PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — Pennsylvania hasn’t had single-party control of the governor’s mansion for three consecutive terms since the 1960s. GOP leaders in the state are hoping to keep it that way after two terms of Democrat Tom Wolf.
The Pennsylvania primary is coming right up on Tuesday, May 17. KYW Newsradio is taking a look at the packed Republican field fighting to go up against presumed Democratic candidate Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is unopposed in his primary.
Related Jawncast: Is it too late? PA Republicans try to stop Doug Mastriano just days before the primary
The conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court could drastically alter state-level politics for decades, potentially giving governors more power over issues such as abortion and gun rights.
While the candidates are very outspoken about issues like gun control, crime, and abortion, those have effectively become a litmus test in the modern Republican Party, according to Millersville University political analyst Terry Madonna.
“In the debates that have taken place, you have to struggle to find differences. They agree on 95% of the big issues," Madonna said.
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He pointed out that while the candidates each favor a ban on abortion, they do have slight differences in their approach, with some backing an all-out ban and others allowing certain exceptions.
Even though reproductive rights have taken center stage, pocket-book issues and inflation are still in the minds of many voters. No surprise, each of the nine candidates seeking the Republican nomination for governor is quick to lay the blame for inflation and rising costs on Democrats like Gov. Tom Wolf and President Joe Biden.
Recent polling shows four of those Republicans have pulled ahead. Pa. Sen. Doug Mastriano is trailed by former Lehigh Valley Rep. Lou Barletta, former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain, and businessman and former Delaware County Councilman David White.
Meanwhile, state party leaders are trying for a last-second Hail Mary to block a far-right candidate from grabbing the nomination.
Mastriano and the Donald Trump effect
Pennsylvania Republican leaders decided not to endorse anyone when they met in early February.
But days before the election, they decided they did not want to roll the dice with Central Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano, whom they feel is too far right and too unpredictable.
Mastriano has polled steadily around 25%.
Party leaders looked at the three candidates behind him, each polling in the teens, and asked two of them to drop out, with the idea being those two could throw their support behind one candidate to try to catch Mastriano.
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But the campaigns for Barletta, McSwain, and White all said they are staying in the race, and each of them thinks they can win.
“If I was to draw up the Republican that I think would be the best model general election candidate in Pennsylvania, I don't think Doug Mastriano comes to mind," said Chris Borick, a professor of political science and the director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College.
Mastriano has built a solid following by attacking Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf on pandemic protocols, and calling for an audit of the 2020 election.
Borick said while that strategy will do well in the primary, he wonders how it will play in the general election against Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
"If I was Josh Shapiro, and I'm kind of saying 'Who would I most want to run against on the Republican side?' I think Doug Mastriano may be at the top of the list," said Borick.
Shapiro has already been using that playbook, paying for a commercial Mastriano says will help him with former President Donald Trump’s base.
On Pennsylvania's economy
Mastriano says not only would increased natural gas production be good for Pennsylvania’s economy, but it would also help national security.
"This will safeguard our allies overseas and reduce the chances of war with Vladimir Putin in Russia, by taking us off of Russian oil and gas," he said.
Mastriano says he would strip down regulations, and work to lower taxes on businesses.
"Everyone needs to get out there and work if you're able to, but we have to get the government off our backs, out of our wallets. That's how you reopen the state."
On abortion
Mastriano said he believes life begins at conception but recognizes the politics of the issue. He has co-sponsored a bill that would limit abortions to the time before a heartbeat is detected, generally about six weeks into a pregnancy.
“This is a national catastrophe, and so we're going to move with alacrity, with speed on the heartbeat bill, and we're gonna get it down," said Mastriano.
Mastriano added he does not believe there should be any exceptions to a ban on abortion.
On gun rights
All of the GOP candidates agreed to sign a so-called "constitutional carry" bill, allowing any legal gun owner to carry a concealed weapon without an additional permit.
“The U.S. Constitution says the right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed," said Mastriano. "Our state constitution goes further and so shall not be questioned. I'm sick and tired of the radical left using tragedy to exploit their political agenda.”
