#15 Oklahoma ML +235 vs. #6 Tennessee
The first underdog that I love this week is the No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners, who get a matchup at home against the No. 6 Tennesee Volunteers. Early betting at BetMGM shows that just 30% of the money is on the Sooners to cover the +7.5 in this game, which means that the sportsbook is going to need them in all likelihood to keep this game close. What is a bit worrisome is that 85% of the moneyline handle is also on Oklahoma, with people taking a shot they win this game outright. At a big plus number like this, the book may be rooting for an Oklahoma cover, but a Tennessee win.
Still, these are very early numbers. It is almost guaranteed that the favorite, in this case the Vols, will generate a lot of public money on game day. I would also expect them to be in a bunch of square moneyline parlays. I will continue to monitor this market, but Oklahoma is certainly an underdog to watch this weekend.
#18 Michigan ML +180 vs. #11 USC
Absolutely no one wants a piece of Michigan with the way they have looked this season. They have two mediocre wins over very overwhelmed teams, and a blowout loss to the Texas Longhorns. Now, they have to take on the No. 11 ranked USC Trojans, who are 2-0 with a win over a ranked LSU team. They are also coached by Lincoln Riley, a very public coach that square bettors love to back.
The early betting splits are what you would expect. Just 17% of early money is on the Wolverines to cover the +6, which means a whopping 83% of cash is on USC to cover. I would be totally shocked if the sportsbook didn’t need Michigan to show up in a big way for this game. On the moneyline, 46% of the cash is on Michigan, much more even. Still, late money will probably be all over the Trojans in this game.
Buffalo ML +460 vs. #23 Northern Illinois
Now, I don’t have the early betting splits for this game, so I can’t make a prediction based off of those exact figures. However, I have been working in this industry long enough to know a trap spot and a perfect opportunity to fade a team that will be very public, and that is the case here. The last time we saw NIU play football, they were walking out of South Bend with a victory over a top-5 Notre Dame team. They are 2-0 and coming off of a huge, program defining win. What could go wrong against Buffalo, who they are favored to beat by two touchdowns at home?
This is the perfect spot to fade the Huskies off of that win. The public is very likely to be all over them after their recent performance, and they are at home here against what is considered a very weak opponent that just got blown out 38-0 the last time they took the field. Obviously, at +460, this is unlikely to happen. However, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Bulls won the game outright, and I’ll almost certainly be on their +14 spread.
Western Kentucky ML +115 vs. Toledo
Technically, this is an upset, even though we are only getting +115 odds here. My formula of fading teams off of big wins once again comes into play here after the Toledo Rockets blew out Mississippi State 41-17 on the road. It isn’t very often that a Mid-American team goes into an SEC stadium and destroys the home team, but that is what we saw here, and you know that means we have to fade them here the week after. They are 3-0 with a big win under their belt, and the public will love them here against Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers only game that got the public’s attention was their 63-0 loss to Alabama in Week 1. You think square bettors are going to be all over them here against a team that just crushed an SEC school? No shot. This is the ultimate let-down spot on the road for the Rockets after that win. I’ll take the +3 with WKU, but they will probably just win the game outright.
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