. 1 team in the country and laying -3.5 against Penn State in the Big 10 title game. This should not shock or surprise anyone at this point.
Right now, a whopping 84% of tickets on the spread have been written backing Oregon to cover -3.5. That means just 16% of the total tickets are on the Nittany Lions. Money is just as lopsided, but even moreso, with a huge 87% of the handle being on the Ducks to cover. I really don’t have to tell you that the sportsbooks would absolutely love for Penn State to cover and win this football game, and they will be rooting hard for them to do so.
I have already bet Penn State +3.5, which was an easy wager to place. I know James Franklin and his failures in big game situations, believe me. There is just no way I am going to be on the side with that large liability, and the squarest play of the weekend.
Big 12 - Arizona State (10-2) -2 vs. Iowa State (10-2): -105, Caesars
I was a bit surprised that this game was the second biggest public wager of the week, but I guess I shouldn’t be too shocked with how well Arizona State has played over the last month. The Sun Devils have won and covered in five straight contests, and are a fantastic 10-2 ATS this season compared to Iowa State’s 7-5 ATS record in the year. In fact, ASU is 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games, a covering machine that is also 7-0 ATS as a favorite.
77% of tickets on the spread are for Arizona State to cover the game, and 76% of the money is also on that side. That means just 23% of bets and 24% of cash like Iowa State, making the Sun Devils a massive public side and sportsbook liability. The books are going to certainly be cheering on the Cyclones in this game to win and stop the covering run of Arizona State.
This one is tough for me, and I view it as more of a pick ‘em. If I can get a +3 with the Cyclones, I’m probably going to bet it. I never like being on a side like ASU in these huge games, there is way too much liability for books.
Mountain West - Boise State (11-1) -4 vs. UNLV (10-2): -110, BetMGM
This one is far less shocking, and I thought it would be the second most public wager of the weekend. RB Ashton Jeanty has made the Broncos a public darling, they just love watching him play and shred defenses on the ground. The problem is their defense sucks, and has been ripped continuously over the last few weeks, and there is no chance I would trust it right now. In fact, the Broncos are just 6-6 ATS this season and have not covered in three of their last five games.
That hasn’t dissuaded people from wagering on them though. A notable 71% of bets are on Boise State to cover the spread, but for the first time, the money is going the opposite direction. Know that 55% of the cash is on UNLV, which is getting just 29% of the tickets on the spread. That says those tickets are worth far more money than the ones on the Broncos.
I like UNLV in this game and think they are going to win the game outright. I think Boise State is overrated because of Jeanty, and I do not think they have the defense to make any sort of noise. The Rebels probably should have beat them last time, and I think they get revenge in this one.
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