Meet the candidate
Mastriano is an Army veteran who served in Desert Storm. Elected to the state Senate in 2019, he’s a firebrand politician who often quotes biblical scripture. He has built a solid base by criticizing the Wolf administration on COVID-19 pandemic protocols and calling for an audit of the 2020 election because, like former President Donald Trump, Mastriano has made unfounded and since-discredited claims of widespread voting fraud.
“They see somebody they can relate to,” he says of voters. “I was a janitor and did blue-collar jobs as a union member and had to work my way to the top. There was no silver spoon given to me.”
Mastriano paid for buses to take Pennsylvanians to the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021. On Feb. 15, 2022, the U.S. House committee investigating the deadly U.S. Capitol insurrection subpoenaed Mastriano. He insists he left before things got violent.
In the state Senate, Mastriano was barred from closed-door Republican caucus hearings and stripped of a committee chairmanship over accusations that he was working against the group and was only out to further his own brand.
Barletta and the Trump effect
Lou Barletta has taken criticism for losing a U.S. Senate race in 2018 to Bob Casey by 14 points.
Borick noted that 2018 was a difficult year for Republicans. He said Barletta was one of the first in Congress to endorse Trump, but he wonders if the populists in Pennsylvania have moved on.
“Is he (Barletta) a little bit passe for Republican voters, given that he didn't succeed in 2018 and you have a new, maybe even better brand if you will [with] Doug Mastriano?” Borick asked.
On Pennsylvania's economy
Barletta points specifically at environmental policies and the Department of Environmental Protection under the Wolf administration.
"They use DEP right now as a weapon to stop businesses. DEP stands for 'don't expect permits,'" he said. "We're going to change all that. We're going to unleash our natural gas, get it to the world. That's our future.'
On education
Barletta says he’s hearing from parents who are concerned about how race relations and American history are being taught in schools.
"Here in Pennsylvania, we're not going to teach children to hate each other, we're going to teach them to love each other and, and to love their country."
On abortion
“I would sign any bill that comes to my desk that would protect the life of the unborn, and I have made exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother," said Barletta.
On crime
Barletta said as part of a stronger stance on crime, he’d make sure law enforcement is supported.
“We need to stand with our police officers," said Barletta. "We need to make sure that our police officers not only have the funding that they need, but the respect that they deserve.”
Meet the candidate
Lou Barletta first appeared on the national radar as mayor of Hazleton, when he helped push through a controversial ordinance that fined landlords if they rented to undocumented immigrants.
“I was the first in the country to pass a law to deal with that issue,” he said.
Barletta was one of the first members of Congress to endorse Donald Trump when he ran for president. He welcomes voters to look up his record, his voting history, and the battles he has chosen to take on.
“We've been let down so many times by people who make promises in campaigns and never fulfill those promises. I do have a record, and people know that I'll fight for them,” he said.
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McSwain and the Trump effect
Borick said that on paper, former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain looked like a solid contender. The former Marine and prosecutor painted himself as the converstive outsider.
“Then he gets gets a negative endorsement from the most powerful figure in the Republican Party," said Borick. "It really does shift the dynamic.”
That “figure” is Trump who attacked McSwain. The former president said that as a U.S. attorney, he should have done more to investigate since-unfounded allegations of fraud in the 2020 election.
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“I'm very proud of my record, and I'm proud that President Trump appointed me to be U.S. Attorney. And I'm not going to lash out at him. That's not my style. I just want people to judge me based on my record," said McSwain in response.
But the former president hasn’t actually made an endorsement in the race. That’s a bit of a surprise to Madonna.
“Now it could be that given the fact that there are nine candidates, the race is pretty close, that he didn't feel he had to get into it," Madonna said.
"But I think that was a surprise to many observers."
On Pennsylvania's economy
Bill McSwain says Pennsylvania should tap into its natural gas reserves and increase drilling and fracking: "The governor can help Pennsylvania turn on the spigot for natural gas. That is literally what we need to do."
On education
"I'm a big proponent of school choice," McSwain said. "I believe in accountability and competition in education. So education can be a gateway to a better life for all Pennsylvanians' children."
On abortion
Bill McSwain calls himself “strongly pro-life.”
“I have stated very clearly during this campaign that I would provide exceptions for rape, incest, and for the life of the mother only," he said.
On crime
McSwain said bail reform has gone too far. He plans to work to make sure people charged with violent crimes are kept behind bars pending trial.
“We have a revolving door of criminal justice," said McSwain. "People get arrested for serious violent felonies, and they're out on the street the next day.”
Meet the candidate
McSwain says voters should consider his lack of a voting record, saying, “I am the only candidate who is a true conservative outsider, not a career politician.”
McSwain was the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, appointed by Donald Trump — though Trump has attacked McSwain, accusing him of not properly investigating unfounded and since-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election.
“I prosecuted voter fraud. I put people in jail for voter fraud,” McSwain said. “Just like I put people in jail for torching police cars and rioting and looting and violating their oaths.”
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White and the Trump effect
Pennsylvania Sen. Kim Ward, the GOP floor leader in the state Senate, said Mastriano may appeal to base voters in the primary, but in her words, “the Democrats will destroy him with swing votes.”
She is backing Dave White, a steamfitter who started his own HVAC company and was on Delaware County Council.
Borick said that while White is addressing issues that appeal to the populist Trump side of the party, he is leading with the fact he is a businessman.
“That may be, for more moderate Republicans, just the type of option that they are interested in turning to, in comparison to the more ideologically- driven individuals like Doug Mastriano.”
On Pennsylvania's economy
White says the state should not only tap into natural gas but also set up infrastructure to be able to ship natural gas to other parts of the country and overseas — "by leasing the right-of-ways on the Turnpike and and in the Northeast Extension and the interstates, so we can put pipelines there, so we can get it down to the southeast, where we can export it."
White says another way to jumpstart the state’s economy is to improve the workforce.
"I'm a vo-tech student," he said. "We have to expand vocational education so we can have the workforce needed."
On abortion
White, like Mastriano, also said no exceptions in his anti-abortion stance, pointing to his adult son Brian who is special needs.
“I believe every child has a gift. I believe in the sanctity of life, and I would be a governor that would protect life," he said.
On crime
White said he would establish a state-level special prosecutor who could prosecute violent crimes in Philadelphia.
“If a Larry Krasner doesn't want to prosecute criminals and hold them accountable, I will," White said. "I will go around them [and] work with the local police departments in whatever district it is.”
Meet the candidate
White was a Delaware County councilman. A steamfitter, he says 20 years ago he and his wife started what is now an $85 million-a-year HVAC business at their kitchen table.
“What is different between me and everyone else running? You know, I have a story of background. I'm living the American dream. I want to make those same opportunities available to all the people in Pennsylvania,” White said.
However, he says, that requires changes in permits, taxes, and regulations, to make Pennsylvania more friendly to business.
Also on the ballot
The four other candidates in the race are each polling in the low single-digits. Muhlenberg political science professor and polling director Chris Borick says it’s unlikely any of them will challenge.
"Finding a way that one of those candidates now emerges at this point of the race, without the resources, without the name recognition, would be fairly unprecedented," he said.
Longtime central Pennsylvania political strategist Charlie Gerow, Poconos-based heart surgeon Nche Zama, Pittsburgh-area attorney and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale will be on the ballot.
Pa. Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman dropped out of the race just days before the primary election, opting to support Lou Barletta and urging his fellow candidates to do the same. He went all in on the governor’s race, not seeking re-election for his senate seat, but his campaign never really got off the ground, polling in the single digits.
Read more about all of the candidates here.
EDITOR'S NOTE: On May 12, 2022, Jake Corman withdrew his candidacy and threw his support behind Lou Barletta. This article has been changed to reflect this.
